Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 132012
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
412 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

Dry and clear weather is on the horizon for the near term, so
break out those sunglasses and have go a nice beach day to start
off your weekend. Zonal flow aloft transitions to more
northwesterly on Friday as ridging gradually builds into the
region from the west. At the surface, a dry cool airmass remains
in place over the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
High pressure over the Midwest gradually tracks east across the
Ohio River Valley parking itself over the eastern Ohio River
Valley by the end of the period. As the high pressure shifts east,
northeasterly flow will gradually change to easterly going into
the short term. For temps, below seasonal norms exist with lows
tonight will be in the low to mid 50s north of I-10 and mid to
upper 50s south. High temps on Friday are expected to be generally
in the upper 70s north of I-10, with upper 70s to low 80s south.
Temperatures on Friday will be quite nice given the lower dew
points, so get out and enjoy the beautiful day.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

The fantastic weather continues into the weekend with high
pressure in full control over the area. Deep northwesterly flow
aloft in response to a weak shortwave ridge over the central US will
continue to usher in drier air with surface high pressure
allowing for dry surface conditions to persist. Sensible weather
wise I have nothing more to say than enjoy it. Temperatures will
also be rather comfortable with highs in the low 80s across the
area and lows will actually have some relief dipping into the 50s
both Friday and Saturday night.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Tale of two periods in the long term with dry conditions
persisting at the beginning of the period before rain chances
return in a more summertime like pattern by mid to late next week.
High pressure centered over the area on Sunday will allow for
persistent dry conditions to continue before it slowly drift east
of the area by late Monday as a vigorous upper trough dives into
the Central US. Moisture will increase with each day after Monday
allowing for rain chances to slowly increase from west to east
across the area. You could say we are stuck between a rock and
hard place with stronger upper level disturbances off to our west
and the strong upper ridge over the southwest Atlantic. the
strength of this ridge will determine how far east the better rain
chances but for now scattered chances of showers and
thunderstorms seems possible each day with potentially some better
rain chances slipping into the wiregrass region.

Given the strong ridging to our east and increasing southeasterly
flow, temperatures will return to what the area is more accustomed
too for Mid-May. Temperatures will likely climb into the upper 80s
most of next week with some instances of lower 90s especially by
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will also remain uncomfortable as
surface moisture increases. Expect lows to range in the mid 60s
near the coast and low 60s inland


&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Mixed IFR/MVFR/VFR CIGs currently prevail as clouds continue to
push south and scatter out over the region. The IFR/MVFR
conditions exist over mainly the southern half of the area with
VFR prevailing elsewhere. By later this afternoon, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail as clouds clear over the area. No VIS
restrictions are expected through the period. Winds through the
period will be northeasterly between 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate northeasterly flow persists through Friday
before shifting out of the east this weekend. Cautionary boating
conditions exist from the Atlantic seabreeze tonight, with periods
of cautionary conditions possible for the remainder of the
period. Winds will begin transitioning from east to southeasterly
by late Sunday, with rain and storm chances returning to the
marine area by early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Given the copious amounts of rain the past week there are no
serious fire weather concerns. Afternoon relative humidity values
will range around 30 percent on Friday and Saturday. Some
locations over southwestern Georgia could see min RH values near
25 percent on Saturday. Transport winds will be out of the northeast
into Saturday. Daytime dispersion will good both days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No rain or flooding concerns are expected through the forecast.
River wise, Apalachicola - Blountstown, Choctawhatchee -
Caryville, and Choctawhatchee - Bruce are currently in action
stage. Apalachicola at Blountstown is forecast to drop below by
later tomorrow night. Choctawhatchee near Bruce is expected to
continue to rise through Monday and Choctawhatchee at Caryville
is still expected to crest on Saturday then begin falling.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   54  80  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  80  60  81  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  77  54  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  79  53  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      51  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  83  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  78  62  79  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JEH/88
SHORT TERM...BB/03
LONG TERM...BB/03
AVIATION...JEH/88
MARINE...JEH/88
FIRE WEATHER...BB/03
HYDROLOGY...BB/03


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