Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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341 FXUS64 KOHX 110627 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 127 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Quiet night across the mid state, with clear skies allowing for viewing of the rare aurora this far south yesterday evening. Temps have dropped quickly with calm winds and clear skies to dewpoint temps in the mid 40s to low 50s, so would not be surprised to see fog development soon. Nighttime RGB satellite shows fog development in the river valleys to our east at higher elevations, and starting to develop in the Cumberland and Duck River valleys here in middle TN. Will continue to keep an eye on satellite and local obs to see how widespread fog development will be. Another trough will swing southeast through the Midwest/eastern Great Lakes region today, and will be close enough that some light rain will be possible for eastern zones. Added in mention of precip mainly late morning through the afternoon in the east. Upper level ridging will move in Sunday so highs should get to be around 80 under mostly sunny skies. Approaching trough will bring cloud cover from the southwest late in the afternoon and evening, and rain chances increase into the day Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Upper trough/closed low over the Plains will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday, especially in the evening and overnight into Tuesday. Timing is not lining up for increased chances for strong/severe storms on Tuesday, but right now, Tuesday looks to be the day to keep an eye on. Nothing concerning at the moment with current model solutions, though. Rain chances will continue into Wednesday, but mainly for the east as the upper low will be just off to our east. Wednesday night into early Thursday should be dry as we get brief ridging aloft, but another fast moving shortwave will bring rain chances back for Thursday afternoon and evening. Southwest flow and another trough will keep rain chances in Friday and into next weekend. Model solutions are not in great agreement Friday onward, so not too confident by any means on timing much less any chances for strong to severe storms. Total rainfall next week looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch range from Monday through Saturday, so looks like we will keep the more active wet pattern after this brief dry break this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions currently, but patchy to locally dense fog may develop overnight causing some flight category restrictions. Any locations with vis impacts will quickly improve after sunrise. VFR through the remainder of the TAF period thereafter. Winds will pick up in speed by the afternoon, shifting from SW/W to W/NW after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 78 53 81 59 / 10 0 0 10 Clarksville 76 51 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 70 46 73 53 / 30 0 0 0 Columbia 78 51 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 72 48 75 55 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 70 46 73 52 / 30 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 77 51 79 58 / 10 0 0 20 Murfreesboro 78 48 80 56 / 30 0 0 10 Waverly 78 53 80 59 / 10 0 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Adcock