Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 092057
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Lingering morning convection across the county warning area
continued to lay several outflow boundaries across southern KS
and northern OK. These boundaries may be foci for late
afternoon/early evening convection. The atmosphere appears to be
capped for the most part to diurnal convection but a couple
isolated sfc based severe storms capable of ping pong ball size
hail and damaging winds to 60mph can`t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a
low pressure center is over the Texas panhandle with this
the residual MCS outflow boundary extending southeast across
Oklahoma.

Tonight, there is a growing consensus among high res models of a
line of elevated convection developing along an elevated baroclinic
zone which can currently be seen in stretching from near Great Bend
to near Grenola KS. Moderate moisture transport combined with a
nosing 850mb jet will provide support to initiate and sustain
convection. Very strong isentropic lift at the 315K is evident in
several models to provide further lift support. A seasonably strong
upper jet (1-3 standard deviations above normal), will be spreading
over portions of KS overnight. This strong northwesterly flow aloft,
combined with MUCAPE of 2,000-4,000 J/kg, upwards of 60+kts of
effective shear, with 8 C/kg mid level lapse rates will support
severe hail with these storms (at least initially).

Thinking the initial updrafts would be capable of golf ball size
hail, but quickly lowering to quarter size hail as storms begin
interacting with each other. Isolated significant hail can`t be
completely ruled out, however quite poor directional
shear/straight upper hodograph should act as a limiting factor in
the otherwise quite favorable environment. The effective shear
vector will be parallel to the boundary where convection is
expected to form. Thus expect the storms to remain linear before
spreading south southeast toward morning.

Very high PWs (roughly 1.9 inches) across the area will also raise
concerns for very heavy rainfall and localized flooding potential,
especially given several areas saw heavy rainfall last night.

Given moderate to high confidence that we see convection tonight
and will become widespread as it spreads south toward early
morning, thinking we will remain capped to any diurnally driven
convection for tomorrow/ evening. Tomorrow night there will be yet
another chance of some elevated showers and storms but appears
that they will either remain just along the northeast/east fringe
of the CWA. Kept in some low pops for the chance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Not much to see in the extended with upper ridging dominating the
weather pattern. Expect above normal temperatures through the period
with a couple low chances of precipitation along the CWA fringe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Elevated showers and storms over the Flint Hills and southeast KS
continue to drift southeast and will diminish during the early
afternoon hours. Other, widely scattered storms may develop along
a remnant outflow boundary over portions of south central KS with
additional activity possibly developing across south central
Kansas tonight as a LLJ noses into the area. Coverage of storms
remains uncertain, but there will be some potential for strong
and/or severe storms at least through the evening hours. We may
see a lull in activity as we move into Fri with better chances
remaining well north and east of our forecast area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  94  76 100 /  60  40  10  20
Hutchinson      72  93  74  97 /  70  40  10  10
Newton          70  91  75  97 /  60  40  10  20
ElDorado        71  91  75  97 /  60  40  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   73  94  76 102 /  50  40  10  20
Russell         68  92  72  94 /  40  20  10  20
Great Bend      69  93  72  96 /  60  20  10  10
Salina          71  93  74  96 /  30  20  10  20
McPherson       71  92  73  96 /  60  30  10  20
Coffeyville     73  93  76  99 /  30  30  20  20
Chanute         72  91  75  97 /  30  30  20  30
Iola            71  91  74  97 /  30  20  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    72  92  76  97 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...MWM


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