Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 241627
SPC AC 241626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z


Isolated severe hail is possible after 2 am CDT Sunday in the Texas
Big Country.

...TX Big Country...
There will be potential for isolated elevated storm development
early Sunday as a surge of warm advection occurs to the north of the
cold front that will stall and become quasi-stationary across the
Edwards Plateau this afternoon. While the 12Z NAM is likely too
aggressive with the degree of MUCAPE given its typical bias in
initial return flow scenarios, robust low-level moisture is
prevalent south of the front. Guidance is consistent in depicting
increasing 850 mb moisture overnight, although differences exist in
amplitude and whether this will be sufficient for elevated storms to
develop. Given ample speed shear through the potential cloud-bearing
layer, it appears a conditional risk for severe hail is warranted.

A few clusters of elevated storms are ongoing across the Mid-MS to
Lower OH Valleys, in advance of a shortwave trough over IA. Though
the midlevel trough will dampen through tonight, warm advection
downstream of this feature should foster convection spreading
southeast towards the southern Appalachians and south Atlantic
Coast. Weak ascent near the trailing cold front could support
isolated thunderstorm development this evening across the TN Valley
and Mid South.

A few thunderstorms will remain possible along the OR and northern
CA coasts, as well as the Sacramento Valley, as a deep midlevel
trough moves inland this afternoon. Very isolated lightning may
occur across western MT in association with an ejecting/deamplifying
trough today, and tonight with elevated convection across NE/SD in a
strengthening warm advection regime. In the latter two areas,
however, the lightning threat appears to be too sparse to warrant
outlook areas.

..Grams/Cook.. 03/24/2018

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