289
FXUS63 KGLD 090957
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers are possible today for Eastern Colorado.
  Greater precipitation chances are forecast for Sat/Sun.
  Widespread precipitation is possible, especially along and
  south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected at this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows a broad/elongated trough
across much of the Northern CONUS while surface obs show nearly
homogeneous surface pressure across the region. With these
features in place, winds have weakened and are forecast to stay
relatively lower today compared to the previous days. The upper
trough is forecast to split into a closed low over the Western
CONUS while the main trough axis positions over the Great Lakes.
This will put the area in split flow which will keep conditions
relatively benign today with highs in the 60`s and 70`s. There
could be a few showers over Eastern Colorado this afternoon and
evening with the edge of the closed low over the area and some
mid level moisture. Tonight would see a mix of clouds and clear
skies with the heavier cloud cover to the west where the
moisture is flowing in associated with the upper feature. Lows
would drop into the 30`s and 40`s.

Tomorrow, more split flow is forecast for the area which will
keep the height and pressure gradients weak. The cloud cover is
forecast to continue to stream in from the west with the upper
low forecast to stay roughly in position. This could allow for a
few showers in Eastern Colorado, though it may wobble just far
enough west to end the area`s precip chances. Temperatures will
likely be fairly similar to Thursday with highs in the 60`s and
70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

For the long term, a more active pattern is expected both for
the weekend and going into next week.

The upper cut-off low near the west coast is forecast to begin
moving back into the main flow to the east. This will increase
the synoptic lift across the area and help advect in some more
moisture from the west. With this, shower and storm chances are
forecast to increase during the afternoon and evening hours both
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be due to the upper low
getting closer, Sunday due to a broad low pressure system that
will swing through the Plains with general troughing through the
Plains. The severe threat looks to be low both days with
relatively weak flow and shear over the area. Will need to
monitor the timing of any boundaries for any localized
enhancements, or if a break in cloud cover can increase
temperatures and instability. Otherwise, the multiple days of
precipitation could allow for totals above an inch for those who
get the heaviest storms or who see storms both days. This
currently favors along and South of I-70. High temperatures are
forecast to warm into the 70`s both days.

The start of the next week may see near average conditions with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70`s and late chances for
precipitation associated with smaller disturbance moving
through the area. The upper pattern is forecast to have the area
under northwest flow as multiple lows and troughs move around
the CONUS. Will need to keep an eye on Tue/Wed as a stronger
trough may move into the Plains from the north and provide our
next chance at a system though a competing cut-off low near the
Baja Peninsula may compete and keep the better forcing north of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected through the
period. A northwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance will
continue through 15z-16z, increasing and gusting to around 20kts
through 00z. After 01z, northerly winds subside below 11kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99