Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301803
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
203 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will push through the area late tonight and drier
and slightly cooler air will spread across the region through
early next week. Moisture and warmer temperatures will slowly
return and by late in the week as a cold front approaches from
the north, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected mainly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stratus has cleared across the area as intrusion of dry air
continues with the upper level flow shifting to WNW cutting off the
deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs have dropped to between
1.2 and 1.7 inches with cumulus clouds developing over much of the
area. The cold front is slowly advancing through the area today,
although it may stall out leaving a fairly significant moisture
gradient from west to east. With clearing skies earlier, instability
will be moderate to high, however, while there will likely be
lingering moisture at the surface, water vapor satellite imagery
does indicate that much drier air has pushed in aloft. Forecast
soundings paint a similar picture as it will likely just be too much
dry air to overcome during the afternoon for widespread convection.
Seeing isolated showers develop along the cold front with some more
scattered activity in the eastern forecast area and Lowcountry along
a prefrontal trough where moisture remains higher. Still may see
scattered showers and isolated storms develop into this evening,
especially with shortwave energy passing by in the northern forecast
area and forecast soundings out of Charlotte indicating less of an
intrusion of dry air. The good news is with PWATs much lower than
yesterday, any rain should be much lighter. Expect downslope flow
behind this front to help to keep temperatures around seasonal
average today in the mid to upper 80s as well as push even drier air
into the region with dew points dropping significantly overnight.
Any lingering showers or convection will dissipate not long after
sunset as a much drier (and more comfortable) night is in store with
lows into the low to mid 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night...Amplified upper trough in the eastern
CONUS. Cold front pushing off the coast early in the morning
with drier air filtering central SC and east central Ga although
low-level moisture around 850mb remains through most of the
day. Precipitable water finally decreasing to below 1 inch
Sunday evening. General weak cold advection through the day and
expect max temps mainly in the low to mid 80s. Although a strong
short wave trough moves through by early evening, rather strong
subsidence inversion noted on soundings and moisture above 850mb
very limited. Just a few scattered to broken clouds through the
day with dew points falling into the 50s. Becoming clear behind
the short wave. lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Monday and Monday night...Upper trough off the east coast with
northwest flow aloft and drier air advection into the area.
Surface ridge building in from the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
states. Mostly Sunny with temps slightly cooler upper 70s to low
80s. Upper ridge axis across the lower Mississippi Valley with
warm front moving through the Ohio Valley. Models suggest some
high clouds spreading over ridge into the region late night, but
still expect min temps to fall into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper heights building in the extended although ridge appears
flat with weakness along the Gulf coast late in the week.
Temperatures warming to well above normal. By late week, Weak
surface trough across area with weak to moderate instability as
moisture increases. A cold front approaching from the north and
amplifying broad trough in the eastern CONUS may result in
slightly cooler temps and chance of diurnal thunderstorms into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR Conditions Expected at All Terminals Through the TAF Period.

As stratus has cleared out of the area, expect a cumulus field to
develop over the terminals with VFR bases as mixing increases during
the afternoon. Some showers may pass near CAE/CUB/OGB with a
moisture gradient over the area and a cold front and upper level
disturbance passing through SC but showers should remain more
isolated over central SC. Drier air will continue to filter in
tonight which will prevent fog or low stratus from developing
tonight even with calmer winds and mostly clear skies late. Winds
will be out of the NNW tomorrow between 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
While rain chances are decreasing through the weekend, river
flooding is ongoing along portions of the Wateree, Pee Dee, and
Congaree Rivers and is expected to persist into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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