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000
FXUS62 KTAE 081132
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
632 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

Low ceilings are beginning to spread westward quickly from
southeast GA. Expect IFR at VLD very shortly, followed by IFR/MVFR
spreading west and becoming predominantly MVFR later today and for
the remainder of the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [330 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Surface ridging spanning the Eastern Seaboard will spread
southwest into the Tri-State region while a weak surface low
gradually moves WNW along the Panhandle and AL coasts. While
isentropic surfaces will have a decent slope to them, winds won`t
quite be directed upslope locally and thus we`ll primarily be
dealing with low cloudiness today and not rain. Even though it
will be rather cloudy, expect temperatures to climb into the upper
60s to low 70s this side of the wedge front.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

As the aforementioned surface low moves inland and dissipates over
western Alabama, flow in the Gulf will turn southerly. This will
advect a warmer airmass towards the coastline overnight and result
in more upslope oriented vectors. Thus, expect rain coverage to
increase from west to east and work inland through the overnight
hours. Rain will slowly come to an end on Monday as the thermal
gradient moves north out of the region. On Tuesday, another low-
level wind surge is expected to result in scattered rain
initiating along a developing warm/coastal front ahead of an
approaching cold front. Temperatures will continue warming
through early this week, nearing 80 degrees on Tuesday afternoon.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A shortwave moving through the Mississippi Valley earlier in the
week will have assisted in the development of a frontal boundary
forecast to stretch from the western Gulf through the Mid-Atlantic
to start the period. By Wednesday, another shortwave will move
through the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This
wave will keep the upper pattern amplified and result in the
continue progression of the cold front through the local area on
Wednesday. With the northern wave out of the picture and the
approaching wave lagging the front, expect a weakening trend in
convection along it as it moves through the region. However,
sometime Wednesday night or Thursday as the upper wave moves
through the Southeast, expect a large area of rain behind the
front. The wet pattern looks to continue into next weekend as the
front is forecast to stall in the Gulf, with isentropic rain and
possibly another Gulf low moving back to the north.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas near a weak surface low in the Gulf will briefly
increase to Advisory levels today. By this evening, Cautionary
conditions should prevail and last through Monday night. A brief
period of sub-headline conditions are expected on Tuesday before
winds and seas pick back up to Advisory levels, and remain there
through the end of the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
upcoming week.


.HYDROLOGY...

While a period of wet conditions are expected through the next
week, rainfall amounts are forecast to be rather low through mid-
week. As an upper level wave moves through the Southeast late this
week, an inch or two of rain is possible on average across the
Tri-State region. For now, flooding is not expected to be a
concern.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  55  77  60  79 /   0  10  30  10  30
Panama City   71  61  75  63  77 /  10  50  40  10  40
Dothan        67  57  76  59  78 /   0  30  30  10  60
Albany        66  55  77  62  79 /  10  10  20  10  50
Valdosta      71  55  79  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
Cross City    75  55  78  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  69  61  74  62  75 /   0  40  40  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan