087
FXUS64 KLIX 131939
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A weak shortwave moving through eastern Texas this afternoon has
slightly eroded the northwestern edge of an upper ridge centered
over the easter Gulf of America. Radar trends over the last few
hours clearly reflect this with very high coverage across the
western half of the CWA. Based on obs close enough to cells, the
environment looks to be supporting 30-40 mph downdrafts which is
similar to yesterday. The probably bigger potential impact, albeit
small-scale, will be locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 2-3"
could lead to urban flooding, especially if convective development
becomes hung up on one of the dozens of outflow boundaries moving
around this afternoon.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The upper trough will progress east and lift northward starting this
upcoming week next week. This will allow the ridge nearby to spread
back north across the northern Gulf Coast. Not sure how much less
coverage overall we`ll have, but the more likely result will be a
later convective initiation. Combine that with forecast highs
solidly in the mid 90s Monday along with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s to yield borderline heat advisory conditions. With it so
close and probable later initiation, decided to go ahead with the
advisory for tomorrow. It`s likely that we`ll need to reissue
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday depending on increasing rainfall
coverage as we transition from heat to wet.

Models continue to showcase an increasing mid to late week
convective coverage increase as an inverted trough tracks across
Florida and westward over the northern Gulf Coast. It looks like
quite deep tropical moisture with a large envelope of 2.5"+ PW which
is well above the 90th percentile and actually right near peak
values for this time of year. Way to soon to determine if it`ll
attain tropical characteristics. Regardless, the local area would be
in a fairly wet pattern for a few to several days.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Radar over the last couple hours shows numerous showers and storms
across the entire area. Most terminals will see at least short
term impact from this activity at some point today. The current
environment looks to support storm gusts 30-40kts for brief
instances. MVFR to VFR conditions outside TSRA the rest of the day
then VFR the rest of the period until late Monday morning when
convection starts back up.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Relatively quiet marine conditions will continue through the next
few days as high pressure remains overhead or at least nearby. Winds
generally onshore at 10 knots or less with seas under 2 feet. The
only exception would be brief gale force wind gusts from isolated
storms. A broad area of low pressure moving into the northeastern
Gulf middle of next week my induce offshore flow as it approaches.
If it tracks north of the local waters, offshore winds continue. If
its south of the area, onshore flow can be expected. Regardless, did
increase winds by about 5 knots over NBM deterministic to attempt to
account for pressure gradient influence.

MEFFER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  73  95 /  20  40   0  30
BTR  74  93  75  95 /  10  50   0  30
ASD  73  93  74  95 /  10  40   0  40
MSY  78  93  78  95 /  10  50   0  40
GPT  75  93  76  95 /  10  40  10  40
PQL  73  93  75  96 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ046>048-
     056>060-064-065-070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME