545
FXUS64 KLIX 201716
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1216 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Strong and deep ridging will dominate the Gulf South through the
entire short term period. The deep layer subsidence associated
with this strong ridge axis will result in a very strong mid-level
capping inversion remaining in place through Wednesday night. This
will effectively suppress cloud development to below the
inversion, and result in a dry forecast through the period.
Beneath the inversion, Summer like heat and humidity will be on
tap with highs easily warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s and
lows only dipping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints
remain elevated on the back of sustained onshore flow. Overall,
have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values for daytime
highs as they were on the upper end of the probabilistic spectrum.
However, deterministic lows were in line with the 25th percentile,
and have opted to raise lows up to the 75th percentile to better
reflect the high dewpoints in place. Additionally, high humidity
at night will combine with clear skies and light winds to produce
some patchy fog development during the overnight hours, especially
for more inland areas. Overall, a very benign stretch of weather
is expected through the short term with high pressure in place
over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Going into Thursday, main focus will be on the ongoing warming trend
as ridging remains parked over the southern US. Highs were not
modified much from deterministic NBM forecast values, climbing into
the mid 90`s possible late week into the Memorial Day Weekend which
lies on the 75th percentile of the NBM ensemble envelope. Be aware,
this does yield heat indicies crossing into the upper 90`s to low
100`s for many locations. While not excessive, could be strenuous to
those spending time outdoors during the holiday weekend. With this
being the first time in the year seeing highs and attendant heat
indicies heat up this much, messaging will be focused for those to
exercise caution spending time outdoors for extended periods. Also,
kept the warmer bias in overnight lows going from the short-term
into the long-term with warmer than average temperatures persisting.

Additionally, not seeing much in the way of rain chances. Will make
one small note about the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Seeing some
deterministic runs hint at a few subtle shortwave impulses/PVA riding
along the west to east mid-level flow. The response is a few
MCS/thunderstorm complexes over Texas perhaps nosing into western
Louisiana or into the NW Gulf. This will need to be watched, as any
stronger cold-pool propagated complex (in conjunction with attendant
weak PVA/forcing) could press more east than global guidance
suggests (as global guidance typically struggles at convective
allowing processes). Will monitor trends but for now, holding onto
NBM values keeping it hot and mainly dry this upcoming weekend.
Something to check back on. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Clear skies and light winds through the period will lead to no
appreciable impacts for most terminals. Will have a similar setup
as this morning on tomorrow morning with a shallow inversion
aiding in light fog and low cloud development. A few terminals
such as KMCB, KBTR, and KASD may see MVFR visibilities from the
light fog. Otherwise, VFR will dominate the forecast.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A fairly benign period of weather is expected over the coastal
waters through the end of the week as a broad ridge of high
pressure dominates the region. A persistent southeasterly wind of
around 10 knots and relatively calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are
expected through the end of the week. The high pressure system
over the area will also keep thunderstorm development at bay, so
no waterspout, lightning, or localized gusty winds are anticipated
through Friday. Overall, a great week for boating activities is
on tap.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  70  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  74  89  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  86  74  87 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  89  71  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...PG