020
FXUS63 KJKL 280529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
129 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy with light showers and sprinkles passing through
  this afternoon.

- Becoming very warm tomorrow and lasting at least through the
  middle of the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms at times next week, primarily Monday
  night and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

Minor downward adjustments were made to the minimum temperatures
overnight in valleys as observations show temperatures already
in the lower 60s. Anticipate overnight temperatures dipping into
the middle 50s in many of the valleys, except lower 50s in the
coolest hollows. Outside of the valleys, look for lows generally
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The remainder of the forecast is
on track.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

Just did a quick update to the forecast to account for the latest
trends. Isolated light rain showers and patches of sprinkles that
moved through the area late this afternoon have now dissipated.
Used the latest obs to freshen up the forecast grids and to
establish new trends in temperatures, humidity, and winds. No
updates to those forecast elements were deemed necessary at this
time. The updated grids have been saved, published, and sent to
NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

19Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between two strong
weather systems - a deep low over the Plains and strong high
pressure off to the northeast. This is keeping a sustained
southerly flow of air into the region - generally at 10 to 15 mph
with still some gusts of up to 25 mph. Under partly to mostly
cloudy skies, a couple of areas of light showers are moving
through eastern Kentucky within the large warm sector that
encompasses the region. Currently, temperatures are fairly uniform
in the mid to upper 70s while dewpoints are generally in the mid
to upper 50s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict Kentucky on the northwest fringe of a large
Southeast ridge. A weak impulse is passing through Kentucky this
afternoon and that is knocking down the 5h heights a tad as it
passes through the northern parts of the JKL CWA. Through the
weekend, a deep, but opening, closed low rolls northeast from the
Central Plains to the Upper Midwest into Monday morning. Locally,
this will mainly serve to tighten up the mid level southwest flow
during the short term portion of the forecast, but aside from the
perturbation affecting the area this afternoon there is not
appear to be much energy that will impact this part of the state
until later Monday. Given the small model spread, the NBM was used
as the starting point for the short term grids with any
adjustments mostly related to terrain distinctions at night.

Sensible weather features a warm and dry couple of days, aside
from the showers and sprinkles passing through this afternoon.
Will not deviate too much from the high end NBM output of
temperatures for Sunday under that 5h ridge and with less clouds
anticipated than today. For tonight and Sunday night, mostly clear
skies will allow for good radiational cooling both nights and set
up decent ridge to valley temperature splits. Have adjusted the
NBM guidance for temperatures to account for the terrain
distinction. Did also include a touch of river valley fog during
the late night hours each night.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were centered
around adding in terrain details to the hourly temperatures and
lows tonight and again Sunday night. Minimal PoPs after 00Z Sunday
in the NBM and they were left that way.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT SAT APR 27 2024

The latest model data still showing a consistent set up across the
country for the beginning of next week. An area of low pressure is
forecast to be pushing northeastward into the western Great Lakes
out of the central Plains Monday and Monday night. As this system
moves toward southeastern Canada, it will drag a weak cold front
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The front will make only
gradual eastward progress, however, as a strong subtropical ridge
will be dug in just of the southeastern CONUS coast and will not be
easily displaced. As the upper trough continues its northeastward
push, the ridge will finally begin to erode and moves further
offshore, allowing the front to finally move through our area from
late Monday through Tuesday. With ample low level moisture and
instability in place, showers and thunderstorms will fire along and
ahead of the approaching boundary. Our highest precipitation chances
will occur Monday night into Tuesday, as the front moves through.
The rain should gradually taper off during the day on Tuesday, with
the last showers and storms finally exiting the area sometime late
Tuesday evening.

We should see a brief lull in the precipitation, as a weak surface
ridge temporarily settles over the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. However, based on the latest model runs, enough
lift associated with a weak impulse aloft that will be rotating
around the northern edge of the ridge, could allow a few showers and
storms to form north of the Mountain Parkway in our area. After
that, another system is forecast to move our way out of the northern
Plains on Thursday. This system looks like it will not be super
strong, but will provide plenty of lift, instability, and moisture
to our area to allow showers and scattered thunderstorms to form all
across eastern Kentucky to end the week. Another batch of rain
should begin moving into our southwest counties Thursday morning,
with showers and storms gradually overspreading the area through out
the day, as another cold front slowly approaches from the west and
southwest. The front should make its main push through the region
Friday into Friday evening, before moving off to our east late
Friday night into early Saturday. With moisture wrapping around the
backside of the fronts surface heading into the weekend, isolated to
scattered storms could persist across the area on Saturday, but
should slowly taper off toward the end of the day, as the upper low
moves further to our east.

Temperatures should be well above normal through out the extended,
as persistent, vigorous southerly or southwesterly flow sets up
across the region. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s should not be
uncommon. Winds will increase and become brisk and gusty during the
passage of each weather system, especially the end of week system,
as it looks like it might have a slightly strong pressure gradient
than the early week one. Modest ridge valley temperature differences
may also occur Tuesday night and Wednesday night, between systems.
No significant weather concerns at this time. That being said,
always remember that any thunderstorm can produce locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lighting.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2024

Existing TAFs were in great shape; few to no changes needed. Right
of high pressure off the Southeast US coast remains our driver of
local weather conditions. High clouds pass by in the vicinity of
robust thunderstorms over the mid-Mississippi river valley.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BROWN