Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
316 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At 18Z, a shield of light rain was covering the eastern third of
our area and continuing to build northwestward. Across the
western two-thirds of the area, more convectively-driven storms
are popping up with smaller area coverage, but heavier rainfall
rates and some lightning. While a downburst of gusty winds can`t
be ruled out this afternoon/evening with these storms, the main
impact today and tonight will be moderate to heavy rainfall.
Coverage will continue to fill in across the tri-state area and
most of the area could see rainfall accumulations around 0.5-1"
through tonight. Our local ensemble of hi-res models shows about a
30-40% chance of 3" in the western FL Big Bend and eastern FL
Panhandle. This particular part of our area is still in a deficit,
so this is some much needed rain, but falling over a short time
period, it could cause some minor flooding in areas with poor

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Deep tropical moisture will remain in place through the middle of
the week. A persistent upper-level shortwave will also remain over
the eastern Gulf. This upper-level forcing in a moisture rich and
unstable environment will combine with the afternoon seabreeze,
nocturnal landbreeze, and various mesoscale boundaries to initiate
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day/night.
Localized pockets of heavy rainfall are expected to be the main
threat given the tropical airmass. High temperatures are expected
to be a bit below average given the cloud cover and convection,
and low temperatures are expected to be a bit above average given
the tropical airmass with high dewpoints.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Deep moisture is expected to remain in place through the week and
into next weekend with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Models forecast a complex sequence of events to take place in the
Gulf late in the week into the weekend with potential low pressure
development. The low doesn`t appear to be fully tropical in the
guidance with the subtropical jet involved, and with such a complex
evolution, sensitivity is high and expect to see a high variability
of model depictions for the next few days. We`ll continue to keep
an eye on it. There is potential for heavy rainfall in the area
should the low eventually move towards the central or eastern Gulf
coast next weekend with a long fetch of deep southerly flow on
the eastern side.



[Through 18z Monday] Scattered TSRA this afternoon west of a line
from TLH to FZG, with a shield of -RA to the east. Cigs will
deteriorate to MVFR this afternoon with storms, with IFR vsbys
possible during heavier downpours. Overnight, cigs will
deteriorate further to IFR, not lifting until around 14-15Z.



Winds and seas are forecast to generally remain around 15 knots or
less over the next several days, although scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period with
locally higher winds and seas possible. There is some potential
for an area of low pressure to develop in the Gulf by next
weekend with higher winds and seas, but that forecast is uncertain
at this time.



No fire weather concerns are anticipated at least through the next
several days.



Overall, a wet pattern is expected through next week with average 7
day rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches across the area. Localized
higher amounts could occur. Isolated instances of flooding in
urban and poor drainage areas could occur if locally heavier
amounts fall in a flood prone location over a short amount of
time. River levels remain on the low side currently, so river
flooding is not expected for at least the next few days unless
large scale forecast rainfall totals increase or locally heavier
totals fall over one of the smaller basins. By next weekend, river
levels are expected to be rising with the expected rainfall
amounts, but any flooding is highly uncertain.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   69  82  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  50  30
Panama City   71  80  72  81  73 /  50  70  50  50  30
Dothan        68  80  69  81  69 /  50  70  50  70  40
Albany        68  83  69  83  69 /  50  70  50  70  50
Valdosta      67  82  68  83  69 /  50  70  40  70  40
Cross City    68  82  69  83  69 /  60  70  40  50  30
Apalachicola  71  79  73  80  72 /  60  60  50  40  30




NEAR TERM...Nguyen
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