Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 031719
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1119 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will continue through the period with FEW-
SCT100-120 through 06Z before transitioning to FEW-BKN250.
There will be some isolated 3-5SM -TSRA BKN060-080 mainly
over area mountains between 18Z-03Z, outflow wind gusts to 40KTS
are possible with these storms, but overall winds will be below
12KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...223 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure directly overhead will allow temperatures to heat
up into the triple digits for several days across the Borderland.
Expect Thursday and Friday to be the hottest days as some
locations will approach 105 degrees making the risk for heat-
related illness very high. Mountain thunderstorms will continue to
pose a slight threat each afternoon through the first half of the
weekend. Broad troughiness over the west will increase winds
starting Friday afternoon and persisting into Monday. Temperatures
will finally drop below 100 degrees by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
The upper high will strengthen over the area today which will
push max temps to 100 or a little more in most lowland locations,
and stabilize the airmass a bit more. Also, mid level moisture
trapped under the upper high will decrease slightly, especially in
the western section, so there should be fewer storms over the
Gila region this afternoon. On the other hand, a slight increase
in storm activity is expected over the Sacramento Mountains, but
there still won`t be much. Lowlands should remain dry, though a
storm or two could drift off the mountains into southeastern Otero
County and northern Hudspeth County. Little rainfall will result,
but localized gusty winds and blowing dust are likely near
storms. Any thunderstorms that develop will dissipate after
sunset. For most of us...hot and dry today with light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Wednesday...
Typical early June weather is on tap for the first few days of
this forecast period -- hot with afternoon mountain thunderstorms.
Upper level ridging will still be directly overhead on Thursday
resulting in the baking of the Borderland with temperatures
expected to top out between 100-105 degrees in the lowlands.
Enough residual moisture underneath of the ridge will likely once
again lead to the development of scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon, particularly over the Sacramento Mountains where
slightly higher dewpoints are expected. On Friday, the ridge will
shift barely to the east, but the hottest temperatures of the
period are still forecast for that afternoon. El Paso may reach
105 degrees with several other locations following closely behind.
With this extreme afternoon heat and low temperatures remaining
in the mid to upper 70s, a Heat Advisory may be needed for
portions of the area, especially for Friday. Regardless of any
headline issuances, the risk for any person to develop heat-
related illnesses if exposed to the heat for too long will be very
high, so plan to significantly limit time outdoors Thursday and
Friday, and perhaps into the weekend.

Also on Friday, the western edge of the ridge will break down a bit
as an upper level low moves ashore into southern California. Our
winds will become southeasterly and increase into the afternoon
(providing a hair dryer-like effect since the breeze will be hot).
This will allow additional moisture to push in keeping dewpoints in
the upper 30s to low 40s. The GFS shows a more widespread area of
light QPF developing later in the afternoon, though the focus will
likely remain west of the Rio Grande valley.

Saturday through Monday we`ll keep the broad troughiness over the
western US. Winds will become breezy each afternoon and temperatures
will still be well above normal. We won`t drop below 100 degrees
until possibly Monday as a weak Pacific front pushes through. The
trough will pass by to the north on Tuesday putting us back in a
more zonal flow pattern with lighter winds and slightly more
seasonable temperatures. Ridging looks to return for the end of the
forecast period, though models disagree on just how strong it`ll be.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strengthening upper high overhead will send afternoon temperatures
well above normal the rest of this week, meaning 100 to 105 degrees
in the lowlands. This will push RH values back down to 10-20% each
afternoon, with poor overnight recoveries. Winds will continue to be
below 15 mph, with afternoon ventilation Fair to Good. A few
afternoon thunderstorms will continue over the Gila Region and
Sacramento Mountains contributing to dry lightning risk, localized
strong gusty winds and low precipitation totals.

An upper trough will move into Arizona and up into Utah and Colorado
beginning Friday, which will push drier air into our area within
increasing southwest flow. This will drop dewpoints back down to the
20`s and 30`s. Breezy south winds on Friday will become more
southwesterly over the weekend, but just below Red Flag criteria
(around 15 to 25 mph). RH will also drop to single digits over the
weekend, with temperatures remaining well above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                102  74 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             101  68 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo             102  68 101  70 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              77  54  78  55 /  20  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences  100  69 101  71 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City             95  65  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                 103  65 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg              102  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     103  75 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              102  66 103  67 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock           104  69 105  72 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              97  69  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 104  72 105  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           102  69 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ         101  74 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range          101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  102  67 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               104  70 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande              101  68 102  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 88  58  89  59 /  20  20  20   0
Mescalero               88  56  88  58 /  20  20  20   0
Timberon                86  54  87  56 /  20  10  10   0
Winston                 94  56  94  58 /  20  10   0   0
Hillsboro               99  64  99  65 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport              100  64 101  66 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            96  56  94  58 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                  98  62  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                  101  56 100  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              98  64  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 98  65  98  66 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                 103  65 102  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                102  63 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells         102  66 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              97  66  97  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01/32/26


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