Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 032236
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
636 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

VFR conditions are forecast through tomorrow. Winds will be light.
High level clouds will persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [223 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Weak ridging continues to dominate the area through tomorrow. An
upper level shortwave has brought high clouds to the area today and
some of these higher level clouds will stick around through
tomorrow. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s with highs
tomorrow in the low to mid 80s, both above normal.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday night through Sunday night]...

The ridge will be flattened during this period with embedded
short wave impulses moving through it across the Gulf Coast
region. Surface high pressure will shift east allowing low level
winds to veer to easterly. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and forcing for ascent to maintain slight chance PoPs for most of
the area for Sunday afternoon, slightly higher over our eastern
zones due to increased convergence along the sea breeze boundary.
Temperatures will be warm with Sunday`s highs in the lower to mid
80s. Overnight lows will be around 60, about 10 degrees above
normal.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

This looks to be a very unsettled period with almost daily chances
for strong to severe storms. The upper ridge axis will drift west of
the area over the Lower Mississippi Valley putting the forecast area
in a northwest flow regime. There will be plenty of shear for
organized storms, but instability will be a limiting factor. While
strong to severe storms will be possible each day from Tuesday
through the end of the period, Wednesday looks to be the mostly like
day for severe due to higher instability.


.MARINE...

Conditions will be almost summerlike over the marine area through
the weekend with light easterly winds shifting to onshore in
afternoon sea breezes. Onshore flow will increase a bit by Tuesday.
ON Wednesday, look for westerly winds increasing to near 15 knots at
times.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will be dry Saturday with RH values in the mid 20
percent range. With increasing moisture, RH values will be above
critical thresholds on Sunday. Even with the dry air on Saturday,
winds will be light and thus red flag warning conditions will not
be met.


.HYDROLOGY...

Minimal to no rainfall is expected through Saturday night. daily
rain chances commence Sunday afternoon, but at no point next week
are we expecting rainfall totals to result in any flooding.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  85  60  84  60 /   0   0   0  20  10
Panama City   60  81  65  80  64 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dothan        56  82  61  83  60 /   0   0   0  20  10
Albany        56  81  59  81  60 /   0   0   0  20   0
Valdosta      55  82  59  81  59 /   0   0   0  30  10
Cross City    54  85  59  81  60 /   0   0   0  30  10
Apalachicola  59  78  64  77  64 /   0   0   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Wool


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