Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 301024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
624 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a drier and cooler airmass will settle into
the region through Monday. A warm front will lift north across
the Ohio Valley through mid week, bringing warmer temperatures
and the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some areas of valley fog have developed across southern and
eastern portions of our area, with some of this fog locally
dense. A secondary cold front will continue to push east across
the region through mid morning and as it does, some slightly
drier dewpoints will advect in. Suppose this may mitigate the
fog somewhat but have issued an SPS to account for the locally
dense fog. Otherwise, surface high pressure will continue to
build in from the west today. With some weak low level CAA and
some lingering low level moisture, expect to see some scattered
cu development from late morning into this afternoon. Highs
today will range from near 70 in the north to the low to
possibly mid 70s across the far south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build slowly southeast
into the region tonight through Sunday. This will provide for
dry and continued cool conditions. Lows tonight will be in the
mid 40s to lower 50s with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extended period begins Sunday night with surface high pressure
centered over Ohio and northwest flow aloft. This will provide
one more day of clear skies with low humidity. Latest guidance
is now bringing low temperatures down into the low-mid 40s on
Monday morning, with highs Monday afternoon in the low 70s.

The high shifts east by Tuesday, so return flow around the high
lifts temperatures back to near normal values in the upper 70s to
around 80, along with increasing dewpoints to near 60. A weak mid-
level disturbance glances across the far northern parts of the
forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. Blended guidance has pulled this
feature a bit to the north for the past few runs, leaving slight
chance PoPs north of I-70.

Additional northern stream disturbances will be descending down the
northwesterly flow Wednesday through Friday, with the strongest
occurring late Wednesday. An associated frontal system looks to
focus shower and thunderstorm development, though timing of the
front still has high uncertainty at this point. For this reason,
left the blend`s 40 to 50 percent PoPs. Temperatures will peak in
the mid-upper 80s Wednesday.

Additional sources of uncertainty by late in the week include the
southern progress of the front on Thursday morning, along with
waving it back to the north late Thursday into Friday. For this
reason, chance PoPs remain through the end of the period. Highs stay
above normal in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Areas of mainly river valley fog will dissipate through mid
morning but some MVFR to IFR vsbys may continue to affect KLUK
for the next hour or two. Otherwise, high pressure will build
into the area today through tonight. As we start to get into
some daytime heating, expect to see some sct-bkn cu later this
morning and into this afternoon. The cu should dissipate this
evening with mostly clear skies overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hogue
AVIATION...JGL


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