807
FXUS64 KFWD 171956
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
/Through Saturday/

We are monitoring two areas for potential isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon. The first is across portions of
western North Texas near the axis of an eastward-progressing mid-
level trough. A couple of weak radar echoes can already be
observed northwest of Throckmorton, TX. The second location is
north of I-20 primarily near/along the Red River where surface low
pressure in south-central Oklahoma is leading to a dense cumulus
field. With subtle ascent from these features and some help from
daytime heating, a lack of focusable surface boundaries will keep
storm coverage rather isolated (15-25% chance north of I-20). It
is entirely possible that much of this afternoon`s activity
remains north of the Red River in Oklahoma, but recent CAM
guidance does highlight the potential for a storm or two in our
forecast area. Although we will have ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the
areas of interest this afternoon, only 20-25 kts of 0-6km shear
should keep the severe threat on the lower end. However, we cannot
rule out some hail or gusty winds IF a thunderstorm develops.
Again, it is uncertain if we will have enough lift for a parcel to
achieve its LFC here in our forecast area. Decaying showers and
thunderstorms over the Hill Country may make a run for our far
southwestern zones later this evening/early overnight (10%
chance), however it is much more likely they dissipate before
reaching our forecast area.

As we move into the overnight, expect clearing skies with
temperatures lowering into the low to mid-60s by early Saturday
morning. There is potential for some patchy fog across our
eastern-southeastern zones early Saturday morning as well. Ridging
aloft will begin to develop overhead Saturday beginning a much-
needed several day reprieve from rain chances. South-southwesterly
low-level flow and plentiful sunshine will allow for temperatures
to peak in the mid-80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across
the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing
southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by
drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and
humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the
week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat
indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.

Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a
pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak
cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely
bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south
of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain
north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front
farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will
provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt
of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model
guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection
appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the
Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to
severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to
training storms and localized flooding.

With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the
specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more
details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next
few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the
region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance
of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at
some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all TAF
sites. FEW to SCT 025-030 cigs will likely persist through this
afternoon. Expect light west-northwesterly winds through this
afternoon shifting south-southwest later this evening, becoming
variable at times during the overnight.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of North Texas
this afternoon, however the bulk of this activity is expected to
remain near the Red River and north of the D10 sites. Patchy fog
will be possible across portions of east and southeast TX early
Saturday morning, but should largely remain displaced from KACT
and the D10 sites.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  92  71  91  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                66  88  69  88  69 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               63  87  66  88  69 /  20   5   0   0   0
Denton              63  91  68  91  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            64  89  68  90  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              67  92  70  91  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  88  68  88  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  90  70  90  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              64  89  68  88  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  91  68  91  71 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$