086
FXUS64 KTSA 080826
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Warm front currently across SE OK is lifting northward with
intense warm moist advection ongoing in its advance courtesy of
50-6kt low level jet. A zone across far northern OK / southern KS
is currently coupled within the favorable jet dynamics and the low
level warm advection and this corridor will become the near term
focus for storm initiation as it expands eastward through the
morning. The reservoir of strong instability is expanding
northward associated with the airmass change and any early morning
storms could become severe with large hail the primary hazard.

Any early day storms may continue to fester along and north of the
lifting warm front with the focus becoming more north of the
forecast area by early afternoon. A lull in convective coverage
is likely through mid afternoon as lift remains negligible across
the warm sector. The cold front associated withe passing wave
will be making slow but steady progress eastward through the day
and will eventually become the focus for renewed storm initiation
by mid to late afternoon. Veering low level winds ahead of the
front will limit frontal convergence and there is potential for a
pre- frontal corridor of storms to develop. Once convective temps
are reached by late afternoon and any weak frontal forcing arrives
storms are expected to rapidly develop and quickly become severe
from NW AR into SE OK. Forecast soundings are strongly unstable
with ample deep layer shear for quick supercell evolution.
Sounding analogs support potential for giant hail in the
strongest storms with locally damaging winds also possible. The
tornadic risk is somewhat tempered by lesser low level shear,
however the presence of strong low level cape and any more deviant
storm motions could locally raise the tornadic potential. Storms
move east of the forecast area by mid evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The cold front will stall across central TX on Thursday with the
elevated frontal zone remaining near far SE OK where a low chance
of thunderstorms will exist. Otherwise, dry, cooler, and quiet
weather conditions will overspread the region especially Friday
and Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances steadily increase and spread eastward for
early next week. At this time the pattern does not favor organized
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR elements will prevail for the first 6 hours or so of the
valid period at all sites except KMLC where an increase in MVFR
cigs before 12z is likely. Will also include WS remark at all
sites through the 12z-15z time period. A cold front will be moving
into the area after 12z, with a brief tempo group in for -TSRA
for KTUL and KRVS will be maintained for storms that may develop
along the boundary. Better chances for storms will come later this
afternoon and will include prob30 groups at the remaining sites.
Once the front passes winds will become NW with prevailing VFR TAF
elements for the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  54  78  53 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   87  61  82  57 /  50  40  10  10
MLC   87  60  81  55 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   82  49  78  49 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   81  54  78  50 /  60  30  10   0
BYV   81  54  77  51 /  60  40  10   0
MKO   83  55  78  53 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   81  51  76  50 /  40  10   0   0
F10   85  55  78  53 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   86  61  82  58 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23