Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290451 AAC
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1151 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.UPDATE...

The cold front will continue to push slowly east through the area
overnight, exiting toward early Friday morning. Any lingering
showers associated with the front will move out of the area in the
next few hours, with lingering low level frontogenesis response.
Any additional rainfall amounts will be light.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Cold front will push slowly east through the area overnight,
exiting the southeast toward early Friday morning. Any lingering
showers will exit the area to the east in the next few hours.
Some ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet AGL may linger for a few hours
at Kenosha, before rising above 3000 feet AGL overnight. Light
winds should become northwest after the front moves through.

Clouds should move out of the area from west to east overnight
and remain clear into early Friday morning. Northwest winds will
become gusty at times Friday. Diurnal cumulus clouds should be
scattered to broken around 5000 feet AGL late Friday morning and
afternoon. A few showers may occur in the afternoon, though left
mention out of TAFs for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 857 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020)

UPDATE...

The cold front will continue to push east through the area late
this evening and overnight, exiting toward early Friday morning.
Any lingering showers associated with the front will move out of
the area by later this evening, with lingering low level
frontogenesis response. Any additional rainfall amounts will be
rather light.

Skies should clear out later tonight and linger into Friday
morning from west to east. Some diurnal cumulus clouds are
expected to develop by midday and linger into the afternoon. A few
showers may occur during peak heating, until the main 500 mb
shortwave trough axis is through the area. Left forecast dry for
now.

Northwest winds later tonight into Friday will bring cold air
advection with cooler and less humid conditions. Northwest winds
Friday may be gusty at times, with decent low level mixing. Lows
tonight should drop into the lower to middle 50s, with highs
Friday only in the middle to upper 60s.

MARINE...

Dense Fog Advisory was extended until 09Z Friday for the far
northern portions of Lake Michigan, where area web cameras were
still showing dense fog. Think that the northwest winds behind
the cold front will help mix out any fog by early Friday morning,
and bring drier air into the region.

Dry conditions are expected over the weekend, as high pressure
moves from southern Manitoba into southern Lake Michigan. Modest
winds and low waves will generally occur during this period.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 642 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020)

UPDATE...

Main trough axis has pushed southeast of the area, taking any
lingering thunder potential with it. The cold front will continue
to push east through the area this evening, exiting around or
after midnight. Any lingering showers associated with the front
will move out of the area by later this evening. Any additional
rainfall amounts will be rather light.

Skies should clear out later tonight and linger into Friday
morning. Some diurnal cumulus clouds are expected to develop by
midday and linger into the afternoon. A few showers may occur
during peak heating, until the main 500 mb shortwave trough axis
is through the area. Left forecast dry for now.

Northwest winds later tonight into Friday will bring cold air
advection with cooler and less humid conditions. Northwest winds
Friday may be gusty at times, with decent low level mixing. Lows
tonight should drop into the lower to middle 50s, with highs
Friday only in the middle to upper 60s.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Cold front will push east through the area this evening, exiting
the southeast around or soon after midnight. Any lingering showers
will exit the area to the east by midnight. Some ceilings of 1500
to 2000 feet AGL may linger for a few hours early this evening in
the eastern terminals, before rising above 3000 feet AGL by later
this evening. Light winds should become northwest after the front
moves through.

Clouds should move out of the area from west to east later
tonight and remain clear into early Friday morning. Northwest
winds will become gusty at times Friday. Diurnal cumulus clouds
should be scattered to broken around 5000 feet AGL late Friday
morning and afternoon. A few showers may occur in the afternoon,
though left mention out of TAFs for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 352 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020)

SHORT TERM...

This afternoon through Friday...Forecast Confidence is High...

The persistent upper low over the central plains and MS Valley
the past few days will finally get absorbed into a system moving
across southern Canada this evening. The cold front associated
with this system is moving across central and southern WI this
afternoon and has been the focus for the showers and storms. Weak
upper level forcing has kept these storms from becoming more
organized and prone to just the initial updraft surge before then
weakening. There is a deformation axis tied to the cutoff low to
our S/SW and this could be a focus for continued development near
the IL border as we head into the evening hours. Thankfully
instability in this region is virtually non-existent so just some
light to brief moderate rain is possible. There were a few pockets
of heavier rain earlier today and this additional rain could lead
to continued minor flooding in a few spots. Otherwise, expect a
downward trend in showers this evening as winds turn to the NW and
drier air filters in behind the front.

A breezy and cooler day is forecast for Friday with highs in the
60s to around 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM...

Friday Night through Sunday...Forecast Confidence is Medium/High...

This weekend will be quiet with the front Friday now through the
region. This will usher in drier and cooler air with the higher
pressure pushing in. High temperatures this weekend will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday through Thursday...Forecast Confidence is Low...

There is quite a bit of uncertainty Monday and beyond with a
few opportunities for some precipitation and even some storms.
The first opportunity will be Monday/Monday night with another
opportunity Tuesday night into Wednesday and possibly another
chance Thursday night into Friday. The high uncertainty with this
is primarily due to the uncertainty in forcing with models
suggesting shortwaves embedded in the large scale ridge will be
the main forcing mechanism. While showers/storms may be likely,
the timing and location is still very uncertain. Otherwise,
temperatures will warm back up into the upper 70s to low 80s
Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

A cold front moving across southern WI is the focus for the
showers and occasional thunderstorms this afternoon. Cigs will be
mostly MVFR with borderline VFR conditions. These won`t last much
into the evening hours as drier air behind the front help to bring
cigs to VFR. Winds turn to the NW and remain there through Friday
with gusts up to 20kts possible at times Friday afternoon.

MARINE...

Dense fog continues across the far norther portion of Lake
Michigan but as the cold front moves through and winds shift to
the NW expect the fog to begin to clear out. Breezy winds behind
the front on Friday could result in winds approaching small craft
conditions during the afternoon hours. Then high pressure begins
to build into the region over the weekend and into next week which
will keep winds and waves light.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LMZ261-362.

&&

$$

Update...Wood
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Stumpf
Friday Night through Thursday...ARK


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