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000
FXUS62 KTAE 031418
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1018 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.UPDATE...

Further refined rain chances this afternoon with the main focus
for showers and thunderstorms likely to come from low level
convergence between northeasterly flow from Tropical Storm Isaias
and southwesterly/westerly flow associated with a trough to the
west of the forecast area. This area of convergence is likely
along the AL/GA border, extending south into the Florida
Panhandle. Rain chances become a little more uniform over Florida
as complex interactions between the convergence zone, and Gulf
Coast seabreeze make pinning down any areas for storms more
difficult. Regardless, overall subsidence will keep coverage very
low (isolated) outside any of these focused areas of lower level
convergence. This means temperatures will be hot this afternoon
and in the mid to upper 90s in these areas that miss out on
storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [617 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Mid level ridging pinched between TS Isaias to the east and broad
troughing to the west will weaken as the trough moves eastward into
our area. Some indications of decent low level convergence coupled
with increasing moisture and diurnal heating will spark isolated to
widely scattered afternoon storms mainly east of the
Apalachicola/Flint rivers. Have raised rain chances in this area
somewhat to account for the hi-res guidance showing storms this
afternoon. Winds along and east of the I-75 corridor may experience
gusts to 20 mph associated with any banding from Isaias that makes
it into that area. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s
and feels-like temperatures in the mid 100s.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday through Wednesday]...

A deep upper level trough will reside over the eastern CONUS with
axis extending southward from the Great Lakes region to the eastern
Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will persist in the lower levels with
with a weak surface front/trough pushing into our western zones on
Wednesday. Normally this would be a wet pattern for us but models
show a very dry airmass above 700 mb. Only isolated afternoon
showers and possibly a thunderstorm can be expected both days. With
the lack of convection and cloud cover, afternoon temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 90s. This combined with dew points as high as
the lower 70s will result in heat indices approaching or exceeding
108 mainly over portions of of the Florida Big Bend Tuesday
afternoon. Otherwise, the heat index will be around 100-107 for the
rest of the area both days.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The deep upper trough will gradually deamplify allowing the western
extension of the Bermuda ridge to build back in and reconnect with
the ridge across Southern Plains. Time-height cross sections and
forecast soundings show deep layer moisture returning to our area
which will yield better chances for diurnal convection. Temperatures
will continue above season levels with highs in the mid 90s and lows
in the lower to mid 70s. Heat index values will remain between 100-
107 each afternoon.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

Afternoon thunderstorm development appears more probable which
will affect the TAF sites with the exception of ECP. Will keep
PROB30 this TAF period but may need tempo if development is more
scattered over the region. VFR for this period with a low chance
for MVFR associated with heavier convection.


.MARINE...

Winds will be westerly 10 to 15 knots through tonight before
lessening and switching to southwesterly by Wednesday. Seas will
be generally be 2 feet or less through the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of high dispersions across portions of the area over the
next several days, there are no hazardous fire weather conditions
expected.


.HYDROLOGY...


Less than one inch of basin averaged rainfall is forecast through
the next 7 days so therefore, there are no significant flooding
concerns for the next several days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   97  74  97  73  96 /  20  10  10   0  10
Panama City   94  77  92  77  91 /  10   0  10   0  10
Dothan        96  73  95  72  93 /  40  10  10   0  10
Albany        95  73  94  73  94 /  30  20  10  10  20
Valdosta      91  73  96  73  93 /  30  10  20  10  20
Cross City    93  75  95  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  93  78  91  77  90 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dobbs
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...LN