


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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884 FXUS62 KTAE 200524 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 124 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Minor updates to temps/dews as the seabreeze moves inland. Main concern overnight will be the development of fog. The 18z HREF and some of the other guidance is hitting it hardest from the FL Big Bend into Southwest GA west of I-75. Cannot rule out some pockets of dense fog in the aforementioned areas, with the HREF showing a 30-40% chance of vsby less than a half mile. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Mid level ridging over the area tonight will begin to shift southeastward towards the Peninsula on Tuesday as the next frontal system pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley. Dry conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday, although moisture will be gradually increasing through the day with southwesterly winds overhead. This setup will continue the unseasonably warm temperature trend, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s and highs climbing into the upper 80s near the coast and low to mid 90s inland. Max heat indices may approach 100F in the afternoon, so please take caution if working or spending time outdoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 A cold front will be approaching the region during the day on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Although a few storms may become strong, severe weather is not expected at this time due to the upper level support of a shortwave trough will be lifting well to our north as the front passes through; allowing for mid-level dry air to enter and entrainment limiting buoyancy. PoPs for Wednesday range from 40-60 percent during the afternoon. Precip should end Wednesday night. Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s, and are expected to cool to the mid 60s Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 A brief respite in afternoon high temperatures will follow the cold frontal passage late Wednesday night / Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the high 80s / low 90s, with morningtime low temperatures hovering around the low- mid 60s. By Saturday, high pressure quickly begins building to our west, allowing for afternoon temperatures to climb back up into the low- mid 90s for much of the region, with temperatures staying closer to the upper 80s for our northernmost counties. Large scale subsidence and dry air will keep PoPs near zero across the CWA through the end of the forecast period. Northerly/north- westerly flow resulting from being on the eastern periphery of the building ridge will continue to advect drier continental air, keeping daytime RHs low (~30%) through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 MVFR visibilities are expected to develop at all terminals 08-09Z with TLH having the potential to go IFR. Ceilings will also be IFR at that terminal and DHN. VFR conditions will return by around 14Z with gusty south to southwest winds during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Gentle to moderate southerly breezes are expected ahead of a cold front that is expected pass over the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Ahead of the front, winds may increase for our nearshore waters, but is expected to remain below Advisory criteria. Showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along the front. Following the front, high pressure will build over the region leading to dry conditions and light winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Dry weather is expected to continue Tuesday before a cold front pushes into the area on Wednesday with scattered showers and storms along with it. High dispersions are expected for the next several days with high mixing heights and breezy transport winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Only light amounts of rainfall is expected over the next several days. No flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 91 67 92 / 0 60 0 10 Panama City 76 86 70 87 / 10 40 10 10 Dothan 73 89 64 88 / 20 40 0 0 Albany 72 91 64 90 / 10 40 0 0 Valdosta 72 93 66 92 / 0 50 0 10 Cross City 70 89 68 89 / 0 30 10 20 Apalachicola 75 85 71 84 / 0 20 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Wool MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Montgomery