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000
FXUS62 KTAE 160128
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
828 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

.UPDATE...

Light rain may move into our far west and northwest zones
overnight. Also, guidance supports possible patchy to areas of
fog developing toward daybreak across portions of the southeast
Big Bend. Otherwise, skies will be cloudy and mild with lows
ranging from the mid 50s to around 60.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [753 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow will persist over the forecast area through the period. A
flat shortwave trough will traverse the Middle Tennessee Valley,
bringing a trailing frontal boundary into the region late in the
period. Though dry conditions are expected, weak over running will
keep skies mostly cloudy region wide. As a result, low temperatures
will be noticeably warmer than the past several nights, as readings
will generally remain in the mid 50s to near 60.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A cold front will push into the CWA on Saturday. This will bring
the return of low end rain chances to the area, however amounts
should be light as the front is on the weaker side. A second front
will set up across the southeast but north of the CWA on Sunday.
This will keep low end rain chances in through the remainder of
the short term. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s
this weekend with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The front situated north of the CWA in the short term slides south
and east Sunday night with rain chances continuing. Another boundary
will set up north of the tri-state area during the first half of the
week and copious amounts of rainfall will fall north and west of the
CWA as the boundary remains anchored with weak disturbances riding
along the front. Rain chances will continue for each day in the long
term but with the boundary situated north of the area, this will
keep our best rain chances across the west and northern portion of
the CWA. High temperatures will range from the 70s to the low 80s
with lows mainly in the 60s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

Model trends overnight indicate that cigs will lower to MVFR
across most areas and IFR over TLH and possibly ECP. Timing of
occurrence will be from around 10-15Z. Most places will be VFR
afterwards but ABY and DHN may remain MVFR until the afternoon.
After this TAF period, appears sea fog will develop across the
nearshore waters and spread inland through the evening with
IFR/LIFR becoming widespread towards 06Z and beyond.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will dominate through the weekend with speeds
mainly around 10 knots or less and wave heights of two feet or
less. While multiple fronts will move across the southeast over
the next week, they remain north of the marine area. Given this,
the higher precipitation chances will remain over the western
waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture will be on the increase the next few days. With
winds below critical thresholds and RH values above critical
thresholds, Red Flag Warning conditions are not forecast.


.HYDROLOGY...

While low end rain chances return to the forecast this weekend
into next week, the rainfall amounts across the area will be light
as the fronts either weaken as they move into the region or remain
anchored north and west of the tri-state area. Main focus will be
to watch the rivers once the rain that falls north of the area next
week works its way south.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  76  61  78  64 /  10  20  10  10  40
Panama City   62  72  64  74  64 /  10  20  10  10  40
Dothan        60  74  61  78  61 /  20  30  10  20  50
Albany        58  74  60  77  62 /  10  30  10  20  50
Valdosta      55  75  60  79  64 /  10  20  10  10  40
Cross City    53  74  61  78  64 /  10  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  60  71  62  72  65 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Fieux