Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
125 FXUS63 KMKX 141202 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 702 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast tonight into Tuesday morning. Locally heavy rain and urban and small stream flooding are possible. - A Gale Warning has been issued for the open waters of Lake Michigan and for the nearshore zones north of North Point Lighthouse tonight through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect this afternoon into early evening, extending through the night south of North Point Lighthouse. - A High Swim Risk is expected from the Sheboygan County beaches south to Kenosha County Beaches from late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect. Stay out of the water and away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls! && .UPDATE... Issued 702 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Forecast remains on track, with showers and isolated storms developing this afternoon into tonight. Storm potential increases overnight underneath strong WAA at the mid-levels, as well as increasing shower coverage. Local flooding will be possible wherever multiple rounds of storms move over the same area. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1129 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Overnight through Tuesday: Skies have cleared out and high pressure will move over the area overnight into early Monday morning. Light to calm winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions overnight. This should bring chilly lows in the lower to middle 40s over most of the area, with lows around 50 degrees close to the lakeshore. CAMs seem to continue to support some showers and a few storms moving east northeast into south central Wisconsin by middle to late afternoon into the early evening, perhaps into east central Wisconsin by late afternoon or early evening. This is with the focused warm air advection push and the leading edge of the moisture advection with the low level jet. Will keep some chances (20 to 40 percent) in the forecast for now. Highs Monday should reach the lower 70s in most areas, as southeast winds increase. Still looks like later Monday evening into early Tuesday morning should be the main period for showers and some storms, as the low level jet veers over the area and low level frontogenesis with the frontal boundary pushes southeast into the area. Precipitable water values remain high, up to 2.00 inches, with possible training of this activity bringing locally heavy rainfall potential. Urban and small stream flooding are also possible given the setup. This activity should gradually shift southward into northern Illinois by late morning or early afternoon, as the low level jet weakens and the low level frontogenesis shifts southward as well. May see a period of low clouds for the rest of Tuesday with humid conditions. Highs Tuesday are still forecast to reach the middle to upper 70s, though may end up lower if the low clouds linger through the rest of the day. A High Swim Risk and Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect from later Monday afternoon until midday Tuesday, as the combination of gusty south southeast winds and building waves brings hazardous conditions to area beaches. Stay out of the water, and avoid dangerous areas like piers and break walls. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 1129 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Tuesday night through Sunday: Models and ensembles suggest high pressure should move east across the Western Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The northeast winds with the high may limit any chances for showers across the area during this time. Ensemble members are mostly still showing measurable rainfall, but they may not be seeing this drier trend yet. For now, kept chances for showers (30 to 70 percent) for mainly Wednesday, but these may need to be cut back in later forecasts if this drier look continues. Some warm air advection tries to sneak back into the area Wednesday night into Thursday, though it is not very strong and may lack moisture if another high to the north shunts any precipitation with this system further to the south. Ensemble members continue to show measurable rainfall for this period, but may not be catching onto this possible drier trend. For now, kept the relatively high chances (50 to 80 percent) for showers and a few storms for now. This may also need adjusting downward in later forecasts. A more organized low tracks through southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois Saturday, with possibly another system for later in the weekend. Ensemble members remain fairly wet with measurable rainfall during this period, so will keep the 30 to 70 percent chances for now. Temperatures through the week and into the weekend will depend on clouds and precipitaion trends, so kept NBM values for now until better confidence can be found. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 702 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Primarily VFR conditions, with fog in low-lying areas burning off in the next hour. Expect winds to become steady and southeasterly this morning, then to continuously increase throughout today and tonight to gust up to 20 kt this afternoon and up to 30 kt overnight. Ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR late tonight into Tuesday morning as showers and isolated thunderstorms become widespread. MH && .MARINE... Issued 1129 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 North winds will gradually ease overnight into Monday morning, as high pressure around 30.3 inches moves across the lake. Winds will then increase and veer to south southeast Monday afternoon and night, becoming south into Tuesday, as low pressure around 29.3 inches moves from southern Manitoba through northern Ontario. Gales are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Gale Warning has been issued for Lake Michigan. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect later Monday afternoon into early evening for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, for building waves and increasing south southeast winds. A Gale Warning is in effect for the nearshore waters north of North Point Lighthouse from middle Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, as south southeast to south gales to 35 knots are expected. The Small Craft Advisory continues south of there until early Tuesday morning. Winds and waves may remain above Small Craft Advisory levels through the rest of Tuesday morning. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the developing low from as early as Monday evening into Tuesday. Winds will trend north to northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high pressure around 30.3 inches moves into the region. North to northeast winds may linger into the rest of the week, as the high slowly moves to the east of the region. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM Monday to 1 PM Tuesday. Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870- LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday. Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...9 PM Monday to 1 PM Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM Monday to 9 PM Monday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee