Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 070002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
702 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

An upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the area at 20Z.
The associated heat that has built beneath the ridge will not be
ignored today, as temperatures have soared into the mid 90s for much
of the area at mid-afternoon. Persistent southerly flow at the
surface and in the low levels has allowed ample moisture to remain
over the region. Dew points have increased into the mid 70s
across eastern KS and low 70s in central KS. The temp/dew point
combo has created heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees.
Thus, a Heat Advisory will remain in place until 00Z (7:00 PM).
Conditions will stay warm and muggy through the overnight period
with lows only falling into the low 70s. Tomorrow, the center of
the ridge will move east of the area and temperatures/dew points
are expected to be a touch cooler. Thus, at this time, it does not
look like an extension of the heat advisory will be needed for
tomorrow. While an advisory is not expected, heat index values are
still forecast to reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees, so
caution should still be used while spending time outdoors.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Hot and dry conditions will continue into the workweek before a more
substantial pattern shift occurs over the region on Tuesday. High
temps Monday will be in the low 90s with heat index values a few
degrees higher. Tropical Storm Cristobal, currently over the
central Gulf of Mexico, will advance northward through Louisiana
and Arkansas during the day Monday, providing copious amounts of
rain near/over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Models show
that tropical system advancing into Missouri on Tuesday. Trends
keep the system east of the forecast area as an upper trough
approaches from the west. Rain and storm chances increase over
northeastern KS during the day Tuesday as a surface low associated
with the upper trough phases with the tropical system and a cold
front moves through the area. Models and soundings show up to 1000
J/kg of CAPE in far eastern KS Tuesday afternoon, which will be
partially dependent on the exact track of the tropical system and
associated cloud cover. If that amount of instability
materializes, a few strong storms will be possible.

Some lingering showers will be possible early Wednesday in far
northeastern KS as the surface low progresses into the Great Lakes
region. Much cooler weather is in store for the middle of the
week in the wake of Tuesday`s system. Highs on Wednesday are
currently forecast to be in the low 80s in eastern KS and approach
the mid 80s in central KS. Long range models then begin to differ
on our next chance for rain. The GFS has a cold front moving
through the area Thursday with rain developing near the boundary.
The Euro remains dry. I have opted for a dry forecast at this time
until there is better model consensus on precip.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

A cumulus field has developed in our hot and humid airmass at
midday, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail this period.
Southerly winds become a little breezy this afternoon and again
Sunday morning as heating and associated boundary layer mixing


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Expect VFR conditions across the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Southerly winds may gust to around 20 KTS during the late morning
and afternoon hours of Sunday. There may be a few cumulus clouds
developing Sunday afternoon with bases of 5000 to 8000 feet.




LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...Gargan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.