Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 301629

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1029 AM MDT Sat May 30 2020

.UPDATE...Updated forecast to add and increase thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon as developing on radar already in the
eastern highlands and central mountains and should continue off
and on through the remainder of the day.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 AM MDT Sat May 30 2020/

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. On WV imagery, an upper
low is beginning to lift northward and is currently just off the
California coast. With high pressure situated over the Four
Corners area, the result over the Great Basin is a deep southerly
flow. Moisture is seen advancing across NV ahead of the upper low.
By 00Z, the upper low should be in northern California with a
surface cold front making its way into southwest Idaho. Models
vary with timing of onset of precip with the HRRR sprouting
convection as early as 20Z while the 3km NAM and HREF around 00Z
ahead of the cold front. Have generally followed the latter
guidance, though it`s possible some isolated storms could develop
over terrain throughout the afternoon. Temperatures are expected
to once again max out in the 90s today prior to the main round of
convection. The cold front will push through around midnight
tonight, so the 35-40kt winds at 700mb should not be realized at
the surface. Sunday and Monday look generally dry with ridging
building back into the area. Sunday`s highs look to be in the 70s
with 80s expected on Monday. Hinsberger

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Extended forecast is still dominated by a closed low that moves
through the southern Great Basin. We may see enough moisture from
this system on Tuesday for isolated thunderstorms over the high
country. Scattered showers and thunderstorms is more possible
Wednesday and Thursday as the system moves inland. Friday looks to
be the best bet for widespread showers and thunderstorms as the low
track through Utah. By Saturday, we may have enough moisture for
continued showers across the high country. Temperatures during this
time will be slightly above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday but cool
down closer to normal for the latter half of the week with the
additional cloud cover.


Expect breezy conditions this afternoon as a cold front approaches
the region. Thunderstorms are once again possible, most likely this
afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds may accompany storms.
Expect vfr conditions mostly except temporarily near storms.


FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds are
likely near thunderstorms both days. Otherwise, breezy conditions
are likely this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.
Humidities in the teens to low 20s are likely this afternoon with
Haines indices of 5s with areas of 6s.




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