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000
FXUS62 KTAE 230931
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
531 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

Today, any prevailing restrictions will lift this morning, only
to be reduced at all terminals by periods of SHRA and TSRA. Winds
E-SE shifting to S-SW, at 5 to 10 kts, with higher gusts likely
in TSRA. Tonight, SHRA/TSRA should diminish 00z-03z. Cigs are
expected to lower to MVFR/IFR at ABY, DHN, and ECP after 06z.
Cannot rule out reductions in fog at the other terminals as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [309 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Low pressure has moved inland off the North-Central Gulf of Mexico,
just west of the tri-state region. The main concerns today will be
renewed chances of heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms.

Most of the region stands the chance of precip, especially outside
of the Southeast FL Big Bend, where PoPs increase to 75 pct. Addt`l
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are forecast west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers, and locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches are
possible. WPC Maintains a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over
this area, where localized flash flooding is possible. This threat
may be greatest over the FL Panhandle where 2-3 inches of rainfall
has already occurred. Looking at the Flash Flood Guidance, would
be hard to justify a Flash Flood Watch at this time, unless
forecast amounts increase further. Otherwise, flooding of poor
drainage areas may occur, especially where storms train/in urban
centers.

Turning our attention to the potential for severe weather, much
of the region has the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms,
with SPC outlooking a Marginal Risk, and the main threat being
damaging winds. This threat will increase through the morning and
continue into the evening hours, given the modeled instability
and wind fields.

Highs today ranging from upper 70s west to upper 80s east,
with gusty winds veering from southeast early to southwest,
around 20 mph at times.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

The long-wave pattern will amplify during this period with a trough
digging across the Great Plains and a ridge holding strong off the
Southeast U.S. coast. At the surface, any remnant tropical low will
be well northeast of the area over the Carolinas. That will leave
the forecast area under the influence of the subtropical ridge with a
favorable onshore flow regimes for afternoon sea breeze showers and
storms. PoPs Tuesday will range from about 20% near the coast to 50%
north of U.S. 84 where the sea breeze front and associated outflow
boundaries will arrive closer to peak heating. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with summerlike humidity. By Wednesday,
PoPs will taper from likely over Southeast Alabama to slight
chance over the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Looks for highs around
90.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The flow will become more progressive during this period as a system
pushing into the Pacific Northwest help kick the central U.S. trough
eastward. The trough axis will reach us on Friday, however the
associated surface front will be moving slowly across the region
Thursday night and Friday. Highest PoPs in the likely to
categorical range will occur on Thursday. Noticeably drier air
will grace the northwestern half of the forecast area on Friday,
but likely not arrive until Friday night further east. Saturday
looks to be a great day with relatively low PoPs, lower humidity
and temperatures in the 80s. There will be a slight increase in
moisture from the east for Sunday and Monday, but many areas will
avoid the rain, making for a pretty decent Memorial Day Weekend
for most of us.


.MARINE...

Cautionary conditions will linger through this morning across our
western legs. Light to moderate southeasterly wind will then prevail
from this afternoon through Tuesday, returning to cautionary levels
by midweek. Ahead of a cold front, winds could pick up to advisory
levels on Thursday with a frontal wind shift and decreasing winds on
Friday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

An active weather pattern will continue through much of the week,
with a continued chance for wetting rains across much of the area.
The only fire weather concern on the horizon is the potential for
high dispersions on Wednesday.


.HYDROLOGY...

Heaviest rainfall totals on Sunday were 2-2.5 inches across walton
and Holmes counties as a few spiral rain bands lifted across the
Florida Panhandle on the east side of a tropical area of low
pressure. These areas as well as Southeast Alabama could see
widespread 2-3 inch totals again today. High tropical rain rates and
previous heavy rains have necessitated a WPC slight risk for
excessive rainfall today for areas west of an Albany to Apalachicola
line. A marginal risk exists to the east At this time, no flood
watch is planned.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  69  90  69  89 /  60  20  30  10  40
Panama City   80  72  86  72  86 /  70  40  30  10  50
Dothan        79  68  85  67  88 /  80  40  50  10  60
Albany        83  69  90  69  91 /  80  40  50  20  50
Valdosta      88  69  91  69  91 /  60  20  40  10  30
Cross City    87  69  91  69  92 /  20  20  30  10  20
Apalachicola  82  72  85  73  85 /  50  30  20  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Wool