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000
FXUS64 KLIX 260451
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A warm day across the region has evolved. All locations except
along the immediate coast (where SSTs are lower) have warmed into
the 80s. The upper levels are currently in transition from a
northwest flow to a more southwesterly flow as the large scale
trough with embedded shortwaves shift a bit closer to our region.
With the stronger impulses, the upper ridge will suppress over
the Gulf. Although this feature gets suppressed, heights will
continue to rise across the region and once again another
warm/warmer day anticipated for Friday.

Outside of warm weather, the only other concern would be some
shallow fog. The best potential will be over the MS Gulf Coast and
SW Mississippi where the winds may drop enough to support patchy
fog, especially in the fog favored locations. This should
dissipate shortly after sunrise Friday. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Going into the upcoming weekend, active southwesterly flow will be
over top the region. Upstream, a front will have stalled over the
central planes as the orientation of the front will be parallel to
the mid/upper flow. Breezy southerly winds will help moisture
advect into the region. Although no real lift/support across the
region outside of some very modest WAA/coastal convergence a few
light showers may develop in the deep rich low level warm/moist
advection. Globals are slightly pinging this potential, however,
for now we will place silent 10 POPs this weekend outside of
perhaps some mentionable POPs out towards Wilkinson Co., MS on
Sunday as the front tries to move closer to the region.

Going into the new workweek, it would appear globals want to bring
the front a bit closer. That will help with increasing POPs with a
bit better QPF signal. However, the upper flow quickly begins to
transition the the wake of a series of upper level impulses to a
progressive flow. So, as the front tries to work its way through
the region, the upper levels will but the breaks on and perhaps
even change the orientation to a more west to east direction.
Think the front may be just close enough to keep some POPs in the
forecast early to midweek next week, but overall confidence is a
bit on the low side with some differences amongst the globals.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR at all terminals at forecast issuance, with only some cirrus
moving across the area. Can`t rule out some stratus or light fog
at sunrise, but fog threat appears to be less tonight than it was
the previous 2 nights, and that ended up being rather limited. The
only significant visibility restriction carried in the forecast
was the potential for 3SM at KMCB around sunrise, and even that
wasn`t prevailing. If there`s going to be an impact on Friday it
would be sustained southeasterly winds near or above 15 knots at
most terminals from about 15z until the loss of surface heating
toward sunset. Could see a few gusts to 25 knots or so.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Southeasterly inds start to increase on Friday and especially
through the upcoming weekend. High pressure will continue to
slide east and should push off the Atlantic coast tomorrow while
multiple surface lows develop and move northeast through the
Plains and towards the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes into the
start of the new workweek. This will tighten the pressure
gradient increasing winds and seas across our local waters. Headlines
are expected through the weekend possibly as early as late
Friday. (CAB/Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  84  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  65  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  64  84  68  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  67  84  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  65  80  68  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  62  82  65  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB