Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021920
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
220 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 220 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

Message of the Day: Multiple days of temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s with heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected.
Given the cooler spring, extra precaution needs to be taken when
outdoors this week. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks to remain safe. Severe storms are also possible
Wednesday and Thursday evenings. The main concerns are damaging
winds and large hail.


Welcome to summer...the upper level ridge and southwesterly surface
flow advecting in warm, moist air has helped temperatures reach the
mid to upper 80s, with it feeling more like upper 80s to low 90s.
Generally, this heat is expected to continue through the weekend,
but some areas, especially in northeast MO, may see some slightly
cooler days depending on storm chances and a frontal passage. The
upper level ridge will weaken some starting today, which will allow
for multiple shortwave troughs to move through our region this week.
This will start tomorrow, as the first shortwave trough moves east-
southeast across IA and northern MO. A surface cold front will push
into our area, providing a focal point for storms. Storms are likely
to be ongoing tomorrow morning across NE and IA and they may move
into our northern counties with the front for a brief time before
dissipating. The main concern for Wednesday is the afternoon into
the overnight hours. A train of shortwaves will be moving through,
while the cold front, oriented west to east, moves south, likely
reaching central MO along the MO River. There is some uncertainty
with the front location by the afternoon though. Most solutions
agree with this southern extend, but the NAM is keeping the front
closer to HWY 36. This makes it hard to narrow down impacted
locations. We do know we won`t be lacking in instability, with
MUCAPE around 5000 J/kg across the entire area. As for shear, we
aren`t looking at anything crazy, but still around 25-30 kts, so
this coupled with high instability will likely result in some
severe storms. Again, storm location is closely tied to where the
front ends up. Most likely scenario right now is storms developing
in central KS and MO (across the entire state). Shear is
generally unidirectional, so tornadoes look unlikely at this time.
Therefore, damaging winds and large hail are our main concerns.
Storms are expected to continue into the overnight hours, with
severe potential slowly decreasing as the night goes on. Moderate
to heavy rain is also expected with PWATs around 2 inches. We
don`t anticipate storms to linger long in any one location, but
they will be very efficient, potentially causing some flash
flooding concerns.

Thursday, warm moist air will still be advecting into the area,
helping instability reach around 5000 J/kg again. Additionally, deep
layer shear will be around 25-30 kts, making way for the potential
for severe storms again. However, we won`t have a larger surface
boundary for focus and lift. That will stay further north across
NE/IA. Some residual outflow boundaries might be a play though from
early morning storms. Most likely scenario right now seems to be
storms developing to our north, where there is better forcing at all
levels, with storms potentially moving south into our area late
Thursday. If storms do make it to our area, the main concerns again
are damaging winds and large hail. Additional flash flooding may
also be a concern with PWATs between 1.5-2.0 inches.

Storm chances will linger into Friday, but the area looks more
capped than previous days, which would make it hard for storms to
develop. However, it does look like a warm front will be in or near
the area (NAM keeps it north, while GFS/ECMWF brings it south into
our area). This could end up helping storms develop. We will have to
fine tune as we get closer. For the weekend, the upper level ridge
builds back into the area, drying us out, but keeping us warm and
muggy.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2020

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Breezy conditions
are expected this afternoon, with the southwest winds decreasing
after sunset. Tomorrow morning, a cold front will start moving
through the area, shifting winds to the northwest. It`ll also
bring in some cloud cover and a slight chance for storms for
those north of HWY 36. Storm chances will increase after 18Z
tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins



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