Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
851 FXUS65 KTWC 092052 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 152 PM MST Tue Jun 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be 1 to 7 degrees above normal today into the weekend. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon. Increasing moisture may start to bring slight chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Ridging, currently centered over the southeast U.S., has begun to nudge into the region with a longwave trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into northern Arizona. Over the next couple days troughing stays to the north with a weak cutoff low over the west coast of Baja and the ridge becoming centered over Texas. Winds will remain breezy each afternoon thanks to the proximity of the trough, leading to elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow. At the same time the proximity of the ridge will lead to an increase in temperatures with highs 1-7 degrees above normal today into the weekend. Right now the warmest days look to be Wednesday and Saturday. Tucson will have a chance to see the first 105 of the year tomorrow with NBM probabilities around 50 percent. The placement of the ridge and weak cut off low puts southeast Arizona under southerly mid-level flow. This will allow moisture to advect in from the subtropics as early as Thursday with ensemble mean PWAT values 1.0"-1.2" by Friday into the weekend. Initially the moisture will push into central/western Pima County and the international border region Thursday, then spread over most of southeast Arizona Friday into the weekend. This will lead to a slight chance for storms Thursday and Thursday night along the international border and west of Tucson. This is supported by a couple NSSL medium-range CAMs which show development over these areas. Thereafter expect storm chances south and east of Tucson with the best chances along the international border. There is increasing confidence in the moisture push, but uncertainty in exactly where storms will form and how strong they will be. With the dry lower levels strong outflow winds will definitely be a threat. Early next week ensembles show a trough moving through the Rockies, which will switch our mid-level flow to westerly and begin to scour out some of the moisture. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. SCT-BKN ceilings 8k-12k feet mainly in Cochise County this afternoon with SKC conditions elsewhere. Skies become clear everywhere overnight. Surface winds will be southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 22 kts this afternoon and early evening becoming light and terrain driven overnight. Winds increase again Wednesday afternoon with similar speeds to today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Winds today will remain southwesterly 12-18 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, with a shift to the west tomorrow and northwest Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values generally 8-14 percent with an increase in moisture Thursday through the weekend. This moisture will begin to introduce chances for showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and lightning as early as Thursday, though with better chances (generally 15-35 percent) Friday into early next week. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible today and Wednesday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson