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FXUS62 KTAE 281103
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
703 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

IFR conditions will improve this morning to MVFR/VFR as ceilings
lift. Southeasterly winds will become southerly through the day
and pick up in intensity by late in the TAF period with
deteriorating conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [307 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Hurricane Zeta has moved into the southern Gulf of Mexico over the
last 12 hours and is now beginning to accelerate northwards towards
the central Gulf Coast early this morning. While much of the area
will begin to feel the influence of Hurricane Zeta through the
afternoon, the greatest impacts from Zeta are anticipated to begin
later tonight and into Thursday (more on that in the next section).
For today, winds will gradually become more southerly with low level
moisture continuing to stream in. Expect isolated/scattered showers
with most of the coverage expected to be later in the day as
conditions warm. High temperatures will range from the low 80s
across cloud-covered areas of SE Alabama to the upper 80s across the
SE Big Bend.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

Hurricane Zeta will continue to lift northward to the central Gulf
coast today, likely making landfall near SE Louisiana later
today. After landfall, Zeta will quickly accelerate to the
northeast tonight ahead of an upper level disturbance moving
across the Plains. Impacts (highlighted below) will ramp up across
our CWA for tonight and tomorrow.

Winds: Tropical storm force winds with gusts of 40-50 mph will be
possible across the western portions of southeast Alabama and
Florida Panhandle. These stronger gusts may lead to downed trees and
powerlines, resulting in scattered power outages. Spend some time
today making sure your devices are charged.

Tornadoes: As Zeta moves northeast after landfall, low level shear
across the tri-state region will increase with 0-1km shear values in
the 30-35kt range tonight into tomorrow. This will result in an
increased tornado threat and SPC has highlighted western portions
of the CWA in a marginal to slight risk for today and much of the
region in a marginal risk for tomorrow. Any tornado that develops
will likely be quick to do so and fast moving and thus it`s a
good reminder to spend some time today reviewing where your
tornado safe place is and making sure you have multiple ways to
get the warnings, especially since some of this threat is
overnight.

Storm Surge: Storm surge inundation will be more limited with this
event, although minor coastal flooding is possible. 1-2 feet of
inundation is possible across the eastern Florida Panhandle with 2-3
feet of inundation possible in Apalachee Bay.

Marine/Beach Hazards: With the stronger winds, surf heights will be
high, which may lead to beach erosion. In addition, there is the
high risk for rip currents through Friday.

Once Zeta lifts northward into the Carolinas Thursday morning, a
cold front and associated upper level trough will push through
Thursday night. This will bring in cooler and drier air to the
region for Thursday night through the remainder of the short term.
Highs on Friday will be limited to the low to mid 70s, very pleasant
for this time of year!


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Cool and dry conditions prevail as a ridge temporarily builds over
the region following the departure of a frontal system merging
with Zeta this weekend. Subsidence from surface high pressure,
combined with north/northeast winds will suppress convection.
Early next week, a longwave trough swings from the Great Lakes
into the mid-Atlantic states and drags a dry cold front across our
area. These features should reinforce the cool, stable airmass and
allow surface high pressure to dominate the eastern US. Therefore,
fair-weather and north/northeast winds are expected for the
remainder of the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the upper 60s/low 70s, with lows primarily in the 50s. Some of our
northern areas could even see upper 40s on Tues night.


.MARINE...

Hurricane Zeta is tracking across the Gulf and expected to make
landfall near southeast Louisiana this evening. While the center
of the system is well to the west, hazardous marine conditions are
expected. Seas have already been ramping up with winds expected
to increase this afternoon. Have upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning west of Mexico Beach with the Small Craft Advisory
remaining east of there (except for the far eastern nearshore
waters). Even behind the tropical system and front, winds remain
elevated around 10-15 knots over the weekend with seas of 2-3
feet.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the next 2 days as
the area begins to feel the impacts from Zeta. Dispersions are
expected to be on the higher side the few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

While rain chances are on the increase particularly for tonight
and tomorrow, Hurricane Zeta will quickly be moving past the
region, thus limiting rainfall potential. Widespread amounts of
1-2 inches of rain are possible across the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama with locally higher amounts. Overall, the flash
flood threat with this event is low. River flooding is not
expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for tonight/tomorrow. Spotters
should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage
(while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling
the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   85  76  82  55  73 /  20  40  70  10   0
Panama City   84  76  81  54  71 /  30  70  80   0   0
Dothan        83  73  81  50  69 /  30  80  60   0   0
Albany        85  75  83  53  72 /  30  40  70   0   0
Valdosta      87  74  83  55  73 /  30  20  60  10   0
Cross City    87  75  85  59  74 /  20  20  50  30   0
Apalachicola  82  76  82  55  72 /  20  40  80   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South Walton.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Holmes-North Walton-
     South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

     High Surf Warning until 6 PM CDT Thursday for South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Geneva.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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