Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 220441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1141 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018


Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Recent water vapor imagery indicating a weak upper wave centered
over eastern South Dakota and a somewhat stronger low over central
California with main jet axis over Canada. Nebulous surface high
pressure over the central Plains keeping wind fields fairly light
east of modest lee troughing. Stratus has nearly exited northeast
Kansas to the east as of 19Z.

Overall pattern for the next several days keeps a mean upper ridge
over the central CONUS with fairly persistent low pressure over the
southwest states. This keeps synoptic forcing rather weak, but also
prevents significant mid-level capping from developing. Temperatures
should return back above normal Tuesday and remain so into the
coming holiday weekend. Current record highs are generally in the
mid 90s and are unlikely to be reached. As for precipitation
chances, did keep some slight chances in northern areas late tonight
as isentropic upglide around 305K develops with some limited
saturation. Could see isolated activity brush this area despite the
modest lift and dry mid levels. Next best chance comes late Friday
into Friday night as the current southwest wave tops the ridge and
pushes east into the Great Lakes. This may bring a modest boundary
into the area and provide some focus for convection. As the week
progresses, however, it`s hard to completely rule out mainly
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms especially beyond Tuesday
night with only a very weak cap suggested. Have kept any fog out of
the forecast for tonight into early Tuesday despite only modest
daytime heating after the early-day stratus as winds aloft pick up
behind the exiting surface high.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR conditions should prevail with ground fog looking less likely
given the cirrus overspreading the area. Elevated storm chances look
to remain near the NEB state line and models maintain the core of
the low level jet to the west of MHK. So LLWS looks to be a low
probability event.




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