Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 221045

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


A tropical wave is along 27W from 15N southward, moving W around
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within
180 nm east of the wave axis, mainly from 02N-05N. The CIMSS
700-850 mb Layered Precipitable Water product clearly depicts the
tropical wave. The wave is analyzed about 3 degrees east of the
model diagnosed location of the 700 mb trough.


The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and
extends to 11N19W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to
05N24W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 03N30W to
05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N
between 16W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
south and 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W and the coast of
South America.


A 1018 mb surface high centered in the western Atlantic extends a
ridge westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fair weather
prevails except for isolated showers and thunderstorms seen west
of Port Charlotte Florida from 25N-27N between 82.5W-83.5W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail in the eastern Gulf. There is still a
fairly strong pressure gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico
between the high in the W Atlantic and low pressure over northern
Mexico and the Central Plains. This is causing fresh SE winds for
much of the western Gulf, with locally strong winds over portions
of the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. The low pressure over the
Central Plains will weaken during the next couple of days and
allow winds over most of the western Gulf to gradually diminish
through Friday. However, surface troughs moving W from the Yucatan
will generate strong winds over the Bay of Campeche each night
through Sunday night.

Smoke from fires across Mexico continues to be noted in satellite
data and observations over the western Gulf. Although the smoke
is not as dense as previous days, it is still noticeable in
portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, close to the Mexican
coast. The smoke will continue to produce hazy skies in the
western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche during the next few days.


Upper-level divergence is present in the southwest Caribbean,
according to the CIMSS analysis. This is enhancing scattered to
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N-14N west
of 80W. The remainder of the central Caribbean is covered by a
broad area of cloudiness with isolated to scattered showers from
73W-80W, and this extends over the northern Caribbean to
Hispaniola. The ASCAT pass from Tuesday evening shows fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and fresh winds north
of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean
and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night. A tropical wave
is expected to reach the Tropical Atlantic waters by early Sat.


A 1018 surface high near 31N75W is supporting fair to partly
cloudy weather across the far west Atlantic west of 73W. Just N
of this high, an E-W cold front is pushing southward and is down
to 32N. The cold front will sink south across the northern waters
through Thursday. Moderate winds will prevail elsewhere across the
region through Sat. Currently, the remnants of Andrea have moved
north of the forecast area near 32N67W and continue to weaken. An
upper-level low is near 28N69W. A surface trough is analyzed from
28N68W to 21N72W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted from
23N-29N between 63W-68W. Isolated showers and tstorms are
elsewhere from 22N-31N between 62W-71W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin. Near the coast of Morocco, in
the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya, strong to near gale NE winds
will continue into Thursday.

For additional information please

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