046
FXUS61 KALY 012013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
413 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Most areas have seen sunshine as of this afternoon with clouds
continuing to decrease throughout the region. Outside of some
light showers possible north and east of Albany tonight due to a
passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected
throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact,
precipitation chances don`t increase again until Saturday
afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather
will then return for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite shows primarily partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies across the region this afternoon as dry air is ushered in
with high pressure building to the south and west. A low
pressure system has settled just north of Michigan this
afternoon, extending an associated warm/borderline stationary
boundary south and east through western New York and into the
northern Mid-Atlantic.

The aforementioned boundary will continue to lift north and east
through the region tonight as a true warm front as its parent
low tracks through southern Canada and a potent shortwave
rotates about its southern periphery. With the track of the low
remaining displaced well to our north, the shortwave looks to
cross the region north of Albany. As such, the divergent, right
exit region of a jet max within the flow of the disturbance will
intersect portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Upper-Hudson
Valley, possibly leading to some scattered showers in these
areas. Elsewhere, dry conditions will remain steady.

Clouds are anticipated to increase across much of the area
tonight in response to the passage of the disturbance, so
temperatures will fair on the mild side with primarily 50s and
some low 40s in higher terrain regions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upon the passage of the warm front and upper shortwave by
tomorrow morning, the parent low will be slow to move away from
our overhead, yielding some clouds lingering throughout the day
tomorrow, especially for western New England. A weak cold front
will swing through the region tomorrow afternoon as the low
drifts south and east, but a swift reinforcement of mid-level
dry air behind it will ensure another primarily dry day outside
of some scattered showers in the Upper-Hudson Valley and
portions of western New England. Anticipated breaks of sun,
especially in valley areas will allow temperatures to moderate
back to the 60s and 70s with some upper 50s expected above 1500
ft.

By tomorrow night, an upper-level ridge will be building in from
the west. The amplification of this ridge through Friday will
ensure a dry end of the work week with a continuation to above-
normal temperatures. Highs Friday will primarily be in the upper
60s with pockets of low 60s at higher elevations and near 70 in
valley areas after the cool boundary cools things off slightly.

The axis of the ridge will begin to shift eastward Friday night
into Saturday morning as a frontal system approaches from the
southwest. Showers look to begin as early as Saturday evening as
a surface low tracks towards into the Ohio Valley. Showers will
overspread the region from northwest to southeast as upper
troughing also pushes eastward into the region. Highs Saturday
will be similar to Friday with 60s expected across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level disturbance and surface boundary will be running into
the ridge in place for Saturday night into Sunday.  As a result, a
period of rain showers and cloudy conditions look to occur for Sat
night into Sunday (mainly early in the day, based on the latest
operational runs).  Have gone with fairly high POPs during this time
period for the entire area (high chance to likely).  Can`t rule out
some rumbles of thunder across southern areas too, although strong
storms are not expected due to limited instability and most of the
thunderstorm activity being elevated.  Temps will be in the 40s on
Sat night and only in the 50s on Sunday with plenty of clouds around.

Some clearing should occur by Monday with ridging building back into
the area for early next week.  As a result, skies should be partly
to mostly sunny for both Monday and Tuesday with valley highs in the
70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another chance for showers may return for Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the next system approaches from the west.  Temps will
continue to be fairly seasonable to somewhat above normal.  Because
of this, no frost/freeze issues are anticipated through the long
term period for locations where the growing season has already
begun.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low stratus from the morning has finally burned off at all the
terminals. VFR ceilings will prevail the rest of the day with
breaks of sun.

VFR conditions continue this evening before southerly winds
ahead of a warm front advect in marine moisture from the
Atlantic. This will result in MVFR conditions returning to PSF
and POU by 05 - 08 UTC. ALB and GFL will also see a return to
MVFR ceilings a few hours later arriving closer to 08 - 12 UTC.
There is potential for IFR ceilings at POU and PSF mainly from
07 - 13 UTC as low-level moisture collects beneath the low-level
inversion. Once the associated cold front sweeps through the
region from west to east by 15 - 18 UTC, MVFR and IFR ceilings
will quickly improve to VFR. Given PSF is the furthest east, it
likely will be the last to see improvements.

Westerly winds this afternoon sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to
15kts will weaken after sunset becoming southerly and sustained
around 5kts or less. Southerly winds gradually shift south-
southwest early tomorrow before veering to the west-northwest
and becoming gusty as a cold front sweeps through the region.
Winds become sustained 5 to 12kts and gusts up to 15-20kts.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale