Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 040036
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
736 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR this evening, followed by a mixture of mainly MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities during the 06-13z Thursday period.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms may occur during the 10-17z
Thursday period, mainly near the coast. Predominate VFR
conditions expected from mid morning through the remainder of the
TAF period. Light wind overnight/early Thursday. Expect
weak/moderate onshore flow during the mid/late afternoon
Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...

A pattern change was slowly underway this afternoon ahead of an
upper ridge centered over Chihuahua. Diurnal convection, primarily
along the sea breeze, will dwindle this evening before some
showers emerge over the waters before daybreak Thu and drift into
the coastal counties. Despite PWATs only lowering a few tenths of
an inch at most, subsidence and mid-level warming will be
comparably greater than today so showers and storms tomorrow
should be even fewer than today. Besides another early morning
round of some inland fog, confidence is high for some minor
coastal flooding tonight and early Thu morning for our southern
islands as P-ETSS guidance indicates around one foot of
inundation during high tide, so a Coastal Flood Advisory runs
from 2 AM until 9 AM. This threat looks likely to return Thursday
night, but later shifts will revisit this with newer data.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Rain chances will be minimal Friday and Saturday as a mid to upper
level ridge will continue to build from northern Mexico into the
Plains. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will return
Sunday night into Monday as Cristobal moves northward away from the
Bay of Campeche. At this time there is plenty of uncertainty on the
track or intensity of Cristobal. Due to that and the limited
moisture available only went with a slight chance. By Monday night
the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Cristobal to be well
inland and a surface high pressure will settle in behind it. Light
winds combined with the surface high and a southerly flow will
result in not only warmer temperatures, but high heat indices as
well. Heat indices are forecasted to peak into the hundred and teens
by Tuesday before slowly coming back down. Therefore, SPS`s and heat
advisories might be required each afternoon Sunday through
Wednesday. An upper level trough will makes its way from the Rockies
and through the Plains Monday into Tuesday with an associated front.
Despite the jet stream being well north of the area towards the end
of the long term period, some models such as the ECMWF show the
boundary slightly affecting our area which will cool us down a few
degrees while others like the GFS show it staying well north and
maintaining hotter temperatures.

As of Cristobal`s current forecast, the possible hazards to the area
will be coastal flooding and a high rip current risk. The
PETS/ETSS models are showing maximum tide level reaching about 2.5
feet at time of high tide Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The GFS is
also showing swell and wave periods greater than 9 seconds
beginning Friday night into Sunday which could contribute to the
possible coastal flooding. Due to the prolonged easterly flow and
a possible increase in wind speeds, high rip current risk will
also be possible the weekend.

MARINE...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly over
the southern open Gulf waters, before expanding elsewhere through
Thursday morning ahead of drier conditions by Thursday night.
Onshore flow will remain generally weak through Thursday night. A
weak to moderate easterly flow Friday will become northeasterly
on Saturday as Cristobal is currently forecasted to pass to our
west. A weak to moderate northerly flow is expected Sunday
becoming offshore by Sunday night as Cristobal moves away from the
area. A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to return by
Monday night. SCEC conditions will be likely Saturday afternoon
into Sunday night with a probable SCA conditions for the offshore
waters Saturday night through Sunday night. Rain chances will be
minimal Friday and Saturday due a ridge and limited moisture. As
Cristobal passes our latitude, rain chances and isolated
thunderstorms will return Sunday afternoon through Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  88  74  89  74  /  10  20   0   0   0
Victoria          73  89  73  91  72  /  20  20  10  10   0
Laredo            74  93  74  96  73  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             72  91  73  92  72  /  20  10   0   0   0
Rockport          77  87  77  88  77  /  10  20   0   0   0
Cotulla           72  95  73  96  72  /  20   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        73  90  73  91  72  /  20  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  86  77  87  77  /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday For the
     following zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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