Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 181057
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
ONSET...This evening.

WINTER WEATHER.
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...After midnight.

ICE ACCUMULATION.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...After midnight.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 11 PM this evening.

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog has developed across much of the area, with locally
dense fog from Fort Smith through portions of east central
Oklahoma. Visibility will fall below 1/2 mile in this zone through
mid morning.

A strong arctic cold front will move through the area late
tonight. Ahead of the front, increasing moisture and large scale
forcing will result in a few elevated thunderstorms across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The deep layer
shear will be quite strong, generally in the 50 to 60 knot range.
Elevated instability in the presence of a strongly sheared
environment may result in large hail with the strongest storms.
The most likely timing for strong storms will be this evening
before midnight.

The strong cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma just
before midnight, with very strong wind gusts and a dramatic drop
in temperature. Much of the precipitation will likely occur ahead
of the front in the warmer air, and will fall as rain. There will
be a period of several hours of sub-freezing temperatures after
midnight tonight, where a mix of wintry precipitation will occur
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The speed of
the system will limit the amount of accumulation. Still, snow
amounts may approach a half inch in some spots. There will be
light ice accumulations as well, where freezing rain occurs. A
wind advisory is in effect for northeast Oklahoma tonight for
expected wind gusts of at least 40 miles per hour. The strong
winds and frigid temperatures will result in dangerous wind chill
values in the single digits through early Sunday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Precipitation will change to all snow by Saturday morning, with
low accumulations possible through mid day. The snow will move
east of the area by Saturday night. The cold temperatures will
persist through Sunday. The airmass will moderate quickly with
highs in the 50s by Monday.


weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$

CORFIDI



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