980
FXUS63 KIWX 141341
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
941 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms developing late this afternoon.

- An unsettled pattern prevails this weekend into early next
  week.

- Temperatures will rise above normal with highs around 80
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Scissors have been used extensively this morning with respect to
the POP forecast today. POPs are lowest along the Michigan state
line where coverage is most questionable. POPs are highest south
of US 30, where upper-level forcing is best.

We`ll be a lull, dry period, as of this writing and through at
least the early afternoon hours. Thereafter, scattered showers
and storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a
stationary front strung up along and just north of the US 30
corridor. A second area of develop will be downstream of a
stacked upper- low, whose downstream moisture advection is
currently nosing through central Indiana. Coverage of showers
and storms this afternoon and evening is still questionable,
especially given the lackluster verification of the past 24
hours. The slow evolution of today`s POPs will likely linger
into Wednesday morning for a portion of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A wet pattern is ahead as a series of upper level systems drift
across the CONUS and reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
The core of initial system was over northeast MO early this
morning with energy extending well south to near the Red River
over southern Oklahoma. This system will spread additional
showers and scattered storms across the area mainly this
afternoon and tonight. The environment ahead of this system will
consist of very low CAPE values with tall/thin CAPEs. Bulk shear
will remain low and should not be enough to support severe
storms. Saturation up to 300 mb is expected with high
precipitable water values (1.2 to 1.4") which will favor heavy
downpours which could lead to brief local flooding of poor
drainage areas and possible an isolated urban area. A second in
the series of upper level system will bring an additional round
of rain showers and scattered storms Thursday night through
Friday with lingering showers possible Saturday. The environment
ahead of this system will be similar to the one today and
favorable for heavy downpours. More energy arrive early next
week a support more showers and storms. Highs Sunday should be
close to 80 with dew points probably topping 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-level troughing continues remains over the area this morning
and a few scattered showers are noted on latest radar imagery.
The TAF sites look to remain mostly dry through 17z Tue for KFWA
and through 22z Tue for KSBN. After these times MVFR conditions
with light rain slightly lowering vsbys/cigs. There will be the
chance for a few thunderstorms later this afternoon across the
area but did not feel confident enough for KSBN and only added
the mention of thunder for KFWA after 19z Tue.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Brown
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen