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420
FXUS63 KMKX 191755
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...

Temperatures are finally beginning to respond with most locations
in the upper 30s to lower 40s at noon so I think going highs in
the low/mid 30s looks pretty good. Lowest highs will be in an E-W
band collocated with the heaviest snow from yesterday just north
of I-94.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Main concern with this forecast period will be fog potential for
tonight. High pressure will drift overhead producing clear skies
and light winds. Couple those conditions with low level moisture
thanks to snow melt and it appears to be a good fog set-up. I
think fog will develop late tonight but am not confident with how
widespread or thick the fog will be...but the potential is there
for VSBY`s below one half mile by sunrise Friday morning.
Otherwise, high pressure will keep things quiet through the
weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 939 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018)

UPDATE...

No changes made. Clear skies and northwest breeze should continue
through the day. The only potential adjustment would be to trend
temperatures down this afternoon over the deeper snow cover...but
we will see if the strong April sunshine can overcome the
snowpack first.

MARINE...

North to northwest winds will trend more towards the northwest and
should diminish this afternoon becoming light overnight. Waves of
4 to 8 feet this morning will subside to less than 4 feet by this
evening. A small craft advisory is in effect until 7 PM this
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 612 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018)

UPDATE...

No changes at this time to the going forecast.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Breezy north winds are expected during the day today, along with
VFR conditions. As an area of high pressure builds south into the
region tonight, areas of fog/freezing are expected to develop.
This should be most widespread where the most snow fell on
Wednesday. IFR vis is expected in most places, with the potential
for LIFR at times. Any fog that develops should dissipate by mid
morning on Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast confidence is high...

The snow has ended across the area this morning, and skies will
continue to clear from the north. North to northwest winds will
remain breezy today, as temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s.

High pressure will settle into the area tonight. Temperatures will
fall into the low to mid 20s, though given light winds, readings
will likely bounce around a fair amount during the overnight
hours. With those light winds, mostly clear skies, and plenty of
low level moisture, fog/freezing fog development will be possible,
especially after midnight. Along with reduced visibility, any
freezing fog could result in a layer of frost on roadways,
resulting in renewed slick spots by Friday morning.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure overhead Friday will move slowly eastward over the
weekend into early next week. This high will bring dry weather and
plenty of sunshine to the forecast area through this period.
Temperatures will finally warm back to around normal for the
weekend...and might even be a couple degrees above normal by
Monday!

Tuesday and Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models show a low pressure and an associated cold front to move
through later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This may bring some
showers to southern Wisconsin. Increased precip chances a bit, as
models are starting to come into better agreement with the
details of this system. Should see the milder temps continue
Tuesday ahead of the cold front, with temps falling back to around
normal or even a below normal Wednesday behind the departing
low/front.

MARINE...

North to northwest winds will remain breezy today, with gusts
between 20 and 25 knots. Waves will also remain rather high
through the afternoon hours, with 3-7 foot waves this morning
slowly diminishing during the afternoon hours. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect until early evening.

After today, a period of quiet weather is expected. No significant
marine hazards are currently expected through at least early next
week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...BM
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...BM
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV