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000
FXUS62 KTAE 250733
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Light showers in SE AL continue to dissipate and it should be dry by
4AM ET. With the clouds starting to clear out, low stratus clouds
are already forming in parts of SW GA, including in Albany. Parts of
Walton/Bay county are also starting to see some low clouds. These
will lift shortly after sunrise.

Synoptically, an upper trough will dig into the Midwest today with a
weak upper ridge over the local area. WPC shows a stationary front
over SE AL/SW GA counties remaining today but I can`t really find
much evidence of a boundary. It looks more like the sea breeze will
start to kick in after about 17/18z and move northward, with hires
guidance in very good agreement. A weak shortwave will move
southwest to northeast along the ridge, aiding in moving the line of
storms north. Would expect some very efficient lightning producers
once again but with less dry air in the mid levels, storms shouldn`t
be as strong, although they will be deep. PW values remain over 2
inches so heavy rain is likely but the storms should have some
movement once winds shift from easterly to southerly behind the sea
breeze.

Highs are all over the place model wise and it seems like it all
depends on when the line of storms moves through. For TLH as an
example, the high is forecast anywhere from 85 to 95. Have generally
trended towards the middle with highs in the mid 80s to around 90
since we should get the storms late enough to have sufficient
heating before.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast. At the
surface a weak low near Mississippi will move through the Southeast.
Not expecting a frontal passage but winds will become more westerly
on Tuesday. A wet pattern will be in place due to the aforementioned
trough and surface feature. POPs will be 60 to 80 percent in most
locations. Heavy downpours are likely with the stronger
thunderstorms. PWAT values will be around 2 inches or higher. Highs
will be in the upper 80s and near 90. Lows will be in the lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels the trough over the Southeast will retreat by
late this week. At the surface a cool front will move through on
Wednesday. Northerly low level winds will become easterly by Friday.
The best chance for thunderstorms and rain will be on Wednesday with
widespread POPs of 50 to 65 percent. Highs will be in the lower 90s.
Lows will be in the lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

600ft CIGS have settled into ABY already and these lower CIGS are
starting to spread across the area as the mid level clouds clear
out. Highest chances are still at DHN, ABY and VLD but there are
some 2500ft CIGS around ECP and they could go back down at any time.
Went ahead and included TSRA at all terminals given our PoPs of 60-
70% except ABY where confidence is lower and included a PROB30.
Timing of these storms may be off an hour or two earlier or later
than forecast.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwesterly winds will become westerly by Tuesday. Winds will
become northerly late in the week as a cool front moves through.
Winds will be 15 knots or less this week. A wet pattern will be in
place this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible once again today as a
sea breeze moves south to north late this morning into the early
afternoon. Winds will be easterly ahead of the line, shifting to
southerly behind it. Light easterly winds return after sunset.
Patchy fog is possible this morning but otherwise, no fire weather
concerns.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The flood warning for the Steinhatchee River has been cancelled.
Local rivers are mostly steady or falling slowly. Rainfall
accumulations from scattered thunderstorms over the next week is
expected to be around 2-3", with locally higher values. Widespread
flooding is not anticipated, but isolated heavy rainfall could lead
to local flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  74  90  74  91 /  60  40  50  30  60
Panama City   89  76  86  76  87 /  50  40  50  50  50
Dothan        88  72  85  72  88 /  60  60  70  40  70
Albany        86  74  88  74  88 /  50  50  70  50  70
Valdosta      88  72  88  72  89 /  60  50  60  40  70
Cross City    91  74  90  75  89 /  50  40  50  40  50
Apalachicola  87  77  87  76  87 /  50  40  40  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...McD