Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 032025
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Expect clearing to spread gradually south this afternoon with
increasing sunshine across the area. Winds will gradually slacken
as the surface low off the SE Coast moves away and high pressure
builds in. The combination of clearing skies, light winds and a
dampened ground from recent rains could lead to some fog formation
tonight with the best chance across our GA counties. Wall to wall
sunshine then expected for Thursday under high pressure with
afternoon readings close to our increasingly warm seasonal norms.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

With high pressure dominating the first half of the short term, we
can expected clear, cool, and dry conditions through Friday morning.
Throughout Friday afternoon cloudiness increases ahead of the Gulf
system on Saturday. Expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid
40s, daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 60s for the
northern half of our CWA, and in the low 70s for the southern
half.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A shortwave will dig south into southeast CONUS throughout the day
on Friday and merge into a longwave trough positioned over the East
Coast. According to current model guidance, this shortwave keeps
most of its associated shower activity offshore throughout the day
on Saturday. This is expected to be a light event with limited upper-
level support, however, a reinforced shot of cooler air is expected
to advect into our region after the system passes through the
Florida Peninsula. Once this shortwave clears out of the area
Saturday evening we`ll once again be clear, cool, and dry through
the remainder of the long term. Expect overnight lows to be in the
40s, with daytime highs in the 60s rebounding into the low 70s next
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

MVFR ceilings will become VFR as the cloud deck mixes out and
drier air flows in from the north. Could be a little patchy fog
tonight esply along the I-75 "fog-belt" and have included a
mention at VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

Northerly winds will continue to decrease this afternoon. Light to
moderate northerly winds will become easterly Friday. Northeasterly
winds will be moderate to strong this weekend. The next chance for
rain will be Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Recent widespread rains will preclude critical fire weather
conditions through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Past 48 hours rainfall analysis shows a swath of 2.5-3 inches of
rain from near Columbia, Alabama eastward through Tifton, Georgia.
This rain is affecting primarily the Withlacoochee Basin,
Ochlockonee Basin, and portions of the lower Chattahoochee. Based on
observations this afternoon, it`s looking increasingly likely that
we`ll have another period of minor flooding near Valdosta and
potentially later down at US-84. There does not appear to be enough
water coming down the Little River side to lead to minor flooding at
Hahira.

Within the Ochlockonee Basin, the heaviest rains fell at the very
top of the basin, and we`re continuing to see steady rises at
Coolidge. It`s possible that Thomasville does get to minor flood,
but it may take a little more time then previously thought given the
rainfall distribution across the basin. Should Thomasville get to
minor flood, then a short period of minor flooding is possible at
Concord later this weekend.

The lower Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers are continuing to
rise. A large swath of that rain fell just above Columbia, and that,
plus extra releases from Walter F George are moving toward the
Woodruff Pool. Latest guidance from the USACE suggests a slight
reduction in previous release plans, however, this still may be
sufficient to produce lower end minor flooding in the next 36 hours
at Blountstown.

Elsewhere across the region, minor flooding is ongoing in the lower
Suwannee between Branford and Rock Bluff. As explored in previous
forecasts, there isn`t enough water moving through this portion of
the Suwannee to get Wilcox or Manatee Springs to their respective
flood stages. However, water levels in this portion of the Suwannee
will remain above normal for some time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   44  71  46  70  49 /   0   0   0   0  30
Panama City   46  70  50  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  40
Dothan        40  69  45  66  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Albany        40  69  43  66  46 /   0   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      42  70  44  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  30
Cross City    46  73  45  73  50 /   0   0   0   0  40
Apalachicola  47  69  50  67  52 /   0   0   0   0  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Johnstone
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM...Oliver
AVIATION...Johnstone
MARINE...Johnstone
FIRE WEATHER...Johnstone
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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