Area Forecast Discussion
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498
FXUS64 KEPZ 151144
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
544 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to
   daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
   across the Borderland through the week.

  -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with
   localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow
   winds, and areas blowing dust.

 - With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, daily
   high temperatures top out very near seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A busy upper air pattern across the southern tier of the U.S. with
several features all playing some part in the flow pattern over
our region. The nose of a SoCal high is ridged over the Four
Corners to our north. A Bermuda high over the Gulf has receded to
the east. To our SW is a low pressure center over Sonora. Over
our region is the confused junction of those three synoptic
features, where in, our flow pattern is light and variable, and
inconsistent. This is part of the reason we are seeing slow moving
showers and thunderstorms. Our current moisture content across
the region is very near the seasonal normals for this point in the
monsoon. We are seeing surface dewpoints in the 45-55F range, and
PWATS in the 0.80" mountains to 1.20" lowlands range. Moisture
content is not low or high, it is just average. We been seeing
scattered to numerous showers and storms the past few days, with
pop-up severe storms due to hail and winds, and plenty of heavy
rain makers due to efficiency and slow motions.

For Tuesday the general theme will be the same, moisture in place,
heating and upslope motions destabilizing the airmass, with
buildups and storms to follow. The difference appears to be a
westward shift in the focus of most of the development. The SACs
will still get their storms, but lowland in the RGV and east
should see a noticeable decrease in storm activity. This is
because the low to our south moves west across the Baja into the
Pacific, and the nose of the upper high to our N sags SE. This
looks to concentrate our moisture to the east of the RGV. Still
isolated storms east, but more scattered to possibly numerous
storms west.

Wednesday looks to follow with a similar convective pattern,
favoring western areas over eastern areas, but some developing low
pressure surface troughing over the RGV may allow for some
moisture to spill back east a bit. Thus potential for better
storms over the central portions of the forecast area.

It appears Thursday will have a pretty uniform moisture channel
focused over the entire area as an inverted wave pass to our south
and helps to reorient the moisture plume directly over our CWA.
This could mean equal rain/storm chances across the CWA, with
high pops mountains.

As we move to the weekend, it appears high pressure nudges toward
us from TX. Models show the deeper moisture plume shifting back
over our western areas, with somewhat drier air back east of the
RGV. Honestly given the weak pattern, there is little confidence
in the detail of the forecast, beyond stating we have moisture, we
will have daytime instability, and there will be isolated to
scattered rain and storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

High clouds linger this morning, followed by thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon over the higher terrain. All
terminals have a high chance of staying dry through the period as
most of the convection remains to the west. KDMN and KTCS are
most favored to see a nearby TS later today (~20% chance) coming
off the Gila Region. An outflow boundary is modeled to progress
west to east through the evening, resulting in gusts to near 25kts
from the W. Otherwise, winds will be AOB 10kts from W-SW with
light and variable flow this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Storm activity will be favored in western areas through Wednesday
with heavy rainfall potential as somewhat drier air moves in from
the east. Storm chances increase area- wide later in the week
with a low threat of flash flooding, especially over recent burn
scars, as the moisture plume sets up over the region. Storms will
be capable of producing frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty
outflow winds. Winds will be light to modestly breezy otherwise
with near normal temperatures through the week.

Min RHs will be 15-30% below 7500ft, 25-50% above 7500ft through
the week. Vent rates will be fair to very good through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0  20
Sierra Blanca            89  67  91  69 /  10  10  20  40
Las Cruces               95  70  95  70 /  10  20   0  30
Alamogordo               94  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               70  52  74  52 /  30  10  30  10
Truth or Consequences    94  71  95  70 /  30  20  30  40
Silver City              87  62  86  61 /  70  50  70  60
Deming                   97  72  95  70 /  20  40  20  40
Lordsburg                94  68  91  67 /  60  60  60  60
West El Paso Metro       95  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  30
Dell City                94  71  97  72 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             97  75  97  76 /  10  20  20  40
Loma Linda               89  67  90  68 /  10  10   0  20
Fabens                   96  74  97  74 /  10  10   0  20
Santa Teresa             95  73  95  73 /  10  20  10  30
White Sands HQ           95  74  97  74 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range            95  69  96  70 /  10  20  10  30
Hatch                    97  70  98  70 /  20  20  20  40
Columbus                 96  73  95  73 /  10  40  20  50
Orogrande                93  71  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  80  58  84  58 /  30  10  30  10
Mescalero                81  58  85  58 /  30  10  30  10
Timberon                 78  55  81  56 /  20  10  20  10
Winston                  87  58  87  58 /  60  40  60  50
Hillsboro                93  66  94  65 /  40  40  40  50
Spaceport                95  67  95  67 /  20  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             87  57  88  56 /  70  50  80  60
Hurley                   90  64  88  63 /  60  50  60  50
Cliff                    95  64  93  64 /  70  60  80  60
Mule Creek               91  62  89  61 /  70  40  80  70
Faywood                  90  65  90  65 /  40  40  50  50
Animas                   93  68  90  67 /  60  70  70  70
Hachita                  93  68  90  67 /  40  60  50  60
Antelope Wells           91  66  87  66 /  60  80  70  70
Cloverdale               86  62  81  62 /  80  70  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson