Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Scattered to numerous showers along with isolated thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon ahead of a cold front currently pushing
through southern IN and western KY at this hour. The broken line of
showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to slide east
through the remainder of the afternoon, with models indicating this
activity will gradually weaken after 21z. The overall environment is
not supportive of severe storms, but can`t rule out some gusty winds
and local hydro issues in areas of training.

Skies will gradually clear late this afternoon and evening behind
the cold front. Drier low level air will also work its way in from
the northwest, though it appears it may lag far enough behind that
we could see some fog develop toward dawn tomorrow morning east of I-
65. Confidence in fog development remains low, but will keep mention
of it in the forecast.

Otherwise, tomorrow will be a rather pleasant late-May day for the
entire region. High temperatures should top out in the mid 70s with
dewpoints in the 50s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain
light out of the north, generally under 10 mph.


.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

By Sunday, the surface high will be positioned over the region and
slowly drift south from Wisconsin Sunday morning to off the coast of
the Carolinas by Monday evening. This will keep our dry and below
normal temperatures around through Monday. Afternoon high
temperatures will be in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s and
even some in the upper 40s by Monday morning.

Strong ridging builds over the central CONUS and holds through most
of the week. This will boost our temperatures back into the upper
80s to even near 90 for Thursday and Friday. Wednesday night into
Thursday models indicate a cold front dropping south across the
region bringing showers and possible storms. Timing of this system
will be important given the heat and humidity for the end of the
week and could coincide with better instability on those days.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Showers and isolated thunderstorms have started to develop ahead of
a cold front this afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation activity
is just ahead of the cold front, and some of the stronger
shower/storms at HNB/SDF could result in temporary IFR/MVFR
visibilities. Chances for thunderstorms at specific TAF sites are
too low to mention in 18z TAFs, but the potential will continue to
be monitored.

The cold front should push through all TAF sites by late evening.
Northwesterly winds and eventually drier air can be anticipated
behind the front. Drier low-level air may not quite make it to LEX
by sunrise tomorrow, and it`s possible there could be some fog
development near dawn. Confidence in fog developing remains low, but
will keep mention of it in TAF for time being.




Short Term...DM
Long Term...BTN
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