Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 252346
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
746 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A sunny and dry start to the week with seasonal temperatures
followed by clouds and a periods of rain from Tuesday through
Thursday. Fair weather with brisk winds and slightly cooler
temperatures will close out the week on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Ridging at the surface and aloft along the east coast will supply
the region with fair weather tonight. Southeast winds should
become light after sunset near the ridge axis across Eastern
PA. However, a tightening gradient between the ridge and low
pressure over the Miss Valley will result in gusty winds across
the Allegheny Plateau. Gusts up to 40 mph appear possible on
the ridgetops of the Alleghenies (above the mainly decoupled
BLYR in the valleys) based on model soundings.

Clear skies, light wind and relatively dry air should result in
efficient radiational cooling across the eastern half of the
forecast area, where min temps are likely to dip a bit below NBM
guidance. Upstream satellite imagery suggests a bit of cirrus
will work into the region late tonight, while model soundings
indicate patchy stratus will develop over the eastern edge of
the forecast area toward dawn in association with an
increasingly moist easterly flow off of the Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will feature a squeeze play between an approaching upper
trough over the midwest and marine layer stratus backing in
from the Atlantic. Latest model guidance indicates falling
heights and surging pwats along the attendant low level jet will
support showers arriving over the Allegheny Plateau by early
evening. In the east, model soundings indicate maritime stratus
is likely to persist through the day over the Susq Valley. In
between, the central mountains may manage a partly sunny and dry
day. Have leaned a bit cooler than NBM for max temps Tuesday
over the eastern counties, due to easterly flow and low clouds.
Highs should range from the low to mid 50s over the western half
of the forecast area, to the upper 40s over the higher terrain
of Sullivan/Schuylkill counties.

A broken band of showers is progged to slowly shift east across
the region Tuesday night along the axis of the low level jet.
The strongest large scale forcing and highest POPs should occur
over the NW Mtns Tuesday evening associated with the passage of a
lead shortwave over the Eastern Grt Lks. Waning large scale
forcing behind this feature will result in lower POPs further
east. Ensemble plumes indicate rainfall by Wed AM will be
generally less than 0.10 inches. Cloud cover, an active
southeast breeze and surging low level moisture should result in
a much milder Tues night than recent nights with lows in 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the
region late Wednesday. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead
of this feature will keep the scattered showers in forecast for
Wednesday. A few lingering showers are likely to accompany the
cold/occluded front, as it slowly pushes east across the region
Wed night. All medium range guidance develops an area of low
pressure on the stalling front over the southeast coast, then
tracks it northeast late this week. The bulk of ensemble members
keep this system too far east to affect most of Central PA.
However, enough members track it close enough to support a
chance of rain over the southeast part of the forecast area
Thursday. Plumes indicate if it does rain, substantial amounts
of near 1 inch are possible.

There is a broad agreement among guidance that fair and
seasonable conditions return for Friday, as large scale
subsidence overspreads the state behind the exiting upper
trough. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain or showers Sat or Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conds will continue through the day today, as
high pressure over southeastern Canada ridges southward into
the northeastern United States. Beneath a mostly sunny sky, a
southeasterly breeze will develop areawide and become a bit
gusty by aftn (15-20 kts).

The increasingly moist southeasterly flow will continue into
tonight, and models suggest that low clouds may try to work
their way westward into the Susq Valley during the pre-dawn
hours on Tuesday. The highest probability for reduced cigs will
be over the Lower Susq Valley (LNS/MDT), where ensemble models
indicate a 70+% chc of sub-VFR cigs before 12z Tuesday.

We may also see LLWS develop over the western highlands, as a
40-50 kt southeasterly low-level jet pushes in from the Ohio
Valley.

Outlook...

Tue...Increasing clouds areawide.

Tue night-Wed...Rain/low cigs possible.

Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.

Thu night-Fri...Improving conds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl


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