Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 180840

National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

An upper level trough is currently moving through the Desert
Southwest and will be tracking across the southern Rockies today. An
upper level impulse on the east side of this shortwave will be
passing across the forecast area today. This will enhance shower and
thunderstorm coverage from west to east beginning early this
morning. By midday, most of the CWA should have been impacted by
convection. Increasing wind shear and instability will provide the
potential for low end severe storms...mainly in northern portions of
the forecast area near southwest Mississippi. The predominate threat
will be strong downdraft winds with hail as the lesser threat.
Stronger storms will be shifting south and east during the afternoon
hours. Parts west will be left with possibly a few showers mixed
with scattering clouds. From a temp perspective, highs will moderate
into at least the mid/upper 70s. MAV guidance brings temps up well
into the lower 80s for many locations. It will take quick eastward
movement of convection and clearing on the backside for temps to
rise that much. Decided to go conservative by a few degrees.

Scattered light showers will pass across the forecast area Monday
morning through early afternoon as a prefrontal trough swings
through. The actual cold front will finally reach the CWA Monday
night into Tuesday morning as a secondary nose of the trough digs
south across the central Gulf Coast. Cooler air will be quickly
filtering into the area during those early morning hours. Should
bottom out around the mid 50s by sunrise Tuesday. Strong
northwesterly winds will limit the diurnal range to around 10

Persistent troughing/nw_flow will be in place across the CWA through
much of the week. This will keep temps at to below normal during
that time frame and a dry forecast with no rain till possibly the
next weekend.



Somehwat difficult forecast period as fog formation has lowered
conditions to IFR or LIFR levels at most locations. More
destabilization will occur by mid-morning as daytime heating will
lead to VFR cloud bases that lower in scattered convection Sunday



Onshore flow to continue for much of today before becoming disrupted
a bit with a frontal zone settling across the Gulf states by
tomorrow morning. A surge of high pressure pushes the front into the
northern Gulf late Monday night with high pressure bringing strong
northerly gradient winds and building seas to the coastal waters
heading into Tuesday. Small craft advisories will be needed by
Tuesday morning. Winds and seas should begin to wane by Wednesday.


DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring river flooding

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  76  64  84  52 /  70  40  30  10
BTR  81  64  84  54 /  70  30  30  10
ASD  78  67  82  57 /  70  30  30  10
MSY  78  66  82  59 /  70  20  30  10
GPT  75  67  78  59 /  70  30  30  10
PQL  76  67  80  61 /  70  30  40  10



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