Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
248 AM MST Sun Oct 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry today and Monday. A weather system brings
much cooler temperatures and a chance of a light showers across
parts of southeast Arizona late Monday night into Tuesday. Warming
back up above normal by the end of next week.


.DISCUSSION...High clouds, dense at times, will be moving across
the area under westerly flow aloft. Highs today will be right
around normal.

Monday: Warmer with breezy to locally windy southwest winds in
advance of Pacific trof which moves inland.

Tuesday: The above mentioned Pacific trof and its associated cold
front will push across the area, mainly in the morning to early
afternoon. This system will bring a chance of valley rain and
high elevation snow showers. Liquid precipitation totals, for
those areas that see precipitation, will be very light mostly less
than a tenth of an inch. Less than an inch of snow for highest
mountain elevations. Much cooler with highs 12 to 18 degrees
cooler than Monday.

Wednesday: After a chilly start to the morning, likely the coldest
morning in this 7 day forecast package, highs rebound 3 to 5 degrees
warmer than Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday: Warmer under building high pressure aloft.

Saturday: Highs slightly cooler a weak/dry upper level trof
passing through.


.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
SCT to lcly BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru valid pd. SFC
winds SWLY 7-13 kts with ocnl gusts around 20 kts this afternoon.
Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A quiet and dry period of weather today and
Monday, with a slight chance of showers in the White Mountains
Monday night into Tuesday night. 20-ft winds increase each
afternoon at through Tuesday, but generally remain less than 20
mph. Expect seasonal humidity levels in the teens to lower 20s
during the afternoon with good overnight recoveries, increasing
next Tuesday.





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