Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250503
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...Update to Aviation for 06Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Storms have taken a bit longer to get going today, but we are now
starting to see updrafts take shape. We will see scattered storms
for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening with
convective outflows kicking up additional storms. Convection
should then simmer down from mid to late evening.

By late tonight, short wave energy will track east across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. A low level jet stream will veer into
the region ahead of this feature and induce isentropic upglide.
Looking at RAP data between 08 and 15 UTC, parcels only look
weakly capped between 900 and 825 mb. We therefore think that
elevated convection will be possible during this time frame across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Convective chances by Friday afternoon are then heavily dependent
on the coverage of morning convection and any remaining outflow
boundaries. If morning convection throws outflow towards the
east, the eastern Ozarks may see the best chance for afternoon
storms. If coverage is more limited in the morning, scattered
afternoon convection will be possible across the entire area.
Inspection of forecast soundings does reveal potential for
downbursts and perhaps some large hail with afternoon convection.

As for temperatures, lows tonight and highs on Friday look pretty
similar to what we have been seeing. Lows should range from the
lower to middle 60s over the eastern Ozarks to the middle and
upper 60s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Highs on
Friday will range from the lower and middle 80s across the eastern
Ozarks to the middle and upper 80s across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The potential for isolated storms will then persist into
Saturday. Coverage will be more limited as weak upper level height
rises will be overspreading the region. We should tack on a few
degrees for highs on Saturday as mid-level temperatures begin to
warm.

The Sunday through Tuesday time frame then look dry as an upper
level ridge shifts east and builds into the region. Temperatures
also look rather warm with highs warming into the upper 80s and
lower 90s.

Global models then vary as we get into the last half of next week.
The ECMWF and Canadian models knock down the ridge and keep us in
a weak west or southwest flow aloft. This would give us a low-end
threat for a few storms, although we will have to watch the
remnants of the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS
actually puts us in a pseudo northwest flow aloft. This would
open the door for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and
afternoon pop-up storms. Regardless, temperatures should remain
well above normal to finish next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

A few isolated showers/storms continue early this morning across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. This activity is
expected to remain north of the TAF sites and dissipate during the
early overnight hours.

Additional storms across central Kansas are expected to track
southeast into the area later tonight into Friday morning. There
are questions on how far south this activity will make it.
Isolated pop up type storms will be possible again Friday
afternoon into the early evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise



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