Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 290742

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Southerly flow in advance of a slow moving cold front approaching
from the west will keep a moist and humid air mass in place
through Saturday. A cold front is then expected to sweep across
the region Saturday night, bringing cooler and drier air to the
region Sunday into early next week.


As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

A broad upper trough will advance eastward today through the
Midwest and TN Valley, with the trough axis reaching the
Appalachians by tonight. Meanwhile, the local area will remain
on the western periphery of Bermuda high pressure with deep
layer southerly flow continuing to funnel sub-tropical moisture
northward from the GOMEX and western Caribbean. A quick look at
the current radar composite doesn`t show much early this
morning outside of isold shwrs out near CHO and also wdly sct
showers over eastern NC. Hi-res guidance does show shwr activity
continuing to increase in coverage through sunrise, and so do
show increasing PoPs (30-40%) for much of the area through 12z.
Shower (isold tstm) coverage should then shift east after 12z
thru 18z, favoring areas along and east of the I-95 corridor
while PoPs lower across the Piedmont. Still no higher than
30-50% PoPs east thru 18z for scattered showers (isold thunder)
with slight chc PoPs over the Piedmont. After 18z, we should
start to see another batch of shwrs/tstms get going to our west
in advance of the advancing trough with decent height falls and
increasing deep layer shear. Additionally, scattered shwrs and a
few tstms should be ongoing across far southern/SE VA into NE
NC. Low level moisture will continue to be anomalously high
today which will allow for the development of moderate
instability (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) during the afternoon.
SPC does have the western 2/3rds of our area in a marginal risk
of svr wx today, but judging by the latest CAMS (and especially
the NAMnest) the best chance of strong/svr storms locally may
not come until late this afternoon into this evening as a line
of convection rolls in from the west. Confidence in that
occuring is low. Any stronger storms that are able to develop
this afternoon will be capable of heavy rain and localized down
burst winds, but also isolated instances of large hail will be
possible given the marginally cooler temps aloft and stronger
shear. Temperatures warm into the low and mid 80s by the
afternoon (except mid 70s MD beaches). Any lingering
shwrs/tstms this evening will shift to the coast after 06z while
dissipating. Continued warm and muggy tonight with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.


As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

An upper trough pivots across the local area on Saturday in
advance of an approaching cold front that is expected to sweep
through the area Saturday night and finally bring some
cooler/drier air to the area for Sunday. In advance of the cold
front, looking for additional scattered showers and tstms to
occur. Coverage will favor sern areas prior to 18z Sat, then
hi-res guidance shows a broken line of convection potentially
developing around the I-95 corridor in the afternoon and
advancing SE into the early evening. Potential is there for some
strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon across SE VA/NE NC given
strong shear in place with the upper trough, cooling aloft and
MLCAPE values reaching 1500 j/kg. SPC has areas from around RIC
on S & E in a marginal risk on Saturday. After the storms move
out Sat evening with the cold front, we clear/dry out heading
into Sunday. Highs Sat will again be able to warm into the low-
mid 80s. Lows Sat night fall into the mid-upr 50s NW to low-mid
60s SE. Highs Sunday will reach the low to mid 70s with much
lower humidity.


As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry and comfortable weather continues into early next week with high
pressure overhead on Monday. High temps warm into the low 70s with
overnight lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s Monday night.
High pressure exits offshore on Tuesday, allowing winds to veer to
the southwest. Continued dry through the afternoon and evening with
high temps warming into the mid 70s.

Model guidance diverges into the mid week period with several tough
to time shortwave troughs noted in the mean NW flow aloft. Will show
temps increasing back into the low 80s with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into the end of the work


As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

S winds will continue through the 06Z/Fri TAF period, with some
gusts around 20 kt during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Scattered shwrs and a few afternoon/evening tstms are expected
today, starting around or after 09z in the Piedmont and then
spreading east to the coast later this morning into the
afternoon. It will be hard to time when any one location will
receive a shwr/tstm today, so just have VCSH during the time
frames this would be most likely. IFR CIGS will impact
RIC/SBY/PHF thru 12-13z before improving to VFR by mid-late
morning. MVFR CIGS expected at ORF/ECG during the same time with
brief IFR conditions possible at ORF.

OUTLOOK...Bouts of shwrs/tstms will continue tonight through
Sat evening, as a cold front approaches and pushes across the
area from the west. Becoming drier Sat night and Sun, as the
front pushes out to sea and high pressure begins to build in
from the NW.


As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

S winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts ovr the cstl waters today.
Seas so far have remained blo 5 ft. Data continues to show some
5 ft seas out near 20 nm across the nrn cstl wtrs. Given the
current trends, dropped the SCA over the srn cstl waters but
kept the SCA for 5 ft seas out nr 20 nm ovr the nrn cstl waters
thru tonite.

A cold front crosses the waters late Sat with a wind shift to the
NNW behind it. Latest data suggests a svrl hr CAA surge down the
Ches Bay arnd 12Z Sun.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.


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