884
FXUS62 KTAE 200524
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Minor updates to temps/dews as the seabreeze moves inland.

Main concern overnight will be the development of fog. The 18z
HREF and some of the other guidance is hitting it hardest from
the FL Big Bend into Southwest GA west of I-75. Cannot rule
out some pockets of dense fog in the aforementioned areas, with
the HREF showing a 30-40% chance of vsby less than a half mile.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Mid level ridging over the area tonight will begin to shift
southeastward towards the Peninsula on Tuesday as the next frontal
system pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley. Dry
conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday, although
moisture will be gradually increasing through the day with
southwesterly winds overhead. This setup will continue the
unseasonably warm temperature trend, with lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s and highs climbing into the upper 80s near the coast and
low to mid 90s inland. Max heat indices may approach 100F in the
afternoon, so please take caution if working or spending time
outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

A cold front will be approaching the region during the day on
Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. Although a few storms may become strong, severe weather
is not expected at this time due to the upper level support of a
shortwave trough will be lifting well to our north as the front
passes through; allowing for mid-level dry air to enter and
entrainment limiting buoyancy. PoPs for Wednesday range from 40-60
percent during the afternoon. Precip should end Wednesday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s, and are
expected to cool to the mid 60s Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

A brief respite in afternoon high temperatures will follow the
cold frontal passage late Wednesday night / Thursday morning. High
temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the high 80s / low
90s, with morningtime low temperatures hovering around the low-
mid 60s. By Saturday, high pressure quickly begins building to our
west, allowing for afternoon temperatures to climb back up into
the low- mid 90s for much of the region, with temperatures staying
closer to the upper 80s for our northernmost counties. Large
scale subsidence and dry air will keep PoPs near zero across the
CWA through the end of the forecast period. Northerly/north-
westerly flow resulting from being on the eastern periphery of the
building ridge will continue to advect drier continental air,
keeping daytime RHs low (~30%) through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

MVFR visibilities are expected to develop at all terminals 08-09Z
with TLH having the potential to go IFR. Ceilings will also be IFR
at that terminal and DHN. VFR conditions will return by around 14Z
with gusty south to southwest winds during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Gentle to moderate southerly breezes are expected ahead of a cold
front that is expected pass over the waters Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Ahead of the front, winds may increase for our
nearshore waters, but is expected to remain below Advisory
criteria. Showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along
the front. Following the front, high pressure will build over the
region leading to dry conditions and light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Dry weather is expected to continue Tuesday before a cold front
pushes into the area on Wednesday with scattered showers and
storms along with it. High dispersions are expected for the next
several days with high mixing heights and breezy transport winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Only light amounts of rainfall is expected over the next several
days. No flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  91  67  92 /   0  60   0  10
Panama City   76  86  70  87 /  10  40  10  10
Dothan        73  89  64  88 /  20  40   0   0
Albany        72  91  64  90 /  10  40   0   0
Valdosta      72  93  66  92 /   0  50   0  10
Cross City    70  89  68  89 /   0  30  10  20
Apalachicola  75  85  71  84 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery