Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 250541
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will keep clouds and some shower activity
around the area through Wednesday. High pressure and dry
conditions will be in place for Thursday. A weak system will
bring some light shower activity to the region Friday into
Friday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper low over central Kentucky will continue to gradually
progress east through the night. Could still be some spotty
showers along the northern and eastern periphery of the forecast
area, but from the most part it will be dry. Looks like
conditions will be favorable for some fog development,
especially to the north of Dayton, despite persistent clouds.
Expect temperatures to only drop a few degrees from evening
readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Some residual shower activity will be present on Wednesday as an
upper level disturbance moves primarily north of the the area.

Cloud cover will persist although may start to see some breaks
in the clouds late in the day and then into the overnight hours.

Slightly cooler air will work into the region with lows in the
upper 30s to the low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure will be found across the region on
Thursday. Our focus will shift to an upper level closed low poised
to move east across the Tennessee Valley and then take a turn to the
northeast. We should see a dry day Thursday. The GFS is the model
closest to our region with the upper level low to our southeast
Thursday night. For now, have kept the threat of any showers just
off to our east/southeast.

On Friday, an upper level s/wv is forecast to push southeast into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A weak front will move through at
the surface. Clouds, and perhaps a few showers, are expected post
frontal as this boundary and it upper level feature move through the
region. By Friday night, these features will have moved off to the
east.

Models continue to indicate that a digging mid level trough will
occur over the Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England
Saturday into Saturday night. As this a occurs, a cold front will
push south through our region. This front should be dry with the
main effects occurring on Sunday with cooler and drier air expected
as surface high pressure builds into the region. Some indications
are that it may end up being cooler than currently forecast. Will
continue to monitor trends.

For early next week, the surface high will move east while a mid
level ridge builds into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will
bring dry weather along with a warming trend as return flow and
warmer air push into the region.

As for temperatures, lower to mid 60s should occur for highs
Thursday through Saturday, with cooler temperatures on Sunday (could
be cooler, we will monitor). Highs will then moderate into the 70s
by early next week, more typical of late April and early May.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Many locations are IFR this morning with surface low pressure
located well off to our southeast. A surface cold front is
currently located across northern Indiana with visibilities low
ahead of the front (and across our area as well). The general
idea is for these low visibilities to continue ahead of the
front and through the higher terrain of the central parts of the
CWA (such as KILN). There will likely be some lower
visibilities and ceilings at KDAY as well.

Wednesday morning after sunrise visibilities will slowly start
to come up with northwest winds and drier mid and upper level
air starting to work into the area. By late afternoon all TAF
sites will be VFR as the cold front washes over the area. An
upper level disturbance will also cross over the region
Wednesday afternoon which could bring some isolated/ weak
showers, but think this chance is to limited to mention in the
TAFs at this time.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Haines



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