Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 PM MST Wed Oct 21 2020

Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue this
week. An upper level weather system will bring much cooler
weather, gusty winds, and the possibility of showers next week.


A very weak shortwave trough is currently making its way across
Arizona, bringing a bit of high cloudiness across the region. Dry
weather and seasonably warm temperatures will continue for the
next few days under broad westerly flow aloft.

We will begin to see a rather substantial change in weather late
this weekend into next week as a deep trough drops southward along
the Rockies. This will phase with a closed upper low currently
over the eastern Pacific. This pattern shift will likely bring a
period of substantially cooler temperatures, with highs perhaps
20-30 degrees cooler by the middle of next week than where they
are today. Some of the eastern higher deserts could see freezing
temperatures. Along with cooler temperatures, breezy winds will be
possible and could bring a period of elevated fire weather

This trough will be deep enough that it will bring a chance of
showers to much of the region. It`s still early, but could be
light snow accumulations above 8000 feet.

Warmer and drier weather returns mid to late next week as high
pressure rebuilds into the region.


Mostly clear with a few clouds AOA 20k ft MSL. SFC wind generally
less than 12 kts favoring a WLY/NWLY direction in the afternoon
and early evening hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


Dry conditions with warm temperatures remain in the forecast
through Saturday. A large scale pattern change will bring about
cooler daytime high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Winds
should remain under 20 mph through the middle of next week. One
update to keep an eye on is the increasing chance for
precipitation in the northern and western zones Monday and




Fire Weather....Singer

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