Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Widespread light to moderate rainfall was ongoing across most of
the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon
as nearly vertically stacked low across the plains was making its
way slowly east. Southerly flow from the Gulf, was producing rain
from the coast to the Canadian border as the storm system in the
plains pushes against an amplified ridge located over the

Low level jet energy will aid in bringing a continued moisture
feed from the Gulf into the region tonight and through the day
Thursday. The tight surface pressure gradient between the low and
the ridge to the east, will allow for gusty surface winds through
the period as well.

With limited lift available, rainfall amounts of a half in an hour
or less are expected, though few breaks in the rain are
anticipated, with the exception of a possible "dry slot" period
early Thursday morning. Rainfall total are forecast to be between
1-2 inches with local amounts up to 3 inches in some spots.

With the current wet soil conditions and the long duration of
rain expected, we are expecting that some slow rises on area
streams and rivers will occur. Where rainfall is heaviest, some
minor, localized flooding may also be possible.

Winds, as a result of the tight surface gradient, will be breezy
with gusts from 30 to 45mph at times. The strongest gusts will be
generally west of I-49.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

By Thursday evening, the storm system will have made its way over
the Missouri Bootheel with lingering light rain falling across
the area into Friday morning and winds becoming northerly. Current
forecast models and gridded guidance suggest that showers will
linger into Friday afternoon. With cloud cover, windy conditions
and temperatures only climbing into the lower to middle 50s,
Friday looks to be a rather raw day. Actually, looking at wind
chill potential, feels like temperatures may be in the 30s at
times during the day.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will then move into
the region for the weekend, which should make for a pleasant
reprieve from the cold, windy and wet conditions expected to end
this work week.

Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s to upper 30s thanks to
clear skies for the weekend.

Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for the beginning of next
week which will bring the potential for cooler temperatures and
slight rain chances for Monday through Wednesday.

Overnight lows next week look to fall into the 30s which may
bring the first potential frost/freeze headlines as we head to
the tail end of this years growing season.

In general, most of the Ozarks has had its first fall
frost/freeze by Mid October and has had a frost/freeze 90 percent
of the time by the second week of November.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

A broad band of cloud cover and rain extended from the Gulf Coast
to the Canadian border as a storm system in the plains was
pressing against an amplified ridge to the east of the Mississippi
River. This feature is expected to remain in place through
tonight and most of the day Thursday. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings
will develop and remain in place this evening and Thursday the
next 24 to 36 hours.

An isolated thunderstorm embedded in the more broad area of
stratiform rain may allow for periods of low MVFR to IFR
visibilities where rain is occurring.




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