414
FXUS63 KGLD 112029
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
229 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and weak storms this afternoon and
  overnight tonight.

- Late tomorrow morning, more showers and storms will move into
  the region, Marginal chance of severe weather tomorrow.

- Average rainfall amounts today through Monday near 0.50" to
  1.25", highest south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs.
  Add Key Message

- Unsettled pattern will continue to support chances of
  showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

This afternoon, a 500 mb low pressure system over the western
Rockies is starting to influence the CWA and showers are moving in
from the southwest. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue into the night with spotty coverage. The threat for severe
weather is very low, but not 0. MUCAPE looks to be limited to around
300-800 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less. The SPC
has placed the extreme southwestern portion of the CWA is in a
marginal ERO, however there is less than 5% confidence that flooding
will occur today.

Tomorrow will have more widespread precipitation, stronger storms,
although no severe weather parameters look very impressive. An 850
mb lee low is expected to form in the very early morning hours
Sunday and move across the CWA in the mid-day as the 500 mb low
moves over Colorado to the east. Supplied with a 20-35 kts LLJ that
is expected to start up around 3-6Z tonight, we will have plenty of
moisture to work with throughout the day Sunday. This which does
cause some concern for flooding potential Sunday when we have
another marginal ERO in the far southeastern CWA. However, due to
little rainfall over the previous week, soundings show upshear
speeds around 20-25 kts (a little fast for flooding), and the types
of storm formation expected, there is only about 5-10% confidence
flooding would occur. PWATS are near 1 inch and there is an fairly
elevated freezing level which adds to the confidence, but does not
make it certain. CAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg with EBWD
shear around 25-30 kts, making low-end severe storms possible
(~5-10% chance). If severe weather were to occur, it would
likely be winds near 60 MPH and a few isolated 1" hailstones.

The HRRR has been doing a pretty good job with today`s showers, so
timing will be based on the 12Z and 18Z HRRR. The surface low looks
to move into the western CWA around 14Z and slowly move to the east.
The will cause wrap-around moisture to be pulled in and around 18Z a
line of showers and storms form along the northern CWA. This line
will move to the south-southeast and as it does, additional bands
of showers and storms look to form, so the rain may come in waves
tomorrow. The entire system will be moving to the east and the
northerly winds push the storms to the south. Precipitation looks to
begin tapering off around 9Z Monday, but could linger into mid-day
Monday.

Sunday will be cooler than today due to mostly cloudy skies and a
cold front moving through in the morning/mid-day, highs will be in
the 60s. Tonight will see the LLJ moving warm, moist air into the
region. The western CWA will remain in the mid 40s but the eastern
CWA looks to stay in the mid 50s. Sunday night will be slightly
cooler behind the cold front, likely down into the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

The extended forecast begins with split flow across the eastern two
thirds of the nation.  The northern split has an upper trough
extending west to east from Minnesota to New England and a ridge
over the Dakotas and Big Sky Country (Montana).  The southern split
has a trough over the Kansas/Oklahoma border, a ridge over the
Wyoming Big Horns, and northerly flow over the Tri-State area.  A
closed 500mb low will be centered over central Kansas.  Starting out
in the morning, chances for rain will persist, with 10-20 percent
chances for areas along and west of Hwy 27.  Areas east of the
highway will have a 20-50 percent chance of rain.  This will be due
to wrap around on the back side of the low.  Winds may be a tad
breezy through the afternoon as the system moves off to the east.
The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all show the low becoming an open wave as it
moves out of the region.  For the afternoon, shower and thunderstorm
activity remains possible.  Severe weather is not currently
anticipated with any storms that develop.

The area comes under westerly flow Tuesday as a weak upper ridge
moves over the area.  Expect dry conditions for the first part of
the day, with a few showers and thunderstorms moving in during the
afternoon and evening.  High temperatures will be above normal,
reaching the 80s in many areas.

Expect a shift in the pattern Wednesday through the end of the
forecast period as a slow moving, upper trough moves across the
region Wednesday through Friday. There will be a cool down
coming with temperatures returning to the 70s on Wednesday and
Thursday. Periodic shower and thunderstorms will be possible
between Wednesday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the
day at KGLD and KMCK, but there are showers moving in from the
southwest that may lower ceilings earlier than expected;
updates will be made as necessary. Winds will generally be from
the south-southwest during the day, but around 0Z at KGLD winds
are expected to weaken and be variable. KMCK looks to stay
north of majority of the better showers and storms during the
period, and the winds will be a bit stronger, becoming more
southeasterly after 12Z. The showers, storms, and associated
clouds will be scattered around the region and are expected to
impact flight categories to at least MVFR with IMC being
possible, but less likely.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...CA