228
FXUS63 KSGF 201131
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
531 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Anomalously cold temperatures continue through Tuesday. Daily
  highs in the upper teens to 20s. Overnight lows in the single
  digits to lower teens.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect with wind chills as low
  as -5 to -15 degrees. This will create dangerously cold
  conditions for outdoor activities and sensitive groups.

- Mostly dry conditions ahead, with precipitation chances less
  than 10% through Friday. Temperatures return closer to normal
  (upper 30s to 40s) through mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

A cold area of surface high pressure now over the Ozarks will
remain in place today with highs this afternoon in the upper
teens to middle 20s, which is 20 to 25 degrees below average for
this time of year. Winds will be light into this evening but
will begin to increase during the late evening and overnight.

In addition to the cold air the region will remain dry today
with a very dry airmass measured by upper air sounding from 00z.
The airmass only showed 0.05 inches of moisture. This is below
the 10th percentile for this time of year. With that said, some
of the models are spitting out some flurries of light
precipitation. At this point however, if a flake or two of snow
falls that would be more than expected.

For tonight temperatures will fall into the single digits with
portions of central Missouri falling into the 0 to -5 degree
range. The combination of lows in the single digits through
Tuesday morning and increasing winds, thanks to an approaching
airmass, will produce minimum wind chills from 0 to -15 degrees
by Tuesday morning. With the potential for these very cold wind
chills, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from Midnight
tonight through noon Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Tuesday night-Wednesday: The upper level pattern will begin to
shift and become slightly more zonal Tuesday night with surface
low pressure moving across the northern plains and a cold front
trailing across the plains. Ahead of the front, winds will
increase but the southerly direction will bring the beginnings
of a warming trend to the region for the middle of the week with
highs in the middle to upper 30s Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday: The upper-level trough and surface features
then shift east of the region with mid-level height rises
building into the area through the end of the week and into the
weekend. This will support a warming trend through mid to late
week, including temperatures above freezing. The warm up will
be accompanied by breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 mph.
The gradual warming of temperatures to near average continues
through the end of the week and into the weekend, with highs
pushing into the upper 30s and lower 40s by Friday. The region
will remain dry through the end of the week.

By the weekend, an active southwest flow pattern digs a trough
across the western CONUS. Ensemble guidance does bring rain
chances into the area late Saturday into Sunday, though there
remains uncertainties on the timing and location of highest
precipitation chances. Current expectations remain 10-30%
chances for precipitation. The precipitation should be rain as
temperatures are forecast to reach near average to a few
degrees above average in the 40s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

High pressure over the region will keep light winds and VFR
flight conditions in place across the Ozarks. High clouds will
move over the region with increasing middle level clouds by
Monday evening though VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Tuesday for KSZ073.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-089>092-094>097-
     102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch