Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 251501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1101 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing amounts of sun for this afternoon with warmer and
more humid conditions for tomorrow and through much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1045 AM EDT...The stratus clouds expanded to west of the
Hudson Valley this morning. They will be slow to lift today
with moisture caught under a low level inversion but with
daytime heating and mixing they are expected to continue to
lift and break up. The showers and thunderstorms weakened and
dissipated as they moved east as expected this morning as they
encountered more stable air. The weak disturbance associated
with the convection moves off to the east and the ridge
strengthens this afternoon. Adjusted temperatures and dew points
based on observational data blend with latest guidance. Still
expecting highs in the 70s with 60s mainly limted to above 2000
feet. A stray shower or t-storm may develop over CNY along a
lake- breeze boundary, but without much of a flow in place, it
probably won`t make it into our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge will be strengthening over the region for the
short term period. The core of the 500 hpa heights will be
around 590 dm and located just offshore the mid-Atlantic by the
mid-week. With the ridging in place, there should be enough of
a cap to prevent much diurnal convection from developing,
although can`t totally rule out a brief shower over the
Adirondacks on Tuesday. Otherwise, it looks rain-free, with
increasingly warmer and more humid weather for Tuesday into
Wednesday under a partly to mostly clear sky. With the
increased low-level moisture, some patchy fog may develop for
the overnights, especially the valley areas.

Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday look to reach into the
80s for valley areas, with some upper 80s possible in the
Capital Region. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s,
although some 50s are possible for the high terrain. Dewpoint
values will rise into the 60s, especially by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period starts out on Thursday with our region under the
influence of an anomalously warm upper level ridge centered over the
western Atlantic Ocean. Moisture is expected to advect northward
around the periphery of the ridge into our region due to persistent
southerly flow. Humidity levels will increase with dewpoints
expected to rise into the 60s, with temps still well above normal in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Will mention a chance of showers mainly
during the afternoon, as guidance continue to indicate a disturbance
aloft approaching from the south. Will only mention slight chance
thunder at this time, as only minimal instability is forecast at
this time. Mild/humid conditions to persist Thursday night with the
southerly flow continuing.

There will be a better likelihood for showers and thunderstorms on
Friday, as a cold front approaches from the north and west.
Moist/warm air mass in place ahead of the cold front will result in
potential for convection with locally heavy rainfall, given forecast
PWAT anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV. Greater instability may occur
along with better large scale forcing. Still, will need higher
magnitude of instability for stronger convection. With regards to
heavy rainfall, any potential hydro issues may be mitigated by
antecedent dry conditions unless persistent downpours can occur over
urban/favored locations. A few showers and storms may linger into
Friday night depending on the timing of the cold front.

A cooler and more seasonable air mass will then be ushered in behind
the cold front for the upcoming weekend. Less humid conditions will
result as well, with a north-northwest flow expected as high
pressure gradually builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low level stratus clouds have made their way to KALB and KGFL
this morning, so impacting all TAF sites. Cig heights will
gradually rise but there is some uncertainty in whether the low
stratus clouds will completely scour out this afternoon. At the
least, any cigs that occur will likely be in VFR levels rising
to around 3500-4000 ft AGL.

Low stratus clouds could increase again tonight, with some fog
development even possible especially where clouds are not thick or
persistent. Low confidence in ceiling heights tonight, with anywhere
from VFR to IFR possible in the potential stratus layer.

Winds are mainly light this morning and will become southerly later
this morning around 5-12 kt, with some gusts to around 20 kt again
at KALB. Winds speeds will decrease to less than 10 kt tonight and
will be near calm at times.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will fall to around 50 percent this afternoon with
southerly winds around 10 mph. Although most locations will be
dry today, a stray showers cannot be ruled out for northwestern
areas this morning.

RH values will be around 45 to 55 percent on Tuesday and
Wednesday with mainly dry conditions. Southerly winds will
continue to be around 5 to 10 mph. The next chance for
widespread showers will be Thursday into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Outside of a stray brief rain shower today, mainly dry weather
is expected through the middle of the week, allowing for river
and streams levels to remain steady.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase for late
in the week as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Although
recent dry weather should prevent any widespread hydrologic
issues, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out within any
showers or thunderstorms for Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/Frugis
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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