774
FXUS64 KTSA 101030
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Seasonably pleasant weather will transpire across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas today. Latest GOES-16 water vapor satellite
imagery shows a mid/upper-level cutoff low swirling over the Great
Basin region early this morning. Short-range model guidance
indicates shortwave ridging developing upstream over the
Southern/Central Plains later this morning. At the surface, high
pressure will continue building into the region, keeping a light
to moderate northerly breeze in place. As such, anticipate a
seasonably warm day, under mostly sunny skies, with highs ranging
from the mid-upper 70s. A few locations in the Arkansas River
Valley and near the Red River may reach the lower 80s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Mid/upper-level ridging ahead of a cutoff low, positioned over the
Great Basin, will continue to provide pleasant, dry, and mild
weather tonight and again on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will begin to increase again beginning on Sunday morning
as the cutoff low begins to slide over the Plains. The slow
progression of the low will cause precipitation chances to linger
into Tuesday morning or afternoon, with drier conditions by
Tuesday evening. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to
fall between late Sunday night through early Monday evening. As
far as severe thunderstorm potential is concerned, latest medium-
range model guidance indicates the best support and instability
will mostly stay south of the Red River, with limited instability
across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through
Monday night. Therefore, the overall chance for organized severe
weather seems to be on the low side at this time. However, still
cannot completely rule out a chance for a few severe
thunderstorms, especially on Monday afternoon along and near the
Red River, when instability maximizes and lapse rates are
steepest. A bigger and more widespread threat will be moderate to
heavy rainfall. With recent heavy rainfall over the past couple of
weeks, flooding and flash flooding could certainly become a
concern.

Another mid/upper-level trough will move across the Rockies and
over the Plains on Wednesday and/or Thursday, bringing another
chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region ahead
of an approaching cold front forecast to push through the area on
Thursday. With several discrepancies still occurring in
deterministic models and ensembles with regards to timing and
evolution, details of this storm system are still uncertain at the
moment.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly wind
gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range remain expected at MLC and the W AR
terminals late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   79  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   78  55  82  58 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   77  51  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   75  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   73  52  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  52  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
F10   75  55  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   78  55  80  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22