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000
FXUS62 KTAE 150530
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Wednesday] Conditions will be deteriorating through
the period as rain and thunderstorms gradually become more
widespread and heavier across the area with lowering ceilings
ahead of a cold front. Although some areas may see VFR conditions
this morning, by this afternoon most areas are expected to be at
MVFR or IFR and remain there through the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [945 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level flow will remain zonal due to the ridging located
over the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary brought rain showers
and a few thunderstorms to the area and this boundary is expected
to hang around for most of the day tomorrow. The greatest chance
for showers will be just ahead of the boundary with a stream of
moisture feeding the mid levels. Expect cloud coverage and a
chance of showers until the frontal boundary finally passes
through as late as Wednesday evening. Only slight adjustments
have been made to the forecast, most notably the increase in PoPs
for Tuesday 15OCT.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

On Tuesday, a departing upper low over the northeast states will
have a cold front strung out south of it, across the western
Atlantic and then laid west to east across southern MS, AL and GA.
An elongated ridge of high pressure aloft will be stationed over
the gulf with near zonal flow over the local area. The stationary
front should have showers ongoing at the start of Tuesday. Winds
at the surface will start shifting to the south as a weak LLJ
ramps up in response to upper shortwaves along the frontal
boundary. A pretty distinct boundary will set up at the surface
anywhere from around Tallahassee (GFS) to our northern border
(NAM) especially between 15-21z. Instability increases as the
profile saturates with PW values around 2.2 inches and SBCAPE
around 1500 J/KG. Also, with the LLJ nearby, 0-6KM shear will be
around 40 knots with 15-20 knots of 0-1KM shear. Given the wind
profile, a few rotating updrafts are possible near and just south
of the frontal boundary. The lift is messy at best so thinking
tomorrow will be clusters of showers with a few more organized
thunderstorms toward early afternoon that could produce gusty
winds. A few rotating showers may have to be monitored as well and
this was mentioned in SPC`s discussion when they placed us in a
Marginal risk for Tuesday.

By 00z, the boundary pushes north with south-southeast flow
areawide. But with the continued shortwaves aloft, plenty of
moisture around and some shear, showers and a few thunderstorms will
be ongoing Tue night. The front should move through Wed morning
through Wed evening, clearing out the rain and bringing much drier
air in its wake. A few post frontal showers are possible as the
drier air moves in.

Highs Tuesday will be cooler to the north under the rain, in the mid
70s to the upper 80s along the coast. Similar conditions expected
on Wednesday ahead of the front. Lows Tue night will be warm, in
the lower 70s, and drop to the lower 50s north and lower 60s south
on Wed night.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The story for Thursday is the much cooler temps with highs dropping
into the 70s and maybe a deg or two cooler for Friday. The last time
Tallahassee had a high temp in the 70s was April 24 2019 when the
high hit 79 degrees. Lows on Thu night may hit the 40s in SE AL and
parts of SW GA with the rest of the area in the mid 50s. Temps start
to rise for the weekend and be back in the upper 80s by Monday.

An upper low will be moving northward in the Gulf with a surface low
forming along the coast on Saturday. This will bring additional rain
to the area and have upped the model blends to scattered pops for
Sat- Mon. Rain will hang around until another front clears it out
mid week.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots shift slightly to the west
on Tuesday and will continue there until a frontal passage
Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the waters Tuesday through Wednesday night. Behind the
front, winds are more northerly. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible again for the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Active weather pattern with elevated rain chances the next 2 days
will keep fire weather concerns low through Wednesday. A
stationary front will be stationed across SE alabama and southern
Georgia on Tuesday leading to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the front with low dispersions
expected north of the front. Front pushes through the area
Wednesday afternoon with increased dispersions expected in the
afternoon hours. Widespread dense fog is not expected but
increased moisture content over the region will lead to patchy fog
the next few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

An end to the dry weather will be coming soon with light showers
ongoing through Tuesday. Heavier rain will impact mostly areas
north of Tallahassee Tue/Wed with around 1-2 inches forecast and
localized heavy rain possible. Along the coast, around half an
inch to an inch is possible. Additional prolonged rainfall looks
likely from Saturday through Wednesday but will be dependent on
the track of an upper low in the Gulf. Flooding will not be a
concern.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   84  72  85  57  77 /  80  60  60  10   0
Panama City   83  75  85  59  78 /  80  60  50  10   0
Dothan        79  69  79  51  74 / 100  80  50   0   0
Albany        76  70  80  52  74 / 100  80  50   0   0
Valdosta      82  72  82  55  75 /  80  60  60   0   0
Cross City    87  72  85  63  79 /  30  60  60  20   0
Apalachicola  82  75  83  62  76 /  70  60  60  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bowen/Dobbs
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LN
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...LN