Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250528
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1228 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF, with high cloudiness
expected Saturday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [706 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...

As of 1pm this afternoon the cold front had moved into western
portions of the forecast area with rain chances quickly moving east.
These rain showers will clear the eastern portions of the forecast
area by later this afternoon with drier conditions expected for the
evening. Much cooler temperatures move in tonight with nighttime
lows dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Sunday Night]...

High pressure will move into the forecast area during the day on
Saturday. With cold advection diminishing, and sunny skies expect
temperatures to warm a little more than guidance suggests, but
cooler than Friday. Highs should be in the low 60s to mid 60s
across the area.

Saturday night`s low temperature forecast will be a balancing act
between calm winds and a dry surface airmass and increasing mid
and upper level cloudiness. On the one hand, it looks as though
through about 06z that temperatures will drop rapidly before the
cloudiness arrives, so it is certainly possible that a couple of
sites could get into the upper 30s by 06z Sunday and then either
stop dropping or gradually warm up. However, model guidance shows
even more cloud cover this cycle than 24 hours ago, so once again
went a degree or two above guidance across the board, with most
sites around 40 or a little warmer.

The next shortwave will move into the region on Sunday, but this
system is fairly weak, and while there will be some rain in the
area, it shouldn`t be all that heavy, in fact most of the
precipitation should be out over the marine area.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Well this is about the most variable model cycle I`ve seen in a
while, so it goes without saying that confidence in the long term
forecast is about as low as it can be.

The departing storm system on Sunday night/Monday should leave dry
and tranquil conditions from Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the next shortwave will be approaching the area.
Model guidance can`t seem to figure out whether this will lead to
modest surface cyclogenesis across the northern Gulf of Mexico or
further to the south, thus bypassing our forecast area. The 06z
GFS was basically dry Wednesday across our region, and now the
12z GFS is a modest rain event. The Euro has been somewhat
consistent and keeps the rain south of the forecast area.

With the bulk of the guidance showing most of the precip (if any
at all) staying south of the area, will only show slight chance
PoPs for Wednesday-Wednesday night.

As if Wednesday wasn`t already fairly uncertain, it gets worse at
the tail end of the period. The models have been back and forth
on whether a cutoff piece of energy in the southern stream will
phase in with a deepening northern stream trough. In the model
solutions where this phasing occurs, strong surface cyclogenesis
occurs across the East Central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday evening-
Friday. The models that don`t phase in, result in a rather
diffuse system traversing the area late in the period. At this
point, felt that a forecast PoP slightly above climatology (30
percent) was probably the best bet. While it wouldn`t surprise me
to see a decent Gulf low develop, I also wouldn`t be shocked if it
turns out to be a weak system moving through the area come Friday.


.MARINE...

Marine conditions are expected to be near cautionary levels
through Saturday morning. Thereafter, winds and seas will relax to
more tranquil levels for the remainder of the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersion values are forecast across the entire region on
Sunday as a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico will provide low
PoP chances, and subsequent low mixing heights across the region.
Outside of low dispersion values, Red flag conditions are not
forecast.


.HYDROLOGY...

With little in the way of rainfall over the next 5 days, there are
no flood concerns. The Apalachicola River near Blountstown
continues to drop and should be below flood stage later this
evening.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  39  64  46  65 /   0   0  20  40  10
Panama City   62  45  62  51  66 /   0   0  40  50  10
Dothan        59  39  59  46  61 /   0   0  30  40  10
Albany        60  38  60  46  60 /   0   0  10  30  10
Valdosta      63  38  63  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  10
Cross City    67  39  66  47  67 /   0   0  10  40  20
Apalachicola  61  45  61  51  63 /   0   0  40  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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