Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
313 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

High pressure remains in control across the Tri-State region today
with the main weather story being the heat. High temperatures will
generally run around 5 degrees above normal values region-wide, with
readings soaring into the mid to upper 90s across inland locales and
low along the coast. Heat indicies will not run much higher than
these values, due to drier boundary layer conditions in place across
the region.

Though high pressure is in control, there is an elevated chance for
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Florida Panhandle
this afternoon. These storms are expected to initiate during the
early afternoon hours along the ridge axis as convective temp is
breached. CAMs are indicating that there will be ~1000 J/Kg of CAPE
to work with across the Panhandle, with those values increasing to
nearly 2000 J/Kg along the immediate coast. Point soundings across
the region are indicating inverted v boundary layers with some
pockets of drying in the mid-levels (700-500mb) which would support
some momentum transfer to the surface. Will have to watch for a few
strong wind gusts this afternoon, especially as storms approached
the coast. A few additional storms will be possible in the late
afternoon along far western portions of our FL Panhandle Counties
and the AL Wiregrass as an MCV pushes southward into southern
Mississippi and Alabama.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

There could be some storms in the central FL panhandle and SE AL
still around after sunset tonight and will dissipate by midnight. The
atmosphere becomes fairly capped after midnight with a mid level
subsidence inversion returning. This will keep any showers overnight
over the waters where a shortwave will be moving westward overnight.

Southerly flow aloft returns on Friday ushering in slightly higher
moisture with westerly flow at the surface. Some of the offshore
storms may sneak onshore in the morning but the main source of
convection will be from the east as the eastern seaboard sea breeze
moves into our counties after 1-2PM EDT with scattered storms
areawide in the afternoon. Soundings aren`t overly impressive for
severe weather with a fairly saturated profile, low shear and low
DCAPE. The inverted V sounding at the surface could enhance winds
enough for some gusty winds out of the storms. High will be in the
lower 90s. The GFS shows a backdoor front/trough moving west to east
Friday night leaving chances of rain/storms in all night with
highest chances over the water. Messy overall synoptic features
continue Sat with the local area on the eastern side of a weak upper
ridge and a weak high pressure area at the surface. Storms will move
in from the southeast with a weak upper low enhancing the coverage as
we move into the afternoon. Not a lot of dry air in these soundings
but instability will be higher. So thinking these will be heavy rain
and small hail producers with an isolated strong wind gust or two
possible. Some of these may linger into the overnight hours. Highs
remain in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The southeastern states remains under weak ridging with light winds
all the way through the atmosphere. We should start to see the sea
breeze push inland both Sunday and Monday with not as much inland
extent Tuesday as winds aloft turn more westerly. A weak shortwave
moves in from the west Wed and remains near the area through Friday.
Soundings are also impressive through mid weak with tall, thick CAPE
and surface CAPE over 3000 J/KG even in the GFS. Shear is weak but
some strong storms are possible any day next week. With the ridging,
temps will start to warm with highs warming from around 90 on Sunday
to the mid 90s Mon-Fri. This pushes heat indices to 102-106.


[Through 06Z Friday]

VFR conditions through the period with winds generally out of the
east-northeast AOB 10kts. Expecting sct TSRA to develop later this
afternoon across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend, potentially
affecting ECP and TLH. Confidence is higher in storms affecting ECP,
thus went with a PROB 30 for TSRA from 20-24Z. Will have to monitor
model trends ahead of the next TAF issuance for TLH.



Northeast winds around 10 knots prevails through tonight with
winds turning more southeast by Friday and remaining southeast
around 10 knots through the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the waters each day. Seas will
remain 1 to 2 feet outside of thunderstorms.



Elevated transport winds and mixing heights will yield high
dispersions across the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon.
Otherwise, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as RHs
will remain above critical levels. Portions of the Florida Panhandle
will see brief bouts of wetting rains this afternoon.



Local rivers are below action stage and steady. Afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected this week. The
stronger storms with heavier downpours may produce localized
flooding especially ponding on roadways and flooding of low lying
areas. Less than one inch of rain if forecast over the next three



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   97  73  92  74  91 /  30  20  40  20  50
Panama City   90  76  89  77  88 /  50  20  30  30  50
Dothan        94  72  92  72  91 /  20  10  30  20  50
Albany        95  73  91  73  91 /   0  10  30  20  40
Valdosta      95  72  91  73  92 /  10  10  50  20  50
Cross City    94  73  91  74  89 /  20  20  50  40  50
Apalachicola  92  77  87  77  87 /  40  30  30  30  50




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