Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
604 FXUS65 KTWC 092205 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 305 PM MST Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the weekend. Daily high temperatures will be near normal through tomorrow, then several degrees above normal through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A low pressure system currently centered over northern Arizona/southern Utah is expected to retrograde slightly west through tomorrow. Across southeast Arizona, dry westerly flow is dominating the flow pattern aloft resulting in another warm and dry desert day with typical afternoon breeziness from daytime heating. Over the weekend, the aforementioned low will stretch slightly south and westward bringing additional breeziness as it sweeps back eastward. Tuesday through Thursday another trough will move across the desert southwest keeping high temperatures near normal but giving the White Mountains a slight chance (~10%) of light precipitation each afternoon. Looking into next weekend, ridging and warming temperatures enter the forecast focus with 50-70% chance of reaching 95 degrees on Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. SKC thru the majority of the forecast period with FEW-SCT cirroform clouds AOA 20kft MSL between 11/06Z and 11/20Z. SFC winds WSWLY thru NWLY until 10/03Z. Thereafter, SFC winds less than 12 kts. Tomorrow, SFC winds increase again after 10/17Z becoming WSWLY thru NWLY with speeds of 8-15 kts and occasional gusts of 20-25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will continue to be near normal through Friday before climbing to 2-4 degrees above normal over the weekend. Min RH values will remain in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the mountains. Saturday and Sunday afternoons, west to northwest winds of around 15-20 mph combined with already low relative humidity in place may result in near critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, typical afternoon breeziness continues each afternoon from daytime heating. Winds become light and variable overnight. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DVS Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson