000
FXUS64 KFWD 232354
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
654 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 645 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/
/Tonight through Sunday Night/

A quiet, breezy, and to no surprise, warm night is again in store
for North and Central Texas. Overnight lows tonight will range
in the 60s to around 70 in the DFW Metroplex. A plume of moisture
from the Gulf will usher in increased cloud cover overnight,
which should dissipate somewhat to mostly clear skies by mid
afternoon Sunday. Afternoon highs should reach into the 80s for a
majority of the region, and even into the low 90s for our
northwestern counties (where lower RH is sustained). The well-
mixed boundary layer that has been present for the last couple of
days will allow for our breezy southerly winds to continue through
the evening hours on Sunday before decreasing in speed due to the
approaching cold front.

Tomorrow night has somewhat of a different feel than the last
handful of days, as a cold front scoots its way toward North
Texas. We will start to see some effects of the front in the short
term period, as southerly winds will change to an easterly flow
and isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms will be
possible for our northeastern corner of counties through the
overnight hours into Monday morning.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/
/Sunday Night through Next Week/

There is potential for a few medium to high impact weather
episodes next week. The first is low potential for isolated strong
to severe storms across our far Northeastern counties Sunday
evening and night. The next will move into the area Tuesday and
clear the area Wednesday. This system will initially bring rain
and thunderstorm chances to Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. More
widespread rain and thunderstorm chances arrive Tuesday night into
Wednesday along a strong cold front. There will be a threat of
severe weather with this mid-week system. Finally, it should be
quite windy across the region Thursday/Friday. Please keep up with
the forecast over the coming days as the extent of the threats and
hazards come into better focus.

Meteorological Details...
Sunday Night:
A robust, but compact, low pressure system will eject out of the
Plains and move into the Midwest Sunday. An attendant cold front
will slide south and approach our Red River counties late in the
day. The low level flow aloft ahead of the front will become
heavily veered and become near parallel to the surface boundary.
This will limit the moisture flux into the boundary and shunt all
the precip chances east/northeast. A few tail-end showers and
storms are possible across our far northeastern counties, but we
are not expecting any precip west of US-69 and south of I-20.

Monday/Monday Night:
As the upper support for the front races east, the front will
stall across our forecast area Monday, most likely overtop or just
south of our Central Texas counties. As the high pressure center
shifts east and a new leeside low deepens to our west, the stalled
front will become a clearly defined warm front. Expect the warm
front to move north across much of North Texas Monday night into
Tuesday. There is potential for some patches of dense fog Tuesday
morning, but that will largely depend on where the warm front
aligns itself.

Tuesday & Wednesday:
Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Rick will move overtop of the
Mexican high plains and move over the Texas Gulf Coast Tuesday. At
the same time, a powerful synoptic system will move into the
Western CONUS. As the trough/low moves out of the intercontinental
West, strong height falls will overspread the plains and deepen
the aformentioned leeside low. Expect breezy south winds Tuesday
with strong warm and moist advection in the low levels. The
addition of mid/upper moisture brought in by the remnants of Rick
will provide sufficient deep-layer moisture for showers and storms
to develop Tuesday afternoon. Most of this activity will remain
to our south, however, we have continued to advertise 20-30 PoPs
for our eastern Central Texas counties. The remainder of the
forecast area should remain capped with little to no storm
chances.

The synoptic system will eject out of the Rockies Tuesday night
and send a strong cold front east/south. We expect widespread
showers and storms to develop along and head of the front across
the entire region Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday for our
eastern counties. As with any system this far out, the nuances of
this system are still TBD such as the timing, strength of the
front, and the extent/details of the severe hazards. What we do
know is that there will be sufficient shear, lift, and moisture
for strong to severe storms.

The front will bring a much cooler and drier airmass to the region
to close out the work week and last into next weekend. Despite the
cooler temperatures, they will still be within a few degrees of
the climo normals for this time of the year.

Thursday & Friday:
Windy conditions are expected Thursday/Friday next week. The upper
low responsible for the mid-week front will stall and continue to
deepen over the Eastern CONUS, leaving us on the subsident and dry
side of the low. A dry conveyer belt is projected to crash down
toward the surface late in the day and overnight coinciding with a
50-55 kt low level jet. The subsident air will allow for strong
downward momentum transfer and gusty winds likely approaching or
exceeding our Wind Advisory criteria if the guidance maintains
consistency.

Please keep up with the latest forecasts tomorrow and early next
week as the details and specific hazards come more into focus.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR with southerly flow around 15 kt will prevail through the late
evening. Another round of MVFR cigs will develop across Central TX
after midnight and spread north through the early morning hours.
While there could be some intermittent cigs just a tad below 1000
ft, MVFR should generally prevail. VFR with gusty southerly winds
will prevail Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move
through Sunday night. Winds will become northerly behind the front
just beyond the current TAF period.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  88  64  87  67 /   0   5   5   0   0
Waco                69  88  67  91  70 /   5   5   0   0   0
Paris               67  86  62  82  60 /   0  10  30   0   0
Denton              67  87  58  85  62 /   0   5   5   0   0
McKinney            69  86  62  86  63 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              70  87  66  87  68 /   0   5   5   0   0
Terrell             67  87  64  87  65 /   0   5   5   0   0
Corsicana           68  88  67  88  69 /   5   5   5   0   0
Temple              67  88  66  91  70 /   5   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       66  89  58  87  65 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$