Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 040456
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.AVIATION...

Remnant high clouds from convection earlier this evening will
continue to dissipate. The combination of clearing skies, light
winds, and surface moisture from today`s precipitation will
likely allow for areas of patchy fog developing near sunrise.
Therefore, included TEMPO fog at all but KBPT which received less
precipitation today.

A typical summertime pattern is expected tomorrow with cumulus
developing during the morning and growing into thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours. PROB30 groups from the previous TAF
package were carried to reflect the most likely timeframe for
thunderstorm activity. Convection should diminish during the
evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...
POP/wx grids have been updated through the evening to better
reflect radar trends a thte time. Local 88Ds still show a bit of
convection (and good amount of trailing stratiform rain) along an
outflow boundary which was producing quite a bit of robust
convection earlier. This activity should continue to wind down
into the overnight hours...then some more nocturnal shower
activity looks possible late over lower Acadiana per various high
res guidance. Elsewhere, inherited grids/zones looked in good
shape as is per obs/trends.

Update already issued.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf, keeping
southeast winds around 5 mph across inland areas, around 10 knots
offshore. Tropical Storm Cristobal still just inland near Atasta,
Mexico. Latest 4 PM track forecast has not changed from previous
runs today, keeping an eventual landfall sometime Sunday evening
along the Northern Gulf Coast. Lots of uncertainty with the intensity,
especially the longer it stays inland over the Yucatan.

For the shortterm forecast, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over South Central Louisiana this afternoon. Locally
heavy rain will be possible with some isolated street flooding.
Another cluster of thunderstorms over Southeast Texas producing
similar conditions as well. All of this activity expected to
diminish by sunset this evening, with low end chances into
Thursday morning. Expect somewhat of a repeat for Thursday
afternoon, but with slightly less chances, more of 30-40% over
South Central Louisiana, slightly less elsewhere.

By Friday, will have a little more influence of a building upper
level ridge from the west that should inhibit convection to 20-40%
in the afternoon. Meanwhile, Cristobal still expected over the
Southern Gulf of Mexico, expected to begin moving northward.
Again, this exact track is low confidence, but the entire system,
regardless of exact center, is expected to move in an northern
direction. Thus, a lower confidence forecast into the weekend, but
looks to be a fairly wet period Saturday afternoon into early next
week.

DML

MARINE...
High pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast will ridge into the
coastal waters and provide a mainly light to modest onshore flow
for the next few days. Through the weekend, winds and seas are
likely to increase and build as Tropical Storm Cristobal is
expected to move north across the Gulf of Mexico. All marine
interests should monitor the latest forecasts on this system as
the week progresses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  91  70  91 /  60  40  10  30
LCH  73  89  73  91 /  60  30   0  20
LFT  72  89  73  91 /  50  40   0  40
BPT  74  88  74  90 /  40  30   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



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