Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041717
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a busy night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Two thunderstorm complexes were converging upon each other
which could end up creating some severe weather and flash
flooding.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for several counties over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, mainly for the risk of
damaging wind gusts.

So a stormy morning is in store, with some locations receiving
excessive rainfall. This activity should dissipate or move out of
the Ozarks by mid day. There is a chance that additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon and evening,
however, this will depend upon how worked over the airmass is.

Look for highs to warm into the 80s today under a mix of sun and
clouds.

For tonight, humid conditions will persist with lows only dropping
to the low 70s. We could experience some scattered thunderstorms
tonight`s as small disturbances move overhead on the northeast
periphery of a dirty ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

For Friday, a moist and unstable airmass will continue over the
Ozarks while remaining positioned under a zone in which
weak upper waves will likely trigger scattered convection.
Therefore we will continue scattered chances for rain as
temperatures warm into the 80s. It will feel quite muggy in some
places with heat indices reaching the mid and upper 90s.

By Friday night through Saturday, a backdoor surface front
could provide sufficient low level convergence for additional
scattered thunderstorms across southern Missouri. The upper ridge
will over this feature will be strongest on Saturday, however,
most models have a QPF signal.

Looks as though Sunday through Monday morning is setting up to be
a dry period as Tropical Storm Cristobal makes landfall near the
Sabine River. Models still have the remnants tracking into
Southwest Missouri by Monday afternoon, potentially producing some
heavy rainfall.

Given the upper air pattern, this remnant circulation quickly
exits the Ozarks by Tuesday afternoon, followed by a strong cold
front that sweeps through. This feature will bring in a dry
continental airmass for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
next Wednesday may only warm into the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and early evening across south-central Missouri. This
may include the Branson aerodrome. MVFR and brief IFR can be
expected around storms along with gusty and erratic winds.

Otherwise, VFR is expected through Friday morning with light south
to southwest surface winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann


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