300
FXUS65 KTWC 172034
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
134 PM MST Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures through early next week will
generally be near normal or a few degrees below normal. Breezy to
windy conditions return over the upcoming weekend and Monday as a
system passes through bringing elevated fire weather conditions.
Temperatures then warm with triple digits returning from Tucson
westward by mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Large scale troughing dominates the western U.S.
with a few embedded shortwaves within the larger trough. The first
is passing through today and helped kick off some elevated
isolated thunderstorms early this morning. These dissipated and
moved into New Mexico by mid morning leaving clear skies. Winds
will be breezy today leading to elevated fire weather conditions.
High temperatures will be right around normal to a few degrees
below normal today. Temperatures then cool to 5-8 degrees below
normal Sunday and Monday.

Tomorrow a stronger shortwave will pass just to the north bringing
another round of strong gusty winds from Tucson eastward. This
will lead to critical fire weather conditions east of Tucson and
because of this a Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of
Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee Counties. The strongest
winds will be southeast Cochise County and along the AZ/NM border.
Monday another shortwave quickly dives south through Arizona as
the mean longwave trough moves into the Great Plains. This
shortwave will keep winds elevated mainly east of Tucson,
especially in the Gila River Valley. Critical fire weather
conditions will again be possible for the same areas as Sunday and
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Both days patchy blowing dust
will also be a threat, especially along I-10 east of Wilcox.

High pressure begins to build in Tuesday and stays in place
through the end of the work week. Temperatures will be around
normal Tuesday increasing to 6-10 degrees above normal Wednesday
into Friday. This will lead to moderate heat risk late in the week
for most lower elevation locations. Tucson will have an outside
shot at its first 105 degree high of the year with chances around
25 percent Thursday and 10 percent Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
SKC for most of the period except for some high clouds in the
vicinity of KDUG. SFC winds will be SWLY 14-20 kts and a few
gusts up to 35 kts thru 18/03Z. Strongest winds expected near KALK
and KDUG. Overnight SFC winds will be terrain driven and under 10
kts, then become strong again out of the west with speeds 15-22
kts gusting to 30-40 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be near normal today with
typical breezes for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy
conditions persisting across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties
where 20-foot wind speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to
25-30 mph during the mid/late afternoon hours, bringing near
critical fire weather conditions.

Sunday winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph are
expected, with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM on
Sunday. Winds stay elevated Monday especially in the Gila River
Valley with winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts around 40 mph. An
increase in relative humidity is expected, but still remain close
to critical fire weather condiitons so a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued from 10 AM to 8 PM Monday.

Temperatures will be 2 to 4 degrees below normal Sunday, lowering
to 9 to 12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well
above normal levels by the middle of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ151>154.

&&

$$

Hardin

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