Area Forecast Discussion
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626
FXUS62 KTAE 231334
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
934 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A 12Z regional surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary
draped across the forecast area from roughly Apalachicola to
Valdosta. WV satellite imagery shows drier air aloft of areas
northwest of that boundary and the 12Z TAE sounding showed a PW
value of 1.38". An MCS lies well to the south of the front, out
in the Gulf of Mexico past our coastal waters. After some daytime
heating today, instability will increase over land, particularly
east of the front. Daytime heating is also expected to kick up the
north Florida and east coast seabreeze this afternoon. Coverage
of storms is will be highest over our eastern zones. SBCAPE will
not be as high as the past few days, but will still peak around
2000 to 3500 J/kg. This may allow a few storms to produce
downbursts of strong to severe (50-60 MPH) wind gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [616 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Southeast. At the
surface a weak low will be centered over Eastern Georgia on Tuesday.
A stationary boundary will be over the region through Wednesday.
With a boundary present and abundant Gulf moisture with low level
southerly winds, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread.
Strong to severe storms will be isolated and confined to the
afternoon/evening hours. Daytime POPs will be 50 to 70 percent.
Nighttime POPs will be 20 to 30 percent. Highs will be in the upper
80s and lower 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast until a weak
ridge builds in on Friday. Then a trough will return on Sunday or
Monday. At the surface a weak stationary boundary will continue to
linger over the region on Thursday. Southerly flow will dominate
with high pressure to the east over the Atlantic. Somewhat drier
weather is expected on Thursday, Friday and Saturday with POPs at 30
to 40 percent in the daytime. Wetter weather will return on Sunday
and Monday as another system approaches. Highs will be in the low
to mid 90s. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.AVIATION...

[Through 12z Tuesday] Patchy areas of low ceilings will quickly give
way to VFR conditions this morning. Some scattered convection is
expected this afternoon, but it will be less widespread than
previous days.


.MARINE...

Cautionary level (15 to 20 knots) winds this morning will subside
by this afternoon. Winds will be light to moderate for the rest of
the week. Thunderstorms are likely over the next few days and can
quickly produce higher winds and seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

The wet pattern continues through Wednesday as a frontal boundary
stalls. Less than 1 inch of rain is predicted through Wednesday
but locally higher amounts are likely. Most local rivers are
steady or rising at this time. Most local rivers remain below
action stage.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  73  90  73  90 /  30  30  60  30  60
Panama City   90  75  89  76  90 /  40  40  40  20  40
Dothan        89  72  89  73  90 /  40  30  60  30  50
Albany        88  73  90  74  90 /  40  30  60  20  50
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  50  30  60  30  60
Cross City    91  73  89  74  88 /  30  30  50  50  60
Apalachicola  90  76  88  76  88 /  30  30  40  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD



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