969
FXUS62 KTBW 151841
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is moving across the southeast this afternoon
while at the surface, low pressure spins off the mid-Atlantic coast
and a surface boundary remains draped across the Florida peninsula.
This setup has fueled some strong thunderstorms so far today, though
most of these have been over inland areas where the atmosphere was
less stable. This activity will continue to slowly spread southward
through the rest of the day and even into tonight as the boundary
slowly moves southward. The front stalls tonight into Thursday, with
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continuing mainly along
and to the south of the boundary, with drier air moving in to the
north. This boundary starts to lift back northward on Friday as
another storm system moves toward the southeast. Low-level flow
becomes south to southwest again, leading to an increase in moisture
and rain chances starting across the northern half of the area for
Saturday and shifting south for Sunday. The front moves through
the region Sunday into Sunday night, with drier air returning for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
MVFR/VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon with
some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. Have
kept TEMPO groups in for most sites for the possibility of
restrictions withing thunderstorms, but confidence is not very
high in this happening as most activity has so far stayed north or
east of the terminals. Showers and maybe a few storms will
continue to be possible through the rest of the day, however, and
some MVFR cigs will also be possible tonight as a boundary pushes
southward. VFR should return toward the later part of the
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds will continue over the waters today ahead
of a frontal boundary, with showers and thunderstorms developing and
spreading southward through the rest of the day and into tonight.
Winds will shift to the west and then northwest through Thursday as
the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the
southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and
thunderstorms for the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next few days, with no Red Flag concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  75  91 /  30  10   0  10
FMY  78  91  76  93 /  40  40   0  10
GIF  73  93  70  95 /  30  10   0  10
SRQ  76  89  74  91 /  40  20   0   0
BKV  68  90  65  94 /  20   0   0  10
SPG  78  88  78  89 /  30  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle