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000
FXUS64 KMAF 222317
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak, upper level ridge begins taking hold over the region tonight
and into Tuesday allowing for a quick warmup. Tuesday afternoon sees
temperatures reach into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations.
The dryline takes shape between the TX/NM border and Midland-Odessa
stretching south towards Fort Stockton. Keeping only isolated PoPs
during the afternoon for Pecos County and across the eastern Permian
Basin counties. Forecast soundings to the east of the dryline show
steep lapse rates (7-8C/km+) and some available instability such
that hail and strong to severe winds will be the main threats with
the strongest storms. Storms will be isolated in nature and move to
the east into Tuesday evening. With low level moisture continuing to
linger over the plains and a breezy low level jet, Tuesday night
lows stay above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s with areas to the
west and in the higher elevations reaching into the low 50s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak front will complicate the temperature forecast heading into
Wednesday. The NAM, which typically preforms better with a shallow
cool airmass brings the front into the Permian Basin Wednesday
morning before stalling it just west of Odessa. Other models don`t
even bring the front into our area. Will side more with the NAM
given how well it did with last weeks cold front. This means
slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s/80s over most of the Permian
Basin with 90s south and west.

Our next upper trough approaches Thursday with increasing SW flow
aloft. Low level moisture will push back west into the area setting
up a dryline. There is a low chance (20-30%) of storms along the
dryline Thursday night over the Permian Basin as this first trough
lift into the Plains. An isolated strong to severe storm is
possible. Drier conditions with continued above normal temperatures
are expect Friday before another fast-approaching trough arrives
Saturday. Depending on the timing and location of this trough we
could see strong winds and increasing fire weather concerns this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through 24/00Z.
Will see elevated winds at KFST and KMAF overnight beneath a
modest low level jet. Any stratus should stay east of KMAF and
KFST early Tuesday morning as well. Last, there is a low (less
than 15 percent) chance of convection INVOF KFST after 23/22Z,
well below worth mentioning in the KFST TAF right now, but a non-
zero chance nonetheless. Worth watching... -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               52  89  58  88 /   0  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 50  92  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   52  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            53  92  58  92 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  90  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  86  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  89  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   52  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     52  94  58  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...70