Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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719 FXUS64 KTSA 091600 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1100 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A few elevated showers/thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma late this morning. This activity is moving into a more stable air-mass, so overall coverage will likely be very isolated at best before weakening. Additional, mainly elevated, showers/thunderstorms are expected across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon as mid level disturbance approaches from the southwest. A storm or two could become marginally severe near the Red River, closer to the cold front, before shifting southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday with dry weather and near normal temperatures. The pattern aloft will feature a near stationary closed low over the southwestern CONUS which is expected to finally move across the southern Plains Sunday through Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase accordingly with widespread rains appearing likely Sunday night through Monday. Overall the severe weather potential appears rather low at this time with limited instability and stronger flow more south the region. The flow aloft remains northwesterly through the central CONUS in wake of the passing upper low and likely beyond as amplified ridging develops over the western CONUS. This should allow several stronger cold front to move through the region with the severe weather potential remaining much less than has recently been seen. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Localized VLIFR vsbys/cigs in fog will continue early in the valid period at KFYV with conditions to improve to VFR after 14z. Most TSRA that develops this afternoon and evening is expected to remain south of KMLC/KFSM, but will carry a VCTS mention at KMLC from 22z-00z. Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 53 76 54 / 20 10 0 0 FSM 83 58 78 54 / 30 20 0 0 MLC 81 56 77 53 / 40 20 0 0 BVO 78 49 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 79 50 73 50 / 20 10 0 0 BYV 77 51 71 50 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 78 53 73 52 / 20 10 0 0 MIO 77 50 72 50 / 20 0 0 0 F10 78 53 74 53 / 30 10 0 0 HHW 82 58 78 54 / 60 30 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...23