Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 232345
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.AVIATION...
With convection waning this evening, and indications most sites
will be dry overnight, took out nocturnal SHRA at most sites,
although a few coastal SHRA will be possible, so KFLL, and even
KPBI may have some SHRA. Tomorrow looks to bring more SHRA in the
morning, then TSRA in the afternoon once again. Have VCTS for now,
but will as timing is narrowed in models, TEMPO groups will
likely be added. This is ahead of a weak cold front which should
move through and quiet things down tomorrow night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 734 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

UPDATE...
Lowered pops along the east coast metro areas for the overnight
hours based on radar trends and short term model output. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will once again redevelop across the
region on Tuesday. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be across the interior and east coast metro areas. The main
threats for these storms will be heavy downpours and frequent
lightning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Sea breezes have developed this afternoon with scattered showers
and thunderstorms affecting mainly the eastern half of South
Florida. There remains enough instability in place to still
support a strong thunderstorm or two across the region. The main
threats with these storms are frequent lightning, heavy downpours,
and wind gusts up to 60 mph. As the evening progresses,
stabilization in the wake of the convection from this afternoon
should allow for shower coverage to decrease just a little bit
overnight, however there will still be likely pops over the east
coast metro areas and the Atlantic coastal waters.

On Tuesday, the latest computer model guidance shows the front
getting closer to South Florida and the winds continuing to veer
around to the southwest. The west coast sea breeze will move
across the peninsula and collide with the east coast sea breeze
near the east coast metro areas during the afternoon. This will
allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop
especially in the northeastern portion of South Florida. A few
strong thunderstorms are once again possible with the main threat
being heavy downpours and frequent lightning. The cold front will
move through on Tuesday night and shower and thunderstorm activity
will decrease as the night progresses.

Behind the front, drier and more stable air will move into the
region on Wednesday and for the rest of the work week. A couple of
shortwave troughs will move through by the weekend and could
increase the chance of shower activity during that time, but that
will be something that needs to be watched as the models are still
in disagreement in regards to the timing of these features.

MARINE...
Winds will start to veer around to southwest Tuesday across the
local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible especially across the Atlantic waters and Lake
Okeechobee. The activity will be more isolated over the Gulf
waters. Locally higher winds and waves are expected around
any thunderstorms. Winds turn to moderate northwest late Tuesday
night into Wednesday behind a front with drying conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  85  66  84 /  60  70  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  85  70  84 /  50  50  20  10
Miami            73  86  69  86 /  40  40  20  10
Naples           71  84  68  82 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...55/CWC
DISCUSSION...55/CWC
MARINE...55/CWC
AVIATION...13



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