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FXUS62 KTAE 190542
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
142 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

Strong to severe squall line will cross over the tri state region
overnight through this morning. Timing of the line seems fairly
consistent and used the HRRR and NAM for timing. Again, not much
change in timing from the previous TAF set. Will metwatch and
amend as needed. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys to accompany this
line. Also added stronger gradient winds in the late morning
through afternoon hours well behind the convective line as winds
shift to the northwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [809 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...
A widespread severe weather event is still on tap for late tonight
into Friday morning. Guidance is in good agreement in bringing a
squall line across the area as a deep upper trough moves into the
eastern half of the U.S. Strong to severe storms are currently
ongoing across Louisiana and Mississippi within a large MCS forced
by the lead shortwave. This shortwave will lift northeast through
the evening as the MCS propagates into southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle. This will bring a threat of damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes supported by substantial deep (50+kt)
and low-level (40+kt) shear along with sufficient instability
(MLCAPE 1000-1500j/kg). Outside of QLCS tornadoes, the threat for
stronger supercellular tornadoes is contingent upon the
development of discrete cells ahead of the main squall line. It is
still unclear if such cells will develop, so this will continue
to be monitored.

There is some potential for the line to weaken or become a bit
disorganized during the overnight hours as is moves through the
Panhandle and SE Alabama, with the influence of the lead
shortwave diminishing. However, a trailing shortwave will move
through the base of the trough by morning, resulting in the
strengthening of the low-level jet across the Big Bend into south
central Georgia. This may lead to reintensification of the line
as it moves through the eastern half of the area. Regardless of
any possible weakening, the kinematic environment will support
widespread severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes across the
entire forecast area. Some higher end (60-70kt) gusts cannot be
ruled out with the most intense cells/segments.

Timing-wise, the line is forecast to enter the western zones
between midnight and 2am, before exiting to the east by mid to
late Friday morning.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...
A cooler and drier airmass will push into the region behind the
exiting cold front. Expect lows in the 40s Saturday and Sunday
mornings with highs on Saturday mostly in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Quiet weather will return following the exit of the deep trough and
associated front. Building high pressure will allow highs in the
upper 70s to warm into the low 80s, with lows warming from the upper
40s to the low 60s. The next system won`t approach the region until
late week.


.MARINE...
Winds and seas will continue to increase overnight ahead of the
approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected. While a few gusts to Gale Force are possible, this will
mainly be associated with the thunderstorms moving through the
waters, so have not upgraded to a Gale Warning. Winds and seas
will remain elevated through Friday before gradually diminishing
through the weekend. Light winds and low seas are expected for the
first half of next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...
A line of thunderstorms will move through the region tonight and
Friday morning. High dispersions above 75 are likely Friday and
Saturday Otherwise no fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 1 to 2 inch range with
the system tonight and early Friday. This should not cause any
widespread issues with flooding or river rises.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  49  69  46  77 /  90  10   0   0   0
Panama City   70  52  68  52  72 /  40  20   0   0   0
Dothan        67  46  66  46  75 /  40  10   0   0   0
Albany        71  47  65  46  75 /  90  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      76  49  68  47  76 /  90   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  52  69  48  76 /  90  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  73  53  69  51  73 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Taylor.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp/Skeen
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Camp


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