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000
FXUS62 KTAE 050510
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
110 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

After an active afternoon, convection has mostly dwindled across
the service area early this evening outside of lingering showers
and thunderstorms sliding southwestward from BMX/FFC where the
atmosphere isn`t as worked over. This activity looks to graze/pass
through the northwest corner of the region and could pose a gusty
wind threat the next couple hrs or so. Later tonight should be
quiet, but mild with widespread lows in the mid 60s.

Rain chances into early tomorrow morning were adjusted to account
for the latest radar and hi-res trends in addition to hourly
temps & dews. Left the mention of patchy fog out of the forecast
since guidance does not show any favorable signals for
development.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

The cumulus field has taken over the CWA this afternoon with
convection starting to fire just east of the I-75 corridor. The best
chances for precip appear to span from Ben Hill Co GA to Bay Co FL,
along and east of the line. Severe weather isn`t anticipated;
however, gusty winds and perhaps some localized areas of heavy rain
may be possible. Precip chances will start to wane around sunset,
with drier conditions forecast overnight. Some localized patchy fog
could be possible along the I-75 corridor tonight if rain is
realized and winds ease. If not, we could see a stratus edge its way
in. Tomorrow, chances for precip increase as a moisture slug from
the Atlantic arrives, especially for our FL counties and GA counties
along the FL border.

Lows for tonight will be in the mid 60s, highs for tomorrow span the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

A brief period of drier weather is forecast as gradually
transition back towards summer like weather. Much of the region
is forecast be dry with SE AL and the FL Panhandle having the best
chances at this time. Highs for Tuesday will be in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Summer returns, with moisture returning for the mid and latter
portion of the work week. Expect afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms and high temperatures upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be on the toastier side as well, and in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire TAF
period at all terminals. There could be a brief
shower/thunderstorm near ECP Monday afternoon as the seabreeze
pushes inland; however, the probabilities of this occurring were
not high enough yet to include in the TAF at this time. Further
updates may need to include VCTS as the forecast becomes more
clear.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are expected into the early evening
hours and will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds,
heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Storms will generally move
from land to offshore during the day. Outside of storms, gentle
to moderate northeast breezes are forecast into tonight with high
pressure building north of the area. Winds and seas are expected
to decrease again for the early to middle part of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

The main fire weather concerns continue to be high dispersions over
the next few days. Tomorrow looks to be the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms which is when a slug of moisture tries to nose its
way into the region. This will be short lived as precip chances then
decrease Monday and Tuesday. By midweek moisture should return to
the region, with seabreeze convection becoming more likely. High
temperatures during this timeframe will gradually increase with
highs spanning the 80s Sunday and upper 80s to low 90s by Tuesday.
MinRH will vary each day, from the mid 30s to about 50 inland, and
between 40 to 60% closer to the coast. Overnight recover is expected
to be good each and generally range from 80 to 90%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

No significant flooding is expected for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  90  68 /  10   0  20   0
Panama City   86  69  85  71 /  10  10  20  10
Dothan        88  66  90  67 /  10   0  30  10
Albany        88  66  92  69 /   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      88  64  92  68 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    90  64  90  67 /  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  82  70  82  70 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR