Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 250402
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1102 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Remainder of tonight)
Issued at 804 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Latest model guidance suggests that a 500-mb ridge building
northwestward into the southern Mid-Atlantic states will remain the
dominant influence on local weather conditions overnight. Thus,
although a few showers or storms may still impact far southeastern
and northwestern portions of the CWFA early this evening, we expect
any convection that manages to develop in the region to dissipate
rather quickly by 03Z, with dry conditions thereafter. As flow aloft
backs to the south along the western rim of the ridge, a gradual
increase in mid/high-level clouds can be expected after Midnight, and
this should confine the threat for patchy fog to the larger river
valleys of northeast AL early Monday morning. Otherwise, we
anticipate another warm/muggy night with lows only falling into the
m-u 60s and light SE winds.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

For Memorial Day tomorrow, we will be stuck in between an upper
level low to our west and a ridge to our east. A sfc low that
develops in the Gulf will increase our southeasterly winds and pull
in additional moisture and WAA. We will see daytime highs reach the
upper 80s with heat index values pushing into the lower 90s. Be
weather aware tomorrow if you have any outdoor activities planned as
diurnal heating will once again bring showers and thunderstorms
across the TN Valley mainly during the afternoon to early evening
hours.

Greater coverage is expected on Tuesday as a shortwave moves out
ahead of the approaching upper level low. Combined with the
lingering cloud cover, temps will be a tad cooler in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the
primary threat. Vast cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

A cutoff low spinning over Texas and Oklahoma will lead to continued
moisture advection into the Tennessee Valley, leading to warm, humid
conditions with chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
With the proximity of the cooler air mass aloft as well as the higher
humidity, temperatures will only be able to max out in the low-to-mid
80s this week.

The cutoff low gets pushed closer on Thursday, as it
briefly gets picked up by the upper-level flow, then it cuts itself
off again, now more over Arkansas and Louisiana Thursday evening
through Friday. This will only enhance moisture advection and
increase instability across the region, with lobes of vorticity
moving through enhancing thunderstorm activity Thursday and Friday
afternoon and evening. Expect greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms each of these days. Saturday, the cut-off low starts to
weaken and dissipate as the ridge which had been fairly stationary
over the Rockies starts to say "excuse me" and shove its way
eastward over the Central Plains. This should lower but won`t
completely remove chances for showers and thunderstorms over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

No changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning. VFR conditions
will persist overnight, although the coverage of mid/high-lvl clouds
will gradually increase from the south, reducing the threat for BR/FG
development at the terminals. However, some patchy fog will
certainly be possible through 13Z in local river valleys and near
large bodies of water. Sct convection will develop by early Monday
aftn across much of the region, as a weak upper-lvl disturbance moves
northward and interacts with the moist/unstable airmass locally.
This has warranted PROB30 groups from 17-01Z, but the threat for
storms could easily last into the early evening hours at either
airport. Sfc flow will remain from the SE thru the TAF period, with
speeds in the 5-10 knot range.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...McCoy
AVIATION...70/DD

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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