Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011135 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Expect an increase in thunderstorm coverage this
afternoon/evening across western and central NM, with increased
chances for impacts at area terminals. Brief MVFR conditions are
possible with storms today, but forecast confidence is too low at
this time to include in TAFs.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
With the start of meteorological summer, above normal heat will
continue across the Land of Enchantment this week with 90s and 100s
possible along eastern and central portions of the state. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon and evening, with a downtrend going into Tuesday and
Wednesday. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of storms
late week, but an uptick in storm coverage is possible for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
At 00Z, the 500mb high was located over OK at about 592dam and was
extending a ridge axis west and southwest over central NM. Plenty of
atmospheric moisture was in place and the 00Z KABQ upper air
sounding showed at PWAT of 0.82", which was a new calendar day
record for 5/31. The overall setup won`t change much today, but the
height field will weaken slightly as an easterly wave makes slow
northward progress across far west TX and a new upper high center
begins to develop across far western NM. 00Z model solutions,
including short term mesoscale models, show an uptick in convection
today across central and western NM with an increase in qpf.
Steering flow will be light and would not be surprised if a few
locales see locally heavy rainfall amounts between 1-2". The best
chances for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros will be between 6-
9PM.

A new upper high center will expand to around 591dam at 500mb along
the AZ/NM border by late Tuesday, which will change steering flow
from north to south across the area. Overall, Tuesday looks like
another active day for storms, especially across the northern
mountains and nearby highlands.

Otherwise, temperatures will be above normal most areas.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will fill in across central New
Mexico before shifting eastward Tuesday night. As the ridge begins
to strengthen into Wednesday, less storm development will be favored
for Wednesday. In addition, drier air looks to filter in behind the
ridge, with dew points in the teens forecast for the northwest
corner of the state Wednesday.

There are some differences for Thursday-Saturday with the timing of a
Pacific low, depending on what model you`re looking at. The trend
over the last few model runs has been to delay the timing of
precipitation from Thursday-Friday to more Friday-Saturday. The low
becomes an open wave in the GFS with an early arrival of
precipitation late Thursday/ early Friday morning. The Canadian shows
precipitation breaking out across western New Mexico as early as
Friday evening and holds onto precipitation for Saturday. The ECMWF
lags behind somewhat with precipitation beginning on Saturday, mainly
across the northern high terrain. The ensembles tell a slightly
different story with an even later arrival of the low into the
weekend. So, for now decided to keep the timing of NBM POP`s.
Regardless, precipitation chances are looking more promising into the
weekend.

Heading into early next week, the dryline looks to shift further west
Sunday and Monday, with the possibility of strong to severe storms
early next week.

11/31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions are forecast for at least the
next six days. An increase in atmospheric moisture will lead to an
uptick in wetting storms over the next couple of days, followed by a
strengthening upper high and hot temperatures. A Pacific trough/low
is still forecast to pull northeast across the Great Basin and
central Rockies Fri/Sat, bringing an increase in winds and much
drier air to western and central NM. Dryline storms are looking more
likely Saturday through Monday across the eastern plains, while
western NM remains dry. Critical fire weather conditions may begin
to appear by late Sunday or Monday across western NM as another,
stronger trough approaches.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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