Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 262024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
424 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers exist across the area and those will begin to
  taper off through the afternoon. A renewed chance of showers
  exists ahead of the actual front but those showers will be
  confined to areas along Interstate 64.

- Temperatures cool to within a few degrees of normal through
  Thursday, with the threat for sub-freezing temperatures
  returning for many western valley locations Thursday morning and
  all valley areas Friday morning.

- PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend,
  with temperatures returning to well above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 346 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

Current surface analysis is pretty active with multiple surface lows
working across the CONUS. The first one is tracking across the Upper
Midwest with a cold front extending southward to the Gulf Coast. The
second is a low moving across the Deep South. The Deep South low
continues to keep cloud cover across the area with a little assistance
in the wind fields. The main culprit responsible for the weather in
the Commonwealth is the Midwest low. As of the 15Z surface analysis,
the cold front is beginning to cross into the Commonwealth. Current
radar has a line of showers developing ahead of the cold front. The
showers moving through presently are beginning to shift off to the
east. Showers will slowly taper off from west to east over the next
couple of hours before a small break in the rain arrives and then a
few isolated showers associated with the front. Those showers with
the front look to be mostly isolated to areas along I-64 as a
southerly winds are forecast to advect drier air into the area and
keep moisture availability to a minimum ahead of the front. Ahead of
the front, high temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper-
50s and possibly into the low-60s in a few locations.

Once the front comes through tonight, on the backside of the front,
temperatures and clouds will be decreasing. Overnight lows are
forecast to bottom out in the lower-40s along the I-75 corridor and
mid-40s for areas east. Cooler air is in place as surface high
pressure builds into the area for Wednesday with highs climbing back
into the upper-50s to low-60s in a few areas. Continued decreasing
clouds will allow for overnight lows to fall across the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Wednesday night lows are forecast to
be in the upper-20s to low-30s with the potential for frost
developing across the area by early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

The period will start with a progressive upper level trough over the
Great Lakes and Midwest, along with an associated surface cold
front. The trough is expected to depart to the east and remove
support for southward frontal propagation before the front can reach
us. The front is currently forecast to stall across IN and OH on
Thursday night and Friday, with whatever limited precip there is
staying close to the front. Surface high pressure moving from AR on
Thursday to the southeast CONUS Atlantic coastal waters by Friday
night should be our controlling feature. Broad ridging aloft will
move over us on Friday and Friday night, promoting a warming trend
as the surface high departs to the east.

A shortwave trough rippling through the upper ridge will help to
flatten it and will support a weak surface low moving across the
Midwest and Great Lakes during the weekend. This will send the
aforementioned frontal boundary south, with both the GFS and ECMWF
suggesting it reaches somewhere into KY on Sunday before it again
stalls. A modest increase in moisture is also anticipated, which
could support some showers near the front.

By Sunday, a large upper level trough should have developed over the
western CONUS, with a lee low over the central high plains. As the
trough shifts eastward, the low will travel along the frontal
boundary and temporarily pull it back north. Flow off the gulf
will continue to bring us increasing moisture, and as the low
passes to our north and its trailing cold front approaches,
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Timing of the frontal
passage and hence highest POP is still a bit in question, but the
highest POP looks to be in the neighborhood of Monday night or
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

MVFR and VFR conditions continue to impact TAF across the area.
That`ll persist over the next several hours as showers continue
to work across the region. Once showers taper off, CIGS and VSBYs
will begin to improve toward VFR but mainly toward 00Z/Wednesday.
Winds will continue to be gusty out of the south-southeast through
the afternoon but toward 00Z those winds will diminish and become
light and variable by 06Z. Clouds will begin to diminish;
however, overnight the actual front will move through the area
which will cause CIGS to lower back into MVFR starting around
06Z/Wednesday and then gradually improving toward 14Z. All TAF
sites are expected to improve toward VFR by the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST


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