397
FXUS63 KLSX 100348
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1048 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers are possible across portions of the area tonight.
  Thunderstorms return the first half of next week. Strong to
  severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated.

- Temperatures will be cooler than normal Friday, but seasonable
  the rest of the forecast period.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper trof continues to swing SE into the region this afternoon.
As it does, the clouds and showers associated with the trof will
also continue to advect into the region. Better coverage of precip
shud remain along northeastern portions of the CWA as the vort max
moves SE.

Going forecast may have too few clouds for Friday. Ample boundary
layer moisture shud allow stratus overnight to develop into CU
field under the May sun. With sfc ridge building into the region
and continued CAA, expect temps on Fri to remain below seasonal
avg.

Tilly

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A fast moving trof shud brush the area on Sat leaving NW flow over
the region. Temps shud return this weekend with ample solar
insolation. This trend continues thru the end of the forecast
period.

Upper low currently over the Rockies ejects into the Plains early
next week. Model solns continue to vary next week with differences
in phasing of upper level pattern. Nevertheless, pattern shud
support more rain compared to dry time.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

MVFR ceilings rotating in from the north tonight have begun to
break up and confidence has decreased in how much of our area will
be affected and for how long. It is possible that a brief period
of MVFR occurs more broadly shortly after sunrise. If clouds don`t
fill in more overnight, then there could be some localized areas
of fog developing. Conditions improve Friday morning with VFR
expected area wide by late morning.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX