Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 062140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Much cooler today in the wake of yesterdays weather
system. This cooler weather will persist through Tuesday, before
southeastern Arizona starts heating back up.


.DISCUSSION...Beautiful early June day in the wake of yesterday`s
weather system which was moving through the central Rockies this
afternoon. Much cooler temperature wise with afternoon readings
running 4 to 12 degrees cooler than Friday. The wind has kicked
up a bit, stronger out east, where there are fire weather
concerns which are addressed in the fire weather section below.

Generally upper level trofiness will remain over the area over the
next two days for dry and breezy conditions. Highs Sunday at or a
few degrees warmer than today then a few degrees cooler on Monday.
Nice for June.

Slightly warmer Tuesday as flat ridge builds over the area. This
ridge will amplify Wednesday and Thursday bringing hotter
temperatures to the area into next Saturday. At this time it
doesn`t look it will be as hot as it was this past Thursday.

With the center of the upper high over Texas and trofiness to our
west, southerly flow aloft will seep in some moisture across the
eastern areas late next week. Confidence on the low side at this
time but have a slight chance of thunderstorms over the White
mountains Thursday thru Saturday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
Generally clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period, with
just a FEW clouds around 10k ft MSL Sunday afternoon. SFC wind
SWLY/WLY at 14-22 kts with gusts to near 35 kts thru 07/02Z, with
the strongest wind speeds east of a KSOW to KALK line. SFC Wind
diminishing aft 07/02Z and less than 12 kts between 07/05Z and
07/16Z. SFC wind increasing again aft 07/16Z, with SWLY/WLY SFC wind
at 13-21 kts and gusts around 30 kts Sunday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 6 pm MST
this evening for Fire Weather Zone 153 and much of Fire Weather Zone
152 for gusty southwest to west winds and low relative humidities.

Dry conditions will continue through Wednesday, with a slight chance
of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into next weekend. The chance of
thunderstorms will primarily be along the New Mexico border and
especially in the White Mountains.

Breezy conditions are expected areawide Sunday and then mainly east
of Tucson on Monday. Red Flag conditions are not expected, however
fire weather conditions will be elevated. Less wind is then forecast
Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Elevated winds return Friday
into next weekend.

Below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday, then a
rapid warmup is expected, with above normal high temperatures
Wednesday into next weekend. Wednesday onward, areas of Haines 6
conditions will develop across southeast Arizona. Minimum RH values
below 6000 feet will generally be in the 10-15 percent range through
Monday, lowering into single digits Tuesday into next weekend.


 Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for AZZ152-153.



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