Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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869 FXUS64 KMEG 112005 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 305 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The rest of the weekend looks dry and beautiful with cool temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms return Monday into Tuesday as a slow moving cold front approaches. After a brief break midweek, another system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South late week, along with a warming trend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Most observation sites are coming in with mostly sunny skies, temperatures around 80 degrees, and a pleasant north wind this afternoon. These beautiful weekend conditions will persist into tomorrow as a cool, dry airmass continues to build in. The aurora may actually be visible again tonight; the Space Weather Prediction Center is calling for a G4 or greater Geomagnetic Storm today and tomorrow. In G4 cases, the aurora may be visible as far south as Mississippi. Sky conditions will be mostly clear and ideal for viewing if the auroras make another appearance tonight. A more unsettled pattern will begin to take shape as early as Monday afternoon when a deep low pressure system ejects from the southern Plains. While the surface low deepens and eventually occludes throughout the day Monday, its associated warm front will lift north across the Mississippi Delta in the late afternoon/evening. CAMs are just now starting to resolve this period and it looks like there will be a broad swath of showers and thunderstorms surging up after sunset on Monday. Forecast soundings depict a marginal severe threat in which the general setup is high shear / low CAPE. However, the environment also looks largely capped in the same period Monday night. This will contribute to a low, conditional threat of severe thunderstorms featuring a main threat of damaging winds and perhaps some large hail through early Tuesday morning. The occluded surface low looks to pass right over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday morning, maybe even retrograding a bit back to the west in the late afternoon. As a result, Tuesday will feature very little sunshine, temperatures on the cooler side, and PoPs in the 50-60% range all day. Expect QPF on the order of 1 inch from this Monday/Tuesday system. Forecast surface analyses suggest a brief break in between fronts midweek. Temperatures should climb back into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday with little to no chance of rain until Thursday afternoon when the next front approaches. A similar setup looks to materialize again Friday morning with a warm front lifting north across the Delta. This looks to be more of a heavy rain situation than a severe weather setup. Moisture looks extremely plentiful across the region late next week with PWATs around 1.75 inches, exceeding the 95th percentile for this time of year. In addition, storm motion looks to have a training component over the course of several hours. QPF is around 2 inches for portions of north Mississippi for Thursday and Friday alone. CAD && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A dry reinforcing front is currently moving through MEM, MKL, and JBR. No clouds or rain are expected, but occasional wind gusts to 15 kts are possible. Surface high pressure will become centered over the region late tonight, resulting in light and variable winds areawide. Winds will turn around to the south near the end of the period. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...AC3