Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1223 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020

High pressure was centered over southern Manitoba early this
morning and extended southward into the Red River Valley. A trough
was lingering over Lake Superior and leading to a few isolated
showers across the Minnesota Arrowhead. The area of high pressure
will build across the Northland for today and then begin to shift
to the southeast on Sunday with northwest flow aloft. This will
keep skies mainly clear for today and Sunday, although some clouds
will begin to move in from the southwest Sunday afternoon ahead of
a developing warm front. Highs today will be in the 60s with upper
50s near Lake Superior before warming into the 70s Sunday with 60s
near the lake as upper level ridging builds in and southwest flow
brings warmer air into the region. Lows tonight will cool into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. With clear skies and light winds, there
may be some areas of patchy frost tonight, but guidance has
trended slightly warmer and temperatures this morning have been
trending a bit warmer as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020

An upper low will track across Saskatchewan and Manitoba for
Sunday night into Monday and lift a warm front across the
Northland. This will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms
late Sunday night through Monday afternoon. While these storms are
expected to be elevated in nature, shear looks to be sufficient
enough to lead to a hail threat for the morning and afternoon
hours. The SPC has outlined much of the area in a marginal risk
for Monday as a result. Highs Monday will reach into the 70s and
lower 80s. Upper level ridging will then build in behind this
system and bring in another shot of warm air for Tuesday. With
850mb temps warming into the 14 to 17C range by Tuesday afternoon,
surface temps will warm into the 80s over most of the Northland.
As the upper ridge breaks down late Tuesday and flow becomes more
zonal, chances for showers and thunderstorms then return for
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, although the ECMWF keeps
most of this activity to our south. Unsettled conditions will then
persist for the remainder of the period as waves of energy
propagating through the zonal flow aloft move overhead.

After Tuesday`s peak, temperatures will remain above normal
through the remainder of the week, but will not be quite as warm.
Highs will reach into the 70s and lower 80s the remainder of the
week with lows remaining mild as well in the 50s and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

As high pressure moves into the region, VFR conditions will
continue this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Scattered
to broken mid-level clouds with bases around 5000 ft agl will
slowly spread south during the day with northerly surface winds 10
to 15 knots and stronger gusts. Winds will become variable at less
than 5 knots overnight before turning southwesterly Sunday
morning at 5 to 10 knots.


Issued at 935 AM CDT Sat May 30 2020

Mostly fair conditions across western Lake Superior today and
tomorrow as high pressure continues across the region. For today,
northwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots this morning will gradually
shift southwesterly this afternoon with waves 2 feet or less.
Southwesterly winds 10-20 knots continue on Sunday with wind gusts
approaching 22 knots in the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory
might be needed along the North Shore Sunday afternoon through the
early evening; however, not yet confident enough the winds will
reach that criteria.


DLH  62  42  70  50 /  10   0   0  10
INL  63  39  74  51 /  20   0   0  20
BRD  65  41  73  55 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  64  38  72  51 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  62  41  71  48 /   0   0   0  10




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