311
FXUS66 KLOX 151629
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
929 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/925 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog continue for
coasts and most valleys through most of this week. A cooling
trend will continue through Thursday when valley highs are only
expected to be in the 80s. A slow warming trend will develop by
the weekend with highs close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...15/929 AM.

***UPDATE***

No changes from previous forecasts. Marine layer deepened a few
hundred feet overnight while onshore flow is slightly stronger
than yesterday. So overall a very similar day as yesterday but a
little cooler in most areas with highs 5-10 degrees below normal
through Thursday before a slow warming trend develops over the
coming weekend.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper flow turn to the SE on Thursday and opens the door for
some monsoon moisture to move. Current mdls are not too
enthusiastic about the amount of moisture that comes into the area
and are even less so with the forecast instability and CAPE. All
in all a non zero chc for convection, but only 10 percent. Still
have to keep an eye on the fcst in case there is a change in the
moisture advection fcst.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/305 AM.

The Monsoon threat remains very low with all of the action fcst to
occur S and E of LA county. Still worth a 10 percent chc in the
afternoon through the weekend.

The strong onshore flow regime will finally weaken and will reduce
the marine layer coverage. The low clouds will also clear quicker.
Beaches that have been mired in clouds will finally start to see a
good deal of sunshine.

The weaker gradients and slightly higher hgts will bring 1 to 2
degrees of warming both Fri and Sat with little change then fcst
for Sun/Mon. Max temps will remain several degrees blo normal for
most of the area with only the Antelope Vly coming in with
slightly above normal highs. This warming will bring some readings
in the lower 90s to the warmer vly locations.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1139Z.

At 0810Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4200 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

high confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of
flight category changes could be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a
30 percent chc of 1 to 3 hours of SCT conds in the afternoon for
sites with no clearing fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
SCT conds 20Z-23Z. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT-SKC conds could arrive as
early as 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/643 AM.

Today through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the coastal
waters. For Friday through Saturday, winds will begin to increase
with a 20-40% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox