Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191037
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Water vapor satellite shows a vigorous upper level low spinning over
the Great Basin and swiftly moving eastward over the Rockies. The
upper jet associated with this upper low will pivot over the Rockies
and assist in lee cyclogenesis over southwestern Nebraska this
morning. As the surface cyclone slides northeastward, a cold
front will begin to surge southeastward into Kansas this
afternoon. Ahead of this cold front, the pressure gradient will
remain quite tight keeping stout southerly winds across the
region. However, better moisture (compared to yesterday) should
hold off grassland fire danger for today. The aforementioned
southerly winds will help to pull moisture northward, but it
appears there won`t be enough moisture to promote significant
precipitation. As the front pushes through the region tonight,
there may be a few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
east of I-135, but chances for any specific location seeing
measurable rainfall appears to be waning. By tomorrow afternoon,
the cooler and drier post-frontal airmass will be in place across
the CWA and will remain in place through Thursday as a surface
ridge slides eastward across the area.

In general for today, afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 70s while tonight`s lows will be in mid 40s behind the front
and in the upper 50s ahead of the front. By tomorrow afternoon, most
places will be in the 60s with perhaps some areas in southeast
Kansas sneaking into the low 70s. With Wednesday night`s lows in the
mid 30s across central Kansas, patchy frost may be possible in that
area. For many, Thursday afternoon`s temperatures will be the
coolest of the week as they will peak in the mid to upper 60s area
wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

A gradual warming trend will ensue starting on Friday in advance of
our next round of unsettled weather. Long range ensembles are
signaling a very spring-like pattern with mean troughing over the
Rockies and mean ridging over the midwest; however, there continues
to be quite a bit of uncertainty this far out in the forecast
period. With that being said, our first bout of precipitation may
occur as early as Sunday. Be sure to check back for further updates
as we approach this weekend as details regarding this weather
pattern become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Expect gusty
south winds for the afternoon hours, with some gusts across central
KS of 25 to 30 kts.

A cold front will begin to move south-southeast across KS during the
latter portions of the taf period. This will lead to a wind shift to
the west and eventually to the NW for the central KS sites of KRSL,
KGBD and KSLN after 09z/Wed. Not alot of moisture to work with as
this front pushes south, so mainly expecting a dry frontal passage
late tonight or early Wed morning. Could see a few sprinkles ahead
of the front, at best, so will include a VCSH for the KSLN and KCNU
Taf`s for this chance.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  54  67  42 /   0  20   0   0
Hutchinson      78  50  65  40 /   0  20   0   0
Newton          77  52  65  41 /   0  20   0   0
ElDorado        76  55  67  42 /   0  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   79  56  69  43 /   0  10   0   0
Russell         82  46  61  36 /   0  20   0   0
Great Bend      81  46  62  37 /   0  10   0   0
Salina          80  49  64  38 /   0  20   0   0
McPherson       78  49  64  38 /   0  20   0   0
Coffeyville     78  59  75  44 /   0  10   0   0
Chanute         77  58  72  45 /   0  20   0   0
Iola            76  58  71  44 /   0  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    78  58  74  44 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Ketcham


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