294
FXUS62 KMHX 140558
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
158 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the
area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in late
Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 740 PM Monday...No major changes with the forecast.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Mon...Upper trough will
continue to shift east as a wave of low pressure migrates along
a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast
overnight. Broad serly flow will develop over the Carolinas
overnight and dew points will steadily climb into the 60s
through the early morning hours. This, combined with steadily
increasing cloud cover, will contribute to considerably warmer
overnight lows as temperatures struggle to fall below the low
60s. A few stray pre- dawn showers are possible across the
coastal plain with increasing isentropic lift, but more robust
rainfall will hold off until after daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...Trimmed back Schc PoPs a tad for Tuesday
afternoon/evening with a lack of instability expected due to
poor lapse rates. Otherwise no major changes with this forecast
update.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Mon...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley during the day,
while deep srly flow inc throughout the day. Precip chances
steadily inc from w to e as broad area of isentropic ascent
moves through. Showers will be sct to numerous on Tue, with
60-80% pops cont, highest in the afternoon hours. Trended back
on thunder mention to wrn areas and later in the pd, as
instability will be quite meager. Thunder will be elevated in
nature anyhow, so no severe threat is expected. QPF amts should
by around a half inch with locally higher amts by later in the
day. Warm and humid with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on
Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late
in the week.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low
pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and
then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing
off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances peak Tuesday
night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture
increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75".
Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the
upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across
the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms cont into
Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and
any severe potential appears minimal. However, Wednesday will
have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level
support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled
with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. SPC has a marginal risk (1
of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain on Wednesday.
Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip
amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections
potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be seasonable
with highs in the mid 70s on Tuesday and low to mid 80s on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridging builds in from the west
Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest
solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated
showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and
will keep slight chance PoPs attm. Ridging crests over the area
Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another
frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week
but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as
it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the
weekend. But despite the differences, most guidance brings
another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wed/...
As of 155 AM Tue...There is a high chance (90%) of sub-VFR
flight conditions over the next 24 hours with a high chance
(70%) of IFR or worse.

VFR conditions prevail over area terminals early this morning,
but conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate through
today as a complex area of low pressure currently draped along
the Gulf Coast lifts towards the Carolinas tonight.
Isentropically-driven showers are expected to begin around dawn,
migrating across terminals from the south and west, and
prevailing MVFR conditions will accompany this activity. The
heaviest rainfall will most likely occur after 18z as strongest
lift, juxtaposed with deepest moisture, pivots across ENC from
the southwest. Predominantly IFR conditions are likely with this
heavier activity and will linger through the remainder of the
period. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly for EWN and OAJ
after 21-22z.

Southeasterly winds gust this afternoon to 15-20 kt,
then calm and veer south to southwesterly as surface low lifts
across NC late tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...A low pressure system will impact the
area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions
expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into
Wednesday. Sub- VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with
plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday
but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR
conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system
will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR
possible Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...As a low makes its approach towards the
Carolinas, pressure gradient will tighten with winds reaching
15-20 kt by daybreak on Tuesday. Seas remain at around 2-4 feet
through tonight, then building to 4-6 ft Tue morning primarily
across the srn waters. Winds and seas build north through the
day, and reach SCA for the Pamlico sound as well as
Neuse/Pamlico Rivers and ctrl waters later in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of
the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We
may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of
the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak
around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside
Wednesday. A cold front will push across the waters Wednesday
night with winds becoming Nly around 10-15 kt and seas around 3
to 5 ft through Thursday. High pressure build into the area
Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday
with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt late in the day ahead
of the next frontal system.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/MS/RJ
SHORT TERM...MS/RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS