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484
FXUS62 KTAE 201123
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
623 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

MVFR cigs will begin to scatter out near the coast this morning by
around 15Z, but stick around a little longer further north,
scattering out around 17-18Z. Strong winds from the northwest
will stay gusty through most of the day then finally lower around
00Z and continue to fall overnight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [319 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A strong cold front has begun to cross the tri-state area and will
continue to bringing colder, drier conditions as it moves through
this morning. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
around sunrise and are expected to decrease for a few hours after
before cloud coverage clears. After clouds scatter out, temps will
finally begin to climb back up a bit, but strong northwestern winds
will make it feel like it`s in the 30s for most of the day. Highs
today will be mostly in the upper 40s to low 50s, mid 50s in the
eastern FL Big Bend.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The upper-level trough will begin to lift northeast tonight, with
deep layer ridging filling in behind. Rain is not expected through
Tuesday. The main focus in the short term is the brief wave of
below average temperatures. CAA will be responsible for forcing
temperatures down into the lower 30s across the entire region
tonight, factoring in the breeze it could feel like the middle 20s
in some locations Monday morning. Highs on Monday will struggle to
reach the 50 degree mark in AL and GA, and remain in the low 50s
across north Florida. Slightly milder temperatures are expected
Monday night, with lows ranging from the low 30s near and north of
Albany, to the low 40s along the Gulf Coast. As winds continue to
veer, so will the moderating trend in temperatures. Expect highs
on Tuesday to reach at least the low 60s area-wide.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

An elongated shortwave will stretch from the Great Lakes region
through the Southern Plains on Tuesday night, and will move across
the eastern CONUS through Thursday as a second shortwave drops
through the Plains, further deepening the trough. This system will
reach the Tri-State with a surface cold front on Wednesday, the
same time that a southern stream shortwave is passing overhead. The
result will be a developing area of low pressure in the Gulf,
moving inland along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Widespread
rain is forecast, though severe weather is not currently
anticipated due to essentially no instability. Another round of
below average temperatures with lows in the low 30s and highs in
the 50s is forecast behind the front through the start of the
weekend.


.MARINE...

Gale conditions will continue through this afternoon, with
advisory level seas continuing through midnight tonight. A brief
period of Cautionary conditions are expected before winds and seas
increase once again to Advisory levels ahead of a mid-week frontal
system.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong northwest winds today in the wake of a cold front will
increase transport winds and with higher mixing heights today,
dispersions will rise into the 70s today with a few scattered spots
throughout the area rising to near 80s.


.HYDROLOGY...

Yesterday`s front brought widespread rain amounts of about
0.5-1.0" to the region. A period of dry weather is expected up
until mid-week when our next frontal system could bring widespread
rain amounts of 1-2" to the Tri-State region. The Suwannee River
at Wilcox is forecast to fall out of flood today, and that will
put all area rivers out of flood stage and on a downward trend.
At this time, the mid-week system is not expected to result in
widespread flooding concerns.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   51  32  52  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   50  35  52  43  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        48  29  49  34  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        49  29  48  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      51  31  50  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  32  54  38  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  35  54  47  62 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan