558
ACUS01 KWNS 131630
SWODY1
SPC AC 131628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent
from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread
thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into
central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a
generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such,
water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly
stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained
multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently,
there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region
where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely.

...Southwest...
Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning
more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected
to develop off the higher terrain and then progress
southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given
moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists,
particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off
the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass.

...Upper Midwest...
Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and
western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent
attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface
trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms
during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level
northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential
discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively
warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering
convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage.
Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells
seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset.

...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas...
Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered
over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not
expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward.
However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV
is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant
airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash
flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded
downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite
outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and
evening.

...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across
the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost
vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR
border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO.
Both of these features are expected to progress
eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant
airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the
Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep
southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support
some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing
cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western
KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected.
Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster.

...Lower MS Valley...
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist
(i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over
2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity
will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any
outflow boundaries.

...Florida...
A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast
today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western
periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and
central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest
(i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster
some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass
that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible
within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening.

..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025

$$