Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 260937
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
237 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warmer weather can be anticipated this weekend into early
next week. A weather system will pass Monday into Tuesday bringing
gusty winds, cooler temps, and passing cloud cover. Outside of a
few showers over the White Mountains on Tuesday, dry weather
continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Quiet weather is in store for this weekend. Low pressure currently
centered over the NM/TX border will continue to exit to the
northeast today as a shortwave ridge builds into the area. Winds
will be breezy this afternoon primarily east of Tucson where
gusts up to around 20 to 25 mph will be possible. Temps will warm
a few degrees from yesterday under brief ridging with little
change in temp for Sunday as a weak shortwave trough passes
through Arizona tonight into early tomorrow.

Early next week a trough will swing across the Great Basin and
Four Corners region Monday into Tuesday. Impacts from this system
will likely be in the form of increased winds and a drop in temps.
Cloud cover and winds will precede this system on Monday with any
precip, continued breezes, and cooler temps moving in as the
system passes and on the backside of the system on Tuesday. Latest
model trends have backed off quite a bit from 24 hours ago for
the precip potential on Tuesday. Forecast is now only advertising
10-15 percent chances for precipitation in the White Mtns with
less than 10 percent for the remainder of southeast Arizona. The
weather goes quiet again after Tuesday until at least
Friday/Saturday when the next Pacific trough could bring some
weather changes going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z.
Clear skies thru 27/03z then FEW-SCT high clouds at or above 20k
ft through the end of the period. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru
the forecast period following diurnal trends this morning before
favoring a WLY/NWLY direction after 26/18z. Light, diurnal winds
expected after sunset this evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and lighter winds are expected this weekend with
temperatures slowly warming into early next week. The next storm
system will approach and pass Monday into Tuesday which will
increase winds and drop temperatures a handful of degrees. 20-ft
winds will shift from west northwest over the weekend to the
southwest on Monday increasing to 10-20 mph Monday and Tuesday.
Outside of a few showers over the White Mountains, dry weather
continues through mid to late next week. Afternoon RH values will
drop to 10-20 percent in valley locations through Monday before
moisture increases on Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Guillet


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